Art Cullen: ‘The race is down to Sanders v Biden’
Joe Biden did much to consolidate the moderate wing of the Democratic presidential electorate with a blowout win Saturday in South Carolina. He exceeded expectations as African-American voters flocked to him. But Biden continues to face a daunting path forward if Bernie Sanders wins California as big as polls suggest on Super Tuesday, and if Michael Bloomberg does not go away.
Bloomberg should take a hint from Tom Steyer’s result: after spending $20m in South Carolina and camping there, Steyer couldn’t even muster 15% viability to capture delegates. Billionaires are not welcome.
Amy Klobuchar ran a good race but her moment passed. Pete Buttigieg clearly has not fared well with minority voters crucial to a winning effort. Elizabeth Warren is running out of options.
Biden and Sanders have demonstrated that they can build diverse coalitions critical to success in November. Yet, Sanders has to ask himself some hard questions about why he under-performs with African-American voters, and needs to reach out more to unify the party. Sanders remains the front-runner and the probable nominee if he dominates in California, turns out Latinos in Texas and runs even in the other Super Tuesday states. Bloomberg may assure that with hundreds of millions spent in vain.
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Art Cullen is editor of The Storm Lake Times in Northwest Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing. He is a Guardian US columnist and author of the book Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope in America’s Heartland
Lloyd Green: Joe Biden is back – but this triumph won’t last long
Joe Biden is back with a commanding win in South Carolina after defeats in three-straight contests. But now comes Super Tuesday.
According to polls, Bernie Sanders holds comfortable leads in delegate rich California and Texas, where early voting is underway. Practically speaking, the former vice president will have little time to enjoy his triumph.
As for Saturday’s losers, South Carolina flashed a red light at Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren. Each ran in the low single-digits with black voters. By contrast, Biden beat Sanders with this key demographic by three-to-one. Historically, the Democratic nominee is the candidate who has fared best among the Democrats’ most reliable voting bloc.
It was also a bad day for Mike Bloomberg who wasn’t on the ballot. Biden’s convincing win undercut the rationale for the ex-New York City mayor’s candidacy. Biden has proved to be more durable than estimated, and little more than a quarter of South Carolina’s black primary voters view Bloomberg favorably.
In all but 1988 and 2004, the winner of the South Carolina primary emerged as the Democratic standard-bearer. In South Carolina, Biden was outspent 40-one. From looks of things, it is now a two-person race: Bernie v Biden.
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Lloyd Green was opposition research counsel to George HW Bush’s 1988 campaign and served in the Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
Benjamin Dixon: ‘The Democrats remain deeply divided’
The Democratic party is at an impasse that can best be observed by Joe Biden’s overwhelming win in South Carolina. I had the chance to spend the weekend in Columbia, South Carolina. What I found more than anything else was fear of a progressive agenda. Just the mention of the name, “Bernie Sanders” turned several voters I spoke with from gentle, almost passive, observers of the election into fierce and staunch opponents to the progressive from Vermont.
While I wanted to dismiss my observations as merely being anecdotal, my gut told me otherwise. Before any vote was cast, I knew that South Carolina – on average – did not like Bernie Sanders. But as the results came in, and Joe Biden appears to have received his first primary victory in all of his previous attempts, it appears as though both the anecdotal evidence and my instincts were proven correct.
South Carolina’s primary voters skewed heavily towards older and more conservative/moderate voters. That group –voters over the age of 45 and those who are seeking a moderate nominee – have resoundingly rejected Senator Sanders’s vision for America. Which brings us to the great divide in the Democratic party: moderates versus progressives.
Moderates cannot win the general election without progressives. Progressives cannot win the general election without moderates. Progressives are increasingly declaring that they will not vote for a moderate. The feeling towards progressives was mutual in South Carolina.
We are at an impasse. Can the big tent of the Democratic party continue when progressives are demanding actual, material change while moderates are simultaneously shouting at the top of their lungs, “let’s keep things the same.” The moderates I spoke to in South Carolina had as much a visceral reaction to the name Bernie Sanders as progressives have towards the name Michael Bloomberg.
If this division holds, neither progressives nor moderates will be able to build the coalition necessary to defeat Donald Trump in the general election because neither side can win without the other.
The real question is, are our competing visions for America irreconcilable differences. For the sake of the nation, I hope they are not.
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Benjamin Dixon is the host of the Benjamin Dixon podcast
Malaika Jabali: ‘The black vote isn’t monolithic’
South Carolina’s Democratic primary is the first to feature a majority black electorate, so there may be some sweeping pronouncements about Joe Biden’s primary victory in South Carolina. Its position in the primary and caucus calendar has made it the barometer for the presidential preferences of the Democratic party’s black, southern “blue wall.” But the clearest message that should come from this campaign season thus far, including the South Carolina results, is that there is no clear message about some monolithic “black vote.”
When you parse out the policy preferences of primary voters in South Carolina, they are inconsistent with the candidate they most supported, according to exit polls. A majority of South Carolina voters said they prioritize Medicare for All, which Biden refuses to support. Over half believe the economy needs a complete overhaul— Biden finds his strength in promising more of the same of Obama’s presidency. Biden even won 43% of voters who consider themselves “very liberal,” the plurality of voters who care about climate change, and income inequality. This doesn’t fit the “moderate” paradigm typically ascribed to black voters.
Further, Senator Bernie Sanders—who is in second place with about 20% of the vote with about 80% precincts reported— won voters under 30, illustrating the clear generational gap between the first and second place finishers.
These results aren’t entirely comprehensible until you consider that Biden’s frequent contact and relationships with South Carolina’s black political establishment throughout his career as a senator and vice president matter. For instance, 47% of South Carolina voters stated that US Representative Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden mattered to them. Essentially, Biden’s had a decades-long headstart engaging black voters in South Carolina.
But relationships – whether with Obama or South Carolina’s black leadership community – can only go so far. In other states where Biden will not get the benefit of this engagement, black voters may want a candidate more aligned with their political preferences. The real test of his staying power is not in a state he was expected to win since last year, but this upcoming Super Tuesday when a wider array of black voters will participate in the primaries.
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Malaika Jabali is a a lawyer, activist and journalist
Cliff Albright: ‘How committed are black voters to Biden?’
Without a doubt, the South Carolina results are a major victory for former Vice President Biden. Although a potential Biden victory of around 20 points was viewed as possible, not many expected the near 30 point victory which ultimately played out.
But Biden may soon learn that the devil’s in the details. Although his campaign may wish to believe that his victory is based on deep support for Biden, it’s more likely that Biden voters can be more accurately described as “electability voters”. An NBC News exit poll showed that an estimated 53% of primary voters would rather see a nominee who can beat Trump, versus 43% of voters who prefer a candidate who agrees with them. These numbers are similar to the percentages of voters who voted for Biden versus those who voted for other candidates.
If Biden’s victory is based more on his apparent electability than on his unique appeal, then the entrance of Michael Bloomberg on Super Tuesday may keep Biden from getting the type of bounce he is hoping for.
Besides the impact of Bloomberg on the race, we will need to continue to watch for the answer to an important question: will black voters in Super Tuesday states follow the path that black South Carolina voters appear to have followed, which is voting based on electability rather than excitement about policy positions? Or will they act on the belief that by voting on our issues and interests, we can shape the electability narrative rather than allowing the electability narrative to shape us. We will soon find out.
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Cliff Albright is the Cofounder of the Black Voters Matter Fund