It is often said that in Northern Ireland there is an election to decide who represents the Unionist community and one to decide who will emerge as the champions of nationalism. This time, with one or two exceptions, the story is the same.
The last Westminster election was a disaster for the Ulster Unionists, who were all but wiped out with even the party leader, David Trimble, losing his seat. Only Sylvia Hermon remained in North Down, with her much-publicised difficulties with the UUP-Conservative pact leading to her resignation from the party. Thus the Ulster Unionists approach Thursday, for the first time in their over-100 year history, without a single Westminster seat to defend.
The question is how much ground can the Ulster Unionists recover from the DUP. That party has considerable difficulties. Its former MEP, Jim Allister opposed Ian Paisley's and Peter Robinson's volte face about allowing Sinn Féin into government, left the party and set up his own Traditional Unionist Voice. It is running in a number of constituencies and will do well without gaining any seats. No matter, its tactic seems to be to build its base for the assembly elections of next year when there certainly will be victories. The question is whether or not Allister can take enough votes from the DUP to help the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists New Force (UCUNF) top the poll.
Nowhere will that contest be more carefully watched than in North Antrim, whose retiring MP is Ian Paisley Sr and who has been replaced by Ian Paisley Jr, and Belfast East where the new DUP leader Peter Robinson defends his seat against the UCUNF candidate Trevor Ringland, a former Ireland and British Lions rugby player.
Robinson has not been left unscathed by controversy. He has been tainted not only by his wife's financial and sexual activities, but also by his own dealings with developers. There is the question of a piece of key development land which he bought for £5. The moderate unionist vote could win this seat but for the fact that the deputy leader of the small Alliance party will poll well perhaps improving on her share of the vote last time out. It will probably be enough to ensure that Robinson holds his seat.
In North Antrim Paisley Sr received a plurality of the votes last time out and his son defends an 18,000 majority. He is up against the TUV leader Jim Allister. Allister will take a considerable number of votes off Paisley Jr, but not enough either to win the seat or allow the UCUNF challenger in.
In North Down, Hermon, standing as an independent candidate will certainly be returned with Alliance and DUP support and, interestingly, she has already pledged to take the Labour whip at Westminster. Next door in Iris Robinson's old seat of Strangford there is a struggle between a DUP candidate with a strong local track record and a former leading broadcaster for UCUNF, with the DUP candidate probably emerging victorious.
The only other Unionist seat of interest is South Antrim where the UUP leader, Sir Reg Empey, may well defeat the DUP's Rev Willie McCrea. All polls say that there is only a few hundred votes in it. This will be a key marginal for the battle within Unionism because if Empey is defeated then his position as leader of the Unionist party will become untenable. This is especially so if no UCUNF candidates emerge as winners on Friday.
Within nationalism it will probably be a case of status quo ante with the SDLP holding on to its three seats of Foyle, South Down and Belfast South. Sinn Féin are at risk only in Fermanagh and South Tyrone where a Unionist Unity candidate could snatch the seat from the Sinn Féin MP. Recognising the danger, Sinn Féin offered to withdraw their candidate from the Belfast South contest, where he had no chance of winning, and in return demanded that the SDLP do not contest Fermanagh. The SDLP leader, who should be returned in South Down, ruled this out as Sinn Féin boycott Westminster in any case. This has caused major antagonism between the two parties and with the wheels having come off Sinn Féin's political strategy in the republic in recent times, the loss of a high-profile Westminster MP would be a major blow. The conflict for seats in the assembly between the parties next year should be an interesting one.
Friday morning we should wake up to more of the same. The exceptions being that the UUP MP for North Down will have been returned as an independent, Sinn Féin may lose Fermanagh and South Tyrone to a Unionist Unity candidate and there is a possibility of a UCUNF gain from the DUP in South Antrim. In other words we will probably have got the representation we deserve.