France election 2024: Everything you need to know

France goes to the polls on Sunday for the second round of its most crucial election in decades.

The hard-Right National Rally (RN) topped the first round of voting last month with 33 per cent, while the Left-wing New Popular Front alliance came second with 28 per cent. 

Together, Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, came a distant third with around 20 per cent.

Mr Macron called the election after being trounced by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in European elections in June – shocking France and taking some of his closest allies by surprise, according to reports.

The French president had hoped the vote would see the electorate reject the hard-Right. 

However, critics warned that it would prove a reckless gamble which could propel extremists into government.

When is the French election and how will it work?

The first round of legislative elections to choose députés (MPs) for France’s National Assembly took place on June 30.

More than 60 candidates who received more than 50 per cent of the vote in their constituency were automatically elected. Ballots will be cast in the remaining 501 seats in a run-off vote on July 7.

Any candidate who secured the support of more than 12.5 per cent of registered voters in the first round will progress to the second. Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat.

In an attempt to erect a firewall against RN, the Left-wing bloc and Mr Macron’s alliance have pulled 224 candidates out of three-way races. Polling suggests the manoeuvre may have paid off. 

While voters tend to pick candidates who best reflect their values in the first round, the process becomes more tactical by the second round.

A weaker candidate may step aside so it becomes a two-horse race – for example, between a mainstream candidate and hard-Right candidate.

This can allow voters of various views to band together to block a rival.

The party which manages to secure a majority in the lower house of parliament then forms a government to serve under the president.

When will the results be announced?

The second round of voting is taking place on Sunday.

Voting ends at 8pm local time (7pm BST), when pollsters publish nationwide projections based on a partial vote count. These are usually reliable, with official results trickling in from 8pm.

Vote counting is usually fast and efficient and the winners of all, or nearly all, seats will be known by the end of the evening.

Who is in the running?

The frontrunner in this race is the hard-Right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen in parliament and nationally by Jordan Bardella, who could become France’s youngest prime minister at the age of 28.

In second place is a Left-wing alliance, the Popular Front, formed from centre-Left, hard-Left and Green parties.

Trailing them both in third place is Mr Macron’s centrist alliance Ensemble, which has been on the ropes since losing its absolute majority in parliament in 2022.

The latest polls indicate that the RN’s hope of scoring an absolute majority is further from grasp in the run-off vote.

The most optimistic projections from French broadcaster BFM TV give the RN 200-230 seats, while others forecast between 185 and 215 seats.

All of them are well below the 289 seats that would be required for Ms Le Pen’s party to take an absolute majority in parliament.

Mr Macron has said publicly that he will not resign, but Elysées insiders have suggested to French media that he has become unpredictable.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-Left party France Unbowed (LFI) has called on the president to step down if the election produces a hung parliament.

Why did Emmanuel Macron call an election?

Critics of Mr Macron believe his move was an act of hubris that will doom his presidency and propel the hard-Right into power.

Ms Le Pen has spent years working to sanitise her party’s image and position herself as the co-leader of a new party of government. 

Now that goal is tantalisingly close, thanks in large part to Mr Macron’s decision.

However, the French president was already under immense pressure from the National Rally given its soaring popularity over the course of his presidency.

In calling the election, he had an opportunity to take the initiative and fight on his own terms.

Initially, the tactic seemed effective, throwing the French Right into total disarray as they argued over the shape of their anti-Macron alliance. 

Nevertheless, it has since taken pole position in the election.

The president’s move did not catch the French Left off-guard in the same way, who formed an alliance that has pushed ahead of Mr Macron.

Who will become prime minister?

When the president fails to secure a majority, they must appoint a prime minister from the winning alliance.

This process – known as “cohabitation” – has only happened only three times in modern French history. 

In 1997, for example, Jacques Chirac, a conservative president, appointed Lionel Jospin, the socialist prime minister.

When the prime minister is appointed, they are accountable to parliament, lead the government and introduce bills.

The president retains some authority over foreign policy, such as holding the nuclear codes, and can veto the prime minister’s laws, though parliament can overrule this with its majority.

If the National Rally secures an absolute majority, Mr Macron will be left as a lame duck.

What are the possible outcomes?

RN minority
An RN minority government looks the most likely outcome from the state of the polls.

However, Mr Bardella says he will refuse to become prime minister without being backed up by an absolute majority, since his government could be overthrown by a no-confidence vote.

“I tell the French people that to act, I need an absolute majority,” the 28-year-old has said.

“A prime minister ... with a relative majority cannot change things, I would not be able to act in the daily lives of French people, on the country’s policies.”

However, if the polls are wrong and RN comes just below the 289-seat threshold, it will seek an alliance with Right-wing deputies for an absolute majority.

Left, mainstream alliance
The president could try to build a “grand coalition” or “plural assembly” by selecting a centre-Left prime minister propped up with support from the Greens, Socialists and Republicans.

Gabriel Attal, the prime minister, has said he hopes to have enough centrist lawmakers to build “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “Republican forces”. This may include those from the centre-Left and the centre-Right.

However, assembling a coalition will be a significant challenge given the political differences it will have to contain.

One alliance that is off the table is a pact between Mr Macron’s centrist party and the far-Left France Unbowed, which both sides have ruled out.

Paralysis
Another option is for Mr Macron to appoint “a government of experts” such as economists and senior civil servants, to form a technical government until the next election.

Their responsibilities would be limited to day-to-day affairs rather than major reforms.

Experts predict that this form of government would not last long. The National Assembly cannot be dissolved before June 9 2025.