![Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](/https/www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2023/07/04/TELEMMGLPICT000341079556_16884730091250_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQf0Rf_Wk3V23H2268P_XkPxc.jpeg?imwidth=680)
![Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](/https/www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2023/07/04/TELEMMGLPICT000341079556_16884730091250_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQf0Rf_Wk3V23H2268P_XkPxc.jpeg?imwidth=680)
As victory slips from Putin’s grasp, the forces under his command are resorting to increasingly brutal unconventional tactics in pursuit of victory. The most recent turn has been the use of local infrastructure as a weapon; attacking hospitals, schools and power infrastructure in the vain hope it will lead to capitulation.
I saw these tactics at close hand in Syria, where General “Armageddon” Surovikin – now missing after the abortive Wagner coup – developed them. In Syria, as in Ukraine, Russia’s conventional military strength was found wanting. But there, the use of unconventional violence eventually won out. If history is a guide, Putin may now be about to engage in an unthinkable escalation in Ukraine.
The most important thing to understand is that the Russian military is monstrous. Its leaders are aloof and arrogant, out of touch with what’s happening at the front, while junior officers are too frightened to push bad news up the chain. The brutality of Russian command – where hit squads wait at the rear to shoot anybody taking a backward step – is evidence of its utter lack of scruples. They will do anything to try and grasp victory, or at least avoid defeat.
Last year, this took the form of trying to demolish Ukraine’s power grid, turning the lights and heating out through the cold dark months of winter. When that failed, the next escalation appears to have been blowing up the Kakhovka dam. The Ukrainian intelligence services had discussed this possibility for weeks before; the country has now been left with an environmental disaster possibly worse than the Chernobyl disaster. It has made many people homeless, left a million without drinking water, and contaminated vast areas of agricultural land.
Now that this has failed, the next step could be the detonation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as an improvised nuclear weapon. In Syria, when all else failed, the Russians allowed President Assad to use chemical weapons to subjugate the civilian population. A nuclear “accident” would be in-keeping with this deranged doctrine.
Ukrainian intelligence has warned for some time that Russian forces occupying the nuclear plant have mined the power station and wired the reactors with explosives. At the same time, Russian authorities have been claiming Ukraine will create a nuclear disaster by firing artillery shells at the plant. It’s a transparent exercise in preparing the ground. If the Russians detonate the plant, it will likely spread radioactive contamination over a vast area. This could well head west across Ukraine and into Western Europe.
The potential for an “accident” is clear. It has been reported that Russian forces will withdraw from the plant tomorrow; the opportunity to avert one on the ground may have passed. The West must make clear to Putin that if he carries through with this, then he will lose the war. The supplies of weapons to Ukraine will be ramped up, again, and again, and again until there is not a single Russian tank left intact – and he, in turn, is brought down by his own internal enemies.
Putin’s monstrous nuclear gamble is his most dangerous yet
As his unsuccessful war grinds on, the increasingly desperate Russian autocrat is resorting to ever-more aggressive measures