COV-ER & OUT
LOCKDOWN-free Sweden is beating coronavirus and there is evidence the epidemic could already be over, a leading expert says.
Scientists believe the policy of refusing to shut the country down helped build "herd immunity" - and prevent a second wave.
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Sweden now has its lowest number of new cases since March, with just 28 infections per 100,000 people.
That is less than half the UK's infection rate of 69 per 100,000.
France's rate is seven times higher than Sweden as a second wave hits and in Spain it is ten times higher.
Sweden has kept infections low despite being the only nation in Europe not to introduce tough lockdown measures in the spring.
Prof Kim Sneppen, an expert in the spread of coronavirus at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, has concluded Sweden might be beating the pandemic.
He said: “There is some evidence that the Swedes have built up a degree of immunity to the virus which, along with what else they are doing to stop the spread, is enough to control the disease.
“Perhaps, the epidemic is over there.”
Prof Sneppen told Denmark’s Politiken newspaper the virus may have run out of steam.
He added: “That is what they have said. On the positive side, they may now be finished with the epidemic.”
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Sweden was heavily criticised after the outbreak as its mortality rate spiked to five times that in Denmark and ten times Norway and Finland's.
And although deaths were high - peaking at 115 a day in April - more than half were in care homes.
Now daily deaths are around zero.
And ice cool health chief Anders Tegnell is now a national hero for resisting the damaging lockdown seen elsewhere.
Schools, pubs and gyms stayed open, and voluntary guidance was given for commuters to work from home and avoid public transport.
The economy has shrunk 9 per cent compared with the 20 per cent shock in the UK.
Tegnell has also resisted "ridiculous" face mask laws, saying there is "very little evidence" they are effective and very few Swedes wear them.
Some scientists say the approach has paid off in the long term with raised immunity in the population.
Because many younger people have already had it, it is believed the virus now has less chance to spread in the way it is causing spikes across Europe.
A recent study suggested an infection rate of 43 per cent could be enough for herd immunity, much lower than the usual figure cited of 60 per cent.
Professor Tom Britton, of Stockholm University, said: “Just 20 per cent immunity makes a pretty big difference because those infected at the start of the epidemic were the most susceptible to the coronavirus and the most socially active.”
Another study in August by the Karolinska Institute found immunity may be higher than estimated by antibody tests.
Many people who test negative for antibodies could still have a high level of immunity through white blood cells that hunt down and destroy the virus.
Others warn it is too early for Sweden to declare victory over the virus.
The majority of people are still following social distancing guidelines, which will slow transmission.
“I don’t think it can already be ruled out that Sweden will also have a flare-up,” said Prof Allan Randrup Thomsen of Aarhus University.
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But others say we are more likely to follow the trend in France and Spain as extra restrictions slow the spread.
Boris Johnson has ordered all pubs to shut at 10pm and told commuters to work from home again after an alarming spike in cases.
Matt Hancock suggests Sweden coronavirus response isn't the answer as he defends UK lockdown