North-west Africa is on the brink of war. The situation is the worst in almost 20 years. The EU has the opportunity to influence the development towards a peaceful direction.
Western Sahara is Africa's last colony, occupied by Morocco since the 1970s. The occupation has no basis in international law. The international court of justice has heard the case and rejected Morocco's claim to the country, while reaffirming the inalienable right of the people of Western Sahara to self-determination.
In the beginning, the Sahrawis resisted the occupation with arms – the right of occupied peoples – but in 1991 a ceasefire was signed with a promise by the international community that a referendum would be held where the Sahrawis would be able to decide if they wanted to be independent or integrated into the occupying country, Morocco. Since then, numerous attempts have been made to implement the referendum, but Morocco has sabotaged all of them.
About 160,000 Sahrawis live in refugee camps in south-western Algeria, in the middle of the Sahara desert. Access to food and water is scarce. Sahrawi people in the occupied territories and those displaced to Morocco are living in fear. Moroccan authorities threaten, imprison and torture those who assert Western Sahara's right to independence.
Almost 20 years after the international community's promise, Western Sahara is still occupied. Patience among Sahrawis is running out.
The Polisario Front, the Sahrawi liberation organisation, is recognised by the United Nations as the sole and legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people, and is working through diplomatic means for an independent Western Sahara. The Olof Palme International Centre has long provided support for the Polisario Front and the Sahrawi people, for example, training women in the refugee camps in civilian occupations.
It was once the case that the Sahrawis were happy to abide by the ceasefire; but that is no longer the case. After nearly 20 years of occupation, people have begun to tire of false promises and of waiting. There is more and more talk of resuming the armed struggle. Our estimation is that a majority of the people want the Polisario Front to reconsider taking up arms. It both hurts and worries us. In our roles, we have consistently advocated peaceful solutions and diplomatic methods.
It is with great sadness that we see that the Sahrawis no longer believe in the possibility of restoring their country through peaceful means. At the same time, we understand the dejection that the Sahrawis feel.
The EU has a unique opportunity to influence the situation. The EU was formed to safeguard peace by increasing the inter-governmental exchanges based on respect for democracy, human rights and international law. But now, the EU is on the verge of contributing to the war in north Africa.
This year will see negotiations on the renewal of the EU fisheries agreement with Morocco. The agreement provides significant revenue to Morocco and allows fishing in the waters of the occupied Western Sahara. It therefore contravenes international law, since the rich catches are not made accessible to the Sahrawi people.
That was why Sweden voted against the agreement in 2006. But since then, more actors have called for attention to the agreement. The European parliament's legal experts have established that the agreement is illegal and must be changed. Hans Corell, the former UN undersecretary-general for legal affairs, has held that the fishing agreement is contrary to international law.
If the EU renews the fisheries agreement with Morocco as it is, the consequences could be catastrophic. The Sahrawi people are already disappointed with the EU, but many still hope that it will stand on the side of international law and exclude the occupied areas from the fisheries agreement. If that happens, it may well help to give Sahrawis a signal that the world has not forgotten them, and to show Morocco that the EU does not accept the occupation of Western Sahara.
However, if the occupied territories remain included in the agreement, the consequence could be war. The war will be a source of extreme instability in the region.
Therefore it is of utmost importance that Catherine Ashton, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy and vice-president of the European commission, act immediately. She and the union should:
1. Exclude the occupied Sahrawi areas from the fisheries agreement.
2. Require that Morocco cooperate with the UN and the Polisario Front, and implement the agreed referendum on self-determination for the Sahrawi people.
3. Follow the example of South Africa and over 80 other countries: recognise and establish diplomatic relations with the Saharawi Republic.