France’s presidential election is still two months away and the most likely winner, according to opinion polls, the incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, has yet to declare his candidacy. Yet one result already appears certain: the vote will be another, perhaps terminal, disaster for the once-dominant Socialist party and, more broadly, the French left.
Important lessons may be drawn from this impending failure by other European progressive, social democratic parties and also by Labour in Britain. The re-election victory in Portugal last week of António Costa’s Socialists, who improved on their 2019 performance, demonstrated it is still possible for the centre-left to win, govern and win again.
One basic lesson concerns the willingness to rally loyally round a single standard-bearer, eschewing the factionalism so typical of the left in Europe (and the US). In France, voters are confronted by no fewer than seven leftwing Élysée hopefuls, including the Socialist, Anne Hidalgo, the Greens leader, Yannick Jadot, the hard-leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the Communist, Fabien Roussel.
Fears of an approaching train wreck intensified after an attempt to agree a “unity candidate” backfired spectacularly. A former minister, Christiane Taubira, won an informal vote, which was boycotted by the main contenders, rendering it meaningless. Of the magnificent seven, only Mélenchon is in double figures in the polls (10%). Hidalgo, heir to the former Socialist president François Hollande, who only left office in 2017, is on a risible 3%.
Another key lesson for the left is the need to adapt to changing political formations. In Germany, the Social Democrats ended decades of centre-right rule last year by forming an unlikely coalition with the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats. In Norway, the Labour party regained power in September by allying with the agrarian Centre party.
In order to win, the left (loosely defined) must also adapt to changing electorates. It is far from clear, in many countries, that a homogenous working-class vote still exists. The end of the communist era, the impact on communities and jobs of deindustrialisation, globalisation and post-2008 austerity, and fears stoked by far-right populists about immigration and identity have altered voting habits.
France has its own equivalents of England’s red wall seats – decaying urban areas where well-paid manufacturing jobs have vanished and investment dried up. But instead of switching to a Tory-like party, voters there increasingly back Marine Le Pen or Éric Zemmour, the siren voices of far-right reaction and division. This is what can happen when the left fails in its responsibility to offer plausible, winning alternatives.
Spain provides perhaps the best European example of how socialism in the 21st century can thrive. Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers party took office in 2018, in coalition with the populist Podemos and other factions. From the start, Sánchez rejected austerity and prioritised fighting poverty and inequality.
It hasn’t all gone swimmingly, by any means. But Sánchez’s supporters say that by increasing public funding for healthcare and education, boosting the minimum wage by 29%, helping small businesses and insisting that all government policies take account of environmental and climate crisis goals, he has succeeded in reconnecting with disaffected voters – the old “working class” – and in creating a progressive majority for change.
It seems to be working. Recent polling by the newspaper El País suggests the Socialists would triumph afresh if an election were held today, albeit with some losses to the right and far-right. Spain offers no panaceas for the sickness of the left. But it does point to a way forward for those in Britain, France and elsewhere who wonder whether they will ever win again.