Netherlands vs England predictions: Euro 2024 tips and odds

Our betting expert has three Netherlands vs England tips for Wednesday's semi-final in Dortmund (kick-off, 8pm BST). Scroll down for the analysis behind his selections.

Netherlands vs England betting tips

• England to win @ 13/8 with BetMGM
• Phil Foden to score at any time @ 5/1 with BetMGM
• Bet builder: England to qualify, under 2.5 goals and Tijjani Reijnders to get a card @ 12/1 with BetMGM

Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Three Lions can dismiss the Dutch

England have not played the Netherlands at a European Championship since Alan Shearer and Teddy Sheringham contributed two goals each to a famous 4-1 group stage win at Euro 96.

Gareth Southgate was in central defence for England on that occasion but his team are unlikely to play with the same freedom and verve tonight as they did under Terry Venables that night. But they can pass the test and may do so without the need of extra time or penalties.

There is no doubt England have been hard to watch this summer. Their total shots (51) and xG (5.96) statistics are much lower than the other semi-finalists and even the improved performance against Switzerland was nowhere near the standard achievable from such a talented bunch of players.

However, the change in shape from a back four to a three did seem to help and it appears reasonable to expect further improvement as the players become more accustomed to the different set-up.

While England have not got the best out of their attacking players, they are defending pretty solidly.

England’s xG against (4.75) is the lowest of the teams left in the competition and, if they can keep a clean sheet against the Netherlands, it might just hold the key to taking another step forward.

The Dutch, like England, have been far from fully convincing. They finished third in Group D after losing to Austria, although they improved to defeat Romania 3-0 in the round of 16, they were far less convincing in beating Turkey 2-1 in the quarter-finals.

They conceded the opening goal against Turkey and head coach Ronald Koeman had to resort to Plan B by bringing on Wout Weghorst and employing a more direct, high-tempo style of play.

The tactical switch contributed to a much-improved second-half performance but the Dutch conceded further chances and were grateful for their opponents’ lack of composure in front of goal.

Koeman’s backline looks strong on paper but it hasn’t been adequately protected. The Netherlands have faced 56 shots – the highest total among the final four sides – and their vulnerabilities could be exposed by an England side who, at long last, are showing signs of growing into the competition.

Netherlands vs England tip 1: England to win @ 13/8 with BetMGM

Fearless Foden worth a shot

Phil Foden would have wanted to have a much bigger impact on England’s run to semi-finals, but his head has not dropped and his moment could come against the Netherlands.

The Manchester City midfielder bagged 19 Premier League goals last term and, given a decent sight of goal, there is no doubt he has the technique to deliver.

He is better suited to England’s new system and looks a tempting 5/1 shot to break the deadlock in Dortmund.

Netherlands vs England tip 2: Phil Foden to score at any time @ 5/1 with BetMGM

Reijnders to rack up another card

England’s main threats are likely to come from the centre of the pitch with Foden and Jude Bellingham looking to take advantage of any pockets of spaces in front of or behind the Dutch backline.

It will be imperative for the Dutch midfield to provide some protection and that could mean a few robust challenges being delivered by either Tijjani Reijnders or Jerdy Schouten.

Overall, England look the likelier team to prevail but a close, low-scoring game is on the cards and there is value in backing England to qualify, under 2.5 goals and Reijnders to be carded in a bet builder that pays out at 12/1.

Netherlands vs England tip 3: Bet builder: England to qualify, under 2.5 goals and Tijjani Reijnders to get a card @ 12/1 with BetMGM

Netherlands vs England odds

• Netherlands @ 2/1 with BetMGM
• Draw @ 19/10 with BetMGM
• England @ 13/8 with BetMGM

Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.

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