How Gen Z could throw TV football into an existential crisis

The 1966 World Cup final was a watershed moment not just for English football, but for broadcasting too.

An estimated 32.3 million tuned in to watch England’s victory over West Germany – a momentous event that remains the most-watched TV broadcast in British history and created an inextricable link between football and the small screen.

Almost six decades later, though, the media landscape has changed beyond recognition. While the upcoming Euros is expected to draw large audiences for both ITV and the BBC, the era of so-called “water cooler” TV moments has all but dried up.

Instead the tournament promises to deliver a key test for both the broadcasters and the sport more widely amid growing competition for viewers’ attention.

As young audiences shun live TV in favour of TikTok and gaming, are England’s footballing exploits enough to make Gen Z switch on?

“This is one of the first big social media experiments in terms of live tournaments,” says media analyst Ian Whittaker. “It will be a test of where we’re at in terms of consumer viewing patterns.”

For broadcasters, the Euros could not come at a more opportune time. The industry is still reeling from a huge advertising downturn that bosses have described as the deepest since the financial crisis.

ITV, which saw its advertising revenues slump 8pc last year, has started cutting jobs and introduced wider cost-saving measures in a bid to save £50m a year.

The broadcaster has forecast 12pc growth in ad income in the second quarter – albeit against a low base – thanks largely to the Euros.

While sports programming generally carries fewer adverts, it provides an opportunity to attract mass simultaneous audiences – an increasingly rare phenomenon in the modern streaming era.

More than 19 million people tuned in to England’s quarter-final defeat to France at the 2022 Qatar World Cup. That compares to just 4.8 million for last week’s general election debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.

“The Euros, the World Cup, they bring in huge audiences… they’re just things that the country watches together,” says Gill Hind at Enders Analysis.

“They’re not going to be the same size audiences as 10 years ago, but it’s still going to be in the tens of millions depending on who’s playing and how far England go.”

In absolute terms, however, audience numbers are in decline – especially among younger viewers.

Sports viewing among under-35s has dropped by almost a quarter since 2015, according to figures from Enders. A recent Ofcom report found 16-24s now spend more time on YouTube and TikTok than watching traditional TV.

Gaming has also grown in popularity, with 56pc of UK adults and 91pc of 3 to 15-year-olds playing on devices either on or offline last year.

As a result, sport is competing in an increasingly fractured media landscape that is shifting further and further from live TV.

This is perhaps most markedly clear in the declining viewing for highlights shows, as the proliferation of video clips on social media means fans are able to access the best moments almost instantly.

There is also a growing threat from streaming services, which are increasingly moving into sport as subscriber growth falters. Amazon Prime has previously dipped its toe in the pool with Premier League rights, while Netflix last month inked a deal to show NFL games on Christmas Day.

So far, sport has not migrated to streaming at the same rate as other content genres, while the rights to many major tournaments including the Euros are protected by the listed events regime in the UK.

Yet broadcasters – and the sporting world more widely – cannot ignore the shifts in viewing habits.

Brought up on a diet of short-form video, the notoriously short attention span of the average Gen Z viewer makes the prospect of a 90-minute football match less appealing. Ofcom research has shown young people have a tendency for “second screening” – scrolling through their phone while watching something else.

Meanwhile, the growth in gaming has also shifted viewers’ relationship with sport. Games such as FIFA and Fantasy Premier League have boosted engagement in team selection, but given young people more affiliation with individual star players than national teams.

As a result, football and TV executives are facing existential questions over how to keep audiences engaged beyond simply broadcasting 90 minutes of action.

For their part, ITV and the BBC are attempting to draw viewers to their streaming services with exclusive content such as documentaries and replays of classic matches, while also stepping up their output on social media.

The Euros may provide a short-term boost to live viewing figures but experts warn that younger audiences will never return to TV in the numbers they once did.

“Gen Z value social content and sports narrative as much as the actual live match,” says Whittaker. “The Euros will be a very big test.”