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Australian Open women’s singles final tips: Sabalenka to reign again
Find our expert’s tips for the 2024 Australian Open women’s singles final in Melbourne on Saturday, plus a betting offer to back them with
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The first grand-slam singles final of 2024 takes place on Saturday at 8.30am (UK time), when Aryna Sabalenka bids to retain her title at the Australian Open.
The world No.2 came from a set down to defeat Elena Rybakina at the Rod Laver Arena last year and claim her maiden grand-slam singles crown.
Sabalenka’s opponent this time is 21-year-old Qinwen Zheng from China, the world No.15 who will be playing in her first major final, for which the Belarusian starts as a warm favourite.
Australian Open women’s single’s final betting tips
- Under 7.5 total games for Qinwen Zheng @ 1/1 with Parimatch
- Aryna Sabalenka to win the first set 6-1 @ 11/2 with Parimatch
Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Inexperienced Zheng may be blown away
This is by some way the biggest match of Zheng’s career and it is easy to envisage a scenario where a nervous start could leave the Chinese youngster in a position from which it is difficult to come back.
Sabalenka has powered her way to the final without dropping a set, her only real test coming in the heavyweight semi-final showdown with Cori Gauff.
The Belarusian defeated Gauff 7-6 6-4, firing in 33 winners and exposing the American’s second serve, and Zheng is unlikely to live with the 25-year-old’s raw power.
Prior to that clash, Sabalenka had dropped a total of only 16 games in recording five wins, with none of her opponents able to win more than five games.
That could spell trouble for Zheng, who may have harrowing memories of her only previous meeting with Sabalenka in the quarter-finals of last year’s US Open.
That was Zheng’s best run in a major prior to her heroics in Melbourne but she was no match for the big-hitting Belarusian, who eased to a 6-1 6-4 success and did not face a single break point.
Saturday’s showpiece may simply be too much for Zheng at this stage of her career. The 21-year-old has benefited from a soft route to the final, made easier by the shock early exits of top seed Iga Swiatek and last year’s runner-up Rybakina.
Because of that, Zheng has reached the title decider without coming up against a single player inside the world’s top 50, with five of her six victims ranked 75th or below.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, is arguably the best player on the planet when the winners are outweighing the unforced errors, and she has been a model of consistency in grand slams, making at least the semi-final in each of the previous six.
The second seed is fancied to record a seventh straight-sets win in Melbourne and Zheng may struggle to win more than seven games.
Tip: Under 7.5 total games for Qinwen Zheng @ 1/1 with Parimatch
Expect a strong start from Sabalenka
When these two met in the US Open quarter-final last year, Sabalenka raced through the opening set 6-1, which could happen again in their rematch Down Under.
Sabalenka has yet to drop a set in her title defence and has twice bagelled opponents in the first set here – Ella Seidel in the first round and Lesia Tsurenko in round three.
The Belarusian has not lost more than three games in 10 of the 12 sets she has contested at Melbourne Park and, with Zheng surely going to need time to settle into her surroundings on Rod Laver Arena, the defending champion could run riot early. Backing her to take the opening set 6-1 at 11/2 could be a value play for punters.
Tip: Aryna Sabalenka to win the first set 6-1 @ 11/2 with Parimatch
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