Thirty years after South Africans flocked to the country’s first free and fair elections, the country is at another pivot point. Polls suggest that in Wednesday’s general election, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to lose its majority for the first time, though its figures have improved somewhat in recent weeks. Despite some promising advances in the ANC’s first decade in power, the country’s political transformation with the end of apartheid was never adequately matched by economic and social change. GDP growth has averaged 0.8% annually since 2012.
A black middle class emerged, but income inequality is extraordinarily high. The top 0.1% hold 25% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% owe more than they own. Unemployment stands at more than 40% if those who have given up looking for jobs are included. The murder rate is one of the highest in the world. Education and the crumbling infrastructure are a source of national despair. Eskom, the state power company, has just said that it has “fixed” endemic blackouts. Others are sceptical. In 2022, more than four in five adults surveyed said the country was going in the wrong direction.
The president, Cyril Ramaphosa, injected fresh hope into the body politic when he took over in 2018, pledging “a new dawn … inspired by our collective memory of Nelson Mandela”. A veteran of the anti-apartheid struggle, he promised to set the country back on the right track after the “nine wasted years” of state capture – massive and entrenched corruption – and failure overseen by his predecessor, Jacob Zuma.
Those years showed the strength of South Africa’s institutions: its independent media, civil society and judiciary. These elections too will be free and fair. But Mr Ramaphosa has had to acknowledge how far there still is to go in tackling corruption and factionalism, and turning the country round. He has faced questions himself about large amounts of cash taken from his farm, though a corruption watchdog cleared him. The more widely shared and potent criticism is that he has put party before country, failing to adequately challenge entrenched interests for fear the ANC would not hold together. Sympathetic observers suggest he had little choice if he wanted to stay on to steer the nation in a better direction.
The political alternatives are uninspiring to many South Africans, but could end up in coalition government anyway. The Economic Freedom Fighters, led by the controversial and opportunistic Julius Malema, are leftwing populists who want to expropriate land without compensation and nationalise mines, banks and other firms despite warnings about the economic impact. Mr Zuma, though barred from standing, is a renewed headache for Mr Ramaphosa thanks to his new uMkhonto we Sizwe party. The liberal Democratic Alliance, thought unlikely to enter an ANC coalition, is widely seen as catering primarily to the interests of the white minority.
The result is that – while electors queued for hours to cast their ballot in 1994 – only 40% of young people are registered to vote. In a poll, most of those aged 18 to 24 rejected the idea that democracy is always the best form of government. Ultimately, no nation is served by the dominance of a single party in perpetuity. The problem is not so much the disappointments and failures of the ANC as the fact that rivals have yet to offer a convincing alternative – which might also make the party raise its game.