Comment
JAMES JOHNSON
Tories must now be worried just how many seats they might end up with after Nigel Farage swaggered on to election stage
The former Ukip leader may be a seven-times loser in fights for Westminster seats but he is box office
NIGEL FARAGE swaggered on to the General Election stage yesterday.
With typical bombast, he called an “emergency” press conference to declare himself new leader of Reform UK and its candidate for Clacton in Essex after initially declining to stand for election.
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He had lobbed a political hand grenade — but will his shock-and-awe tactics make any difference to the election race?
As a former Downing Street pollster I believe Farage’s decision to stand could sign the death warrant for the Conservatives in this campaign.
The former Ukip leader may be a seven-times loser in fights for Westminster seats but he is box office.
Arguably, the most consequential politician of his era, he turned Ukip from fringe oddballs into the vanguard of the Brexit revolution.
And a stint in the Australian jungle on I’m A Celebrity has only widened his appeal.
Reform UK is currently polling at around 11 per cent but a survey by my company JL Partners last month suggested a Farage-led Reform would surge by six percentage points.
Some of that support will come from Labour but the overwhelming core of Reform voters are those who voted Tory in 2019.
Rishi Sunak had hoped to win them back as the campaign went on.
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That is why you have seen right-leaning policy announcements like National Service.
Plus they hoped right-wing voters could be cajoled back into the fold by warning them that if they vote for Reform they will end up with a Labour MP and Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
Nigel Farage is named new leader of Reform as he slams ‘most boring election’
Now Farage has thrown the cat among the pigeons.
People in JL Partners focus groups didn’t know who former Reform leader Richard Tice was.
But they all know who Farage is and they like his frank-talking, strongman approach.
The 60-year-old former City trader phrased it himself that people are “very fond of Richard, but they know me a little bit better”.
Before the jungle, they thought Farage was just some super-posh, out-of-touch politician but their opinions have changed. They now think he’s relatable.
Someone described him in the focus group to me as a friendly sergeant major, which is quite a good way of summing it up.
We have polled that around a third of Reform voters would be open to voting Conservative.
I would expect that number to plummet thanks to the Farage effect.
His approval rating with Reform voters is +80.
That is as close to God-like status in polling terms as you can get.
Clacton — where Farage is standing — was a Ukip stronghold which Douglas Carswell won for the party in 2014.
Yet he may lose and Reform may fail to win a single seat across the country — and they could still upend the electoral apple cart.
Strongman approach
Take a typical swing seat.
If Reform swipes over ten per cent of the Tory vote it may hand a swathe of MPs to Starmer he otherwise wouldn’t have had.
Farage was his usual showman self yesterday in a series of combative interviews.
With a typical flourish he invited the media to join him in Clacton today, promising that the seaside town has a great Wetherspoons.
Yet many will find his forceful campaigning style refreshing.
At his press conference he railed: “Nothing in this country works any more.
I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party
Nigel Farage
“The health service doesn’t work. The roads don’t work. None of our public services are up to scratch.
“We are in decline. This will only be turned around with boldness.”
It’s a message which will strike a chord with voters.
Many on both right and left are fed up with politicians mouthing empty promises.
And Farage will offer an electoral solution for those who do not feel immigration has been properly tackled.
The Brexit king is clearly relishing a fresh brawl in the political bear pit.
Farage added: “I’ve done it before. I’ll do it again. I will surprise everybody.”
Empty promises
A man who has been supporting Donald Trump in his bid to be re-elected US President, Farage has all his confidence on the stump.
“I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party,” he said yesterday. “I genuinely do.”
It won’t come to that but the Tories must now be seriously worried just how many seats they might end up with.
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With Starmer tacking to the centre, the Prime Minister will need more policies to appeal to voters on the Tories’ right flank.
Rishi Sunak will certainly have to start making plans for Nigel.