What to watch out for on election night

This is tracking the vote in the key states of Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Helpfully, it shows the votes received by Obama and Romney in 2012, so you can say things like ‘It’s not even 2pm in Florida and Hillary has already got 95% of the votes Obama got in 2102…’ Of course, these are only estimates, but fun anyway.

2. Remember there’s more to the election than the national numbers – look at new “surprise” states. Some real battles have been taking place in several Republican-leaning states that have become toss-ups like Arizona, Utah, Georgia, and North Carolina.

The polls have narrowed, so the focus for this election will be on North Carolina which went for Obama in 2008 but not 2012. For the longer term Democrat gains in Georgia would presage a harder electoral map for the republicans in 2020 and beyond. There are no comparable Democratic-leaning states tilting toward Trump. But some battlegrounds are perennial – if Clinton wins all three of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, then Trump’s path to the Presidency is almost non-existent.

3. Watch the key demographics. While you wait for the returns to come, watch for some early demographic clues. College educated whites have never voted majority Democratic; if they do this time, that points toward a Clinton win. Latinos have become increasingly Democratic, as their vote share increases. Trump’s alienation of this group could make it difficult for him to win. And African-Americans were essential to Clinton’s primary win, and some recent polls show Trump getting literally 0 per cent of the African-American vote.

4. See how the ground war matches up against the air(waves) war. Early reports show new voter registration and early voting favouring Democrats, reflecting a strong Clinton ground game. Compared to Trump’s more media-centric, or just plain eccentric approach. A solid foundation of early voting means it’ll be even more difficult for Trump to catch up. And in states with other contested races, such as North Carolina, these ground game investments can make the difference not only for Clinton but also down-ballot.

5. What about concession speeches? Trump openly said he may not accept the results of the election, and Trump voters are divided on whether ballots will be counted properly. If the election is close, we may not know the winner until well into the night. The longer it takes Trump to concede, the greater the angst and the greater the impact –markets could be affected.

6. Consider just how toxic Trump is. Here are some indicators to watch out for. A divided Republican party means many voters in their base might stay home. And encouraging those who do show up to split their ticket between Clinton and a Republican Senate or House candidate may be a heavy lift.

And the stakes are high. If you see Missouri’s Democratic candidate Jason Kander win, then it is likely that Democrats won the Senate. If you want to see the kind of Democrat he is, then watch him  assemble an AR-16 rifle while blindfold  – it’s certainly one way to prove you aren’t soft on guns. If you see Pennsylvania or Nevada go Republican, then they probably maintain control. The House of Representatives will be a higher hurdle for Democrats, but they are still poised to pick up seats.

7. Every election since 1980 has had a gender gap—with women more likely than men to vote Democratic. But only twice have women voted for the winner, while men disagreed. And conventional wisdom suggests if the gender gap is in the double-digits, Democrats win. Now some polls show Clinton benefiting from a gender gap between 15 and 20 points. Is Trump’s caustic language and behaviour to blame? Or is Clinton’s own gender and track record on women's issues to thank? We’ll learn more after the dust settles.