France election: Alarm in Brussels as shock Marine Le Pen victory today would ‘spell end of the EU as we know it’
ALARM bells are ringing in Brussels over fears a shock victory for Marine Le Pen in today's French presidential election could "spell the end of the EU as we know it".
The eurosceptic candidate could put France "on a direct collision course" with EU rules and bring the whole institution crashing down, experts say.
Far-right hero Le Pen is snapping at Emmanuel Macron's heels as 47million French voters go to the polls today.
She is looking to unseat the incumbent president in a repeat of 2017's election runoff, although the polling gap between the pair is far smaller this time round.
Recent polls show the centrist Macron's lead is only just above the margin for error, meaning a seismic upset is still possible.
Le Pen has previously spoken in favour of France following Britain's lead in leaving the EU in a so-called "Frexit".
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She has dropped her hardline pledge to pull out of the bloc, and now says she instead wants to reform it "from the inside"
However experts say her policies on Europe "amount to Frexit in all but name" as they would ultimately have the same effect.
Her pledges include a "French-first" approach to jobs and trade, directly contradicting current rules on the single market.
James Shields, Professor of French Politics at the University of Warwick, says a Le Pen victory would "herald drastic changes in terms of France's place within the EU".
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He told The Sun Online: "Le Pen no longer argues overtly for French withdrawal from the EU and euro, as she did in 2017, declaring now her intent to reform the EU from within.
"But her programme, if implemented, would pose critical challenges to France’s continued membership of the EU.
"Her proposals on Europe amount to 'Frexit' in all but name."
When the UK's referendum back in 2016 lead to the country leaving the EU, Le Pen boldly declared Brexit had "really broken a taboo".
Professor Shields added: "Her key principle of “priorité nationale” (priority for French nationals in jobs, social housing, welfare benefits and health care) would put her on a collision course with EU law."
Le Pen's calls to give precedence to French law over European law are "also a fundamental challenge to France's EU membership," he went on.
"And her proposal to cut France’s contribution to the EU budget would be a serious economic blow for the EU and set a precedent for other, more Eurosceptic, member states," he added.
"So, under a Le Pen presidency, France would put its EU membership under inordinate strain and would at the very least cease to be the leading force within the EU that it has always been."
As she bids to get the keys to the Élysée Palace, Le Pen appears to have dramatically softened her stance on taking France - one of the founding members of the EU - out of the bloc and ditching the euro.
"The Brits have shown us that you can leave the European Union and you can come out better," the National Rally leader previously said .
But fast-forward two years - and with incumbent leader Macron on tenterhooks as he sets his sights on becoming the first president to be re-elected for 20 years - Le Pen is singing a different tune.
After advancing to the second round of voting, the candidate insisted she has dropped the pledge, saying: "I do not want to leave the EU. That is not my objective."
Although her electoral programme does not name the EU, experts say her proposed policies clearly contradict the bloc's core principles.
And question marks hang over whether the far-right politician's pledge for change is merely a tactical switch as she looks to perhaps derail the union from the inside.
There could not be a clearer statement of intent to bring an end to the EU as we know it
James Shields
Professor Shields says France's departure could spell the end or at least a seismic shift for the bloc as the country has been a leading powerhouse in the union since it was created in 1993, replacing the European Economic Community, founded in 1957.
"It’s hard to see how the EU could continue on its path without France as a key member and without the Franco-German tandem that has been at the heart of the EU from the outset," he said.
"Yet Le Pen is clear that she wishes to reassert French power and sovereignty by loosening ties with Germany no less than with Brussels.
"Le Pen’s presidential programme is explicit in its aim to convert the EU into 'a European Alliance of Nations' and to end the project of 'an ideologically-driven federalist super-state'.
"There could not be a clearer statement of intent to bring an end to the EU as we know it."
It's thought Le Pen has changed her electoral programme after her hardline Frexit policy proposal proved wildly unpopular and Macron scooped the win with a decisive margin.
Professor Shields said: "Le Pen saw in 2017 that her proposed 'Frexit' was unpopular not just with French voters at large but even within her own support base.
"This was a contributory factor (among many) in her heavy defeat.
"The economic consequences for France of pulling out of the euro
outweighed the gains in French sovereignty, so it was abandoned as a policy."
This time around, Le Pen and Macron both swept through to the second round of voting after bagging 23.1 per cent and 27.8 per cent of the votes respectively.
Mujtaba Rahman, the Europe director of Eurasia Group, told The Guardian: "Le Pen’s EU policy is: ‘We’re going to stay in the bus but drive it off a cliff'."
He said Le Pen will try to "destroy the EU from the inside" and will be a "much greater threat to the status quo than Brexit".
In the run-up to polling day, Macron himself accused his election rival of hatching a secret plan to drag France out of the EU.
He claims that "she wants to leave but does not dare say so" and accused her of "talking rubbish" about the EU.
At a rally in Strasbourg, he said: "She says that she wants an alliance of nation-states.
"But she is going to find herself in a corner and she is going to try to come up with an alliance with her friends.
"The EU has changed the life of this country. This election is a referendum on Europe."
And Michel Barnier, the bloc's former Brexit negotiator, has previously warned France could follow Britain out of the bloc.
Pascal Lamy, who was chief of staff to the former European Commission president Jacques Delors, said a Le Pen win would be a bigger shock for France than Trump was for the US and Brexit was for the UK.
He said her views "totally contradict the French commitment to European integration" and her policies "are in total breach of the treaties to which France has subscribed".
Jean-Louis Bourlanges, a centrist MP, said "her programme is not compatible with continued French membership of the EU", while Georg Riekeles, a former official, said Le Pen could put the EU "into gridlock or paralyse it".
Le Pen's supporters claim authorities who want to protect the status quo led high-profile efforts to stop her from getting into power.
Earlier this month EU fraud investigators accuse Le Pen and her father Jean-Marie, 93, of embezzling €620,000 (£513,000) from their party, the National Rally.
Her lawyer, Rodolphe Bosselut, said the timing of the probe - many years after the alleged crime - appears to be completely political.
He said: "Marine Le Pen contests this. She contests it without having had access to the details of the accusations. It's a manipulation, and unfortunately, I'm not surprised."
She's also faced scathing claims by the French leader who says Le Pen was "in the grip of Russia" and made herself "dependent" on Vladimir Putin.
Ms Le Pen's National Rally party took a £8million loan from a Russian First Czech-Russian Bank in 2014.
Macron accused Le Pen, 53, of being "unfit" to replace him due to the outstanding debt.
Mr Macron said: "You don't speak to other leaders, you speak to your banker when you speak to Russia, that's the problem.
"None of us went to seek financing from a Russian bank, and especially not from one that is close to power in Russia."
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Results posted just hours after their final TV face-off showed the incumbent head of state on 59 per cent of the vote, and his far-Right rival on 39 per cent, with 2 per cent saying they will abstain.
A similar outcome in the final round of the 2022 presidential election today would see Le Pen be forced to accept defeat.
