A shocking incident that feels all too predictable

The extraordinary photograph of a bloodied and defiant Donald Trump, with the Stars and Stripes behind him, being led from the podium where he almost died on Saturday will be the iconic image of America’s fraught election year.

The contrast with an ailing and seemingly impaired White House incumbent could not have been more dramatic. Who now in the Democrats’ ranks would want to take on the former president this November, even if Joe Biden does step aside, which he refuses to do?

It is indicative of the toxic nature of US politics that an assassination attempt should be seen in terms of whether or not it benefits the gunman’s target. But while it should go without saying that an attempt to murder Trump needs to be condemned by everyone, the way he responded will inevitably feed into the narrative ahead of the election.

Even as he was being taken to safety by his secret service detail he was shouting “fight, fight” to the audience, one of whom was killed by the shooter and several others injured. Astonishingly, Trump suffered just a minor injury – even though the assassin was trying to shoot him in the head – and was quickly discharged from hospital.

On the eve of the Republican convention in Milwaukee, it can only enhance the myth of a man who seems able to walk through anything and emerge intact, whether it be a severe bout of Covid, sundry court cases, and an election defeat in 2020 that he is now on course to reverse.

Despite the historic risk to American presidents or candidates such as Robert Kennedy, killed in 1968 on the campaign trail, Trump is happy to speak at rallies before thousands of people in a country where many own a gun. Here, during the recent election, the party leaders rarely ventured beyond carefully controlled events.

Even the close security provided by the secret service to former presidents failed to protect Trump from the assassin’s bullet, even if in the end it merely grazed his ear. Inevitably there will be an inquiry into whether they let their guard down, not least because witnesses say they saw the attacker minutes before he fired crawling along a roof.

It is too early to say how this dreadful incident will affect the election outcome given that Trump was already ahead in the polls. He said it was “incredible” such an event could take place in America. Sadly, as history attests, it is not.