EIGHT years ago I did some political fortune-telling that led to people thinking I was insane.
I was one of only a few analysts who predicted that not only would Britain vote to leave the EU but also that America would elect President Donald Trump.
This flew in the face of much expert opinion. I vividly recall giving talks in Berlin, Frankfurt and Paris during the spring of 2016 and literally being laughed out of the room.
I predicted these things not because they reflected my preferences but because I thought an insular ruling class and commentariat were losing touch with the mood outside their own class.
And I think much of this is still true today. Across Europe there’s the ongoing failure of the elite class to respond to the 2016 revolts and what they represented.
That desire for lower immigration, slower change, stronger borders, institutions which represent a wider range of views and a pushback against woke politics and Islamist terror is today reflected in continued support for national populist movements.
Only this week Portugal’s Chega party (translated as Enough) became the latest such movement to enjoy record results in the country’s general election.
Its share of the vote rocketed from just one per cent in 2019 to more than 18 per cent, making it the third-largest party.
And this follows similar gains elsewhere for national populists which also challenge the narrow elite consensus on immigration, refugees, Islam and woke politics.
There’s little evidence... that the established parties have successfully responded to the grievances that were thrown on the table in 2016
There’s Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Marine Le Pen in France, the Alternative For Germany, Vox in Spain, among many others.
The failure to address these concerns is why, at EU elections this spring, these national populists are forecast to enjoy their best ever results.
There’s little evidence, in other words, that the established parties have successfully responded to the grievances that were thrown on the table in 2016.
If anything, they look more lost today.
And the story is similar in America, where the latest polling points to Donald Trump being stronger today than he was in both 2016 and 2020.
In the polls, Trump leads Joe Biden by an average of 2.1 points, while in the crunch battleground states his leads are even more impressive — 5.2 points in Arizona, 5.7 in Georgia, 5.6 in Nevada and 3.6 in Michigan.
Furthermore, Trump has built on the political realignment that swept him to power in 2016 which saw him poll especially strongly among white men, people without degrees and those in rural areas. While the Democrats have been losing support among non-Hispanic whites, non-graduates and men, Trump has been cementing his position among all these groups, relative to 2016.
Nationally, Trump is more popular than at any point since he left office and enjoys rising support among white and black Americans.
And he has more than doubled his support among Latino and Hispanic voters over the past year — with 40 per cent now thinking favourably of him.
Public approval of how Biden is handling immigration? It has collapsed from a net positive rating of +14 to a net negative rating of -35
Other things are also far more favourable to Trump than many other commentators would like to admit.
In recent data from US firm RealClear Polling, for example, only 25 per cent of Americans think their country is “heading in the right direction”. And only 38 per cent approve of Joe Biden.
What about public approval of how Biden is handling the economy? It has collapsed from a net positive rating of +22 to a net negative rating of -17.
Public approval of how Biden is handling crime? It has collapsed from a net positive rating of +3 to a net negative rating of -18.
Public approval of how Biden is handling immigration? It has collapsed from a net positive rating of +14 to a net negative rating of -35.
And then comes the age factor. More than half of all Americans — 55 per cent — think “Joe Biden’s health and age would severely limit his ability to do the job”.
Only 27 per cent of Americans feel the same way about Trump.
Don’t get me wrong, many Americans are deeply sceptical of Trump and would much rather two very different candidates were standing in November.
Come November, I suspect the elite class will have to confront a sobering conclusion, that they have still not addressed the underlying reasons why so many people are utterly fed up with their political project
But if this election comes down to cognitive ability and age — and I suspect it will — then these numbers are another reason why Biden is in trouble.
So I believe Trump is in a much stronger position than he was in both 2020 and 2016 — and is now the clear favourite.
Come November, I suspect the elite class will have to confront a sobering conclusion, that they have still not addressed the underlying reasons why so many people are utterly fed up with their political project.
They remain dismissive of ordinary people, ignorant of their values, concerns and priorities.
Too often they sneer at their lifestyles and ways of life.
It means the modern Left remains just as out of touch and adrift from wider society as it was eight years ago.
