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Best teams to back in the free-kicks market at Euro 2024
With the Euros starting on Friday, we look at the free-kicks statistics and assess which teams are expected to concede the most fouls
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The European Championship begins on Friday evening and there’s plenty of value to be had across the different prop markets that are available for every game of the tournament.
Below, we look more closely at the free-kicks market to see which teams could represent good value in both the over and under lines in Germany.
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What is the free-kicks market?
The free-kicks market has become more popular in recent seasons with many bookmakers now offering prices on how many free kicks teams will have in a fixture.
Usually, you can bet over or under a certain line. For example, in the match between Germany and Scotland on Friday evening you can bet on over/under 23.5 free kicks at 5/6 either way, and also bet on the number of free kicks each team has.
Often, there’s a lot of value to be found in this market for punters who ensure they put in the time and effort to assess how certain teams play and which may commit more fouls than others.
Here, we identify some of the teams to look out for at the Euros in the free-kicks market.
Spain and Italy could get feisty
Group B could be the spiciest of them all when it comes to free-kicks with Italy, Spain, Croatia and Albania facing each other.
Spain’s numbers for this metric often increase drastically in close games against highly competitive teams, as was shown in the match against Brazil in March when there were 36 fouls committed.
Their Nations League final meeting against Croatia last year produced 29 fouls and there were 32 in the semi-final against Italy.
Those numbers are much higher than the average for international matches and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the same occur when the teams take to the pitch in the Euros.
England expects…
There were 30 free-kicks in England’s match against Brazil in March and 25 when they faced Belgium three days later.
England’s foul average went up considerably in the last major tournament with 24, 25 and 25 fouls in their three group games at the 2022 World Cup, and we’re expecting similar numbers when they face Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia in Group C.
Sometimes, bookmakers can go off statistics for friendlies that have produced low numbers, such as England’s matches against Bosnia and Iceland. They tend not to correspond to tournament matches, and we’re expecting some value to crop up in match free-kicks for all of England’s games.
Unders a valuable option
Unders is often an option for some of the biggest matches in the Euros, especially for teams that play with a lower intensity.
For example, Germany are likely to have a high number of free-kicks because of the possession game they play, through which they look to wear down teams.
Opposition sides may resort to a defensive block that is hard to break down and with defences sitting in there is less chance of an end-to-end game with lots of fouls breaking up the play.
It’s important to take a look at the styles of play after the first round of group games to develop a better understanding of the tactics different teams will employ.
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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