Guilty. The New York jury’s unanimous verdicts on 34 counts mean that Donald Trump is not only the first sitting or former US president to be prosecuted in a criminal trial, but the first to be convicted.
Trump was found to have falsified business records to hide $130,000 of hush money paid to cover up a sex scandal he feared might hinder his run in 2016. Before his entry into politics, it would have been taken for granted that such charges would kill a campaign. Yet Trump is running for the White House as a convicted criminal. If he is jailed when he is sentenced in July – which most experts think unlikely – it is assumed that he would continue. If anything, the prospect of such a sentence spurs him on.
It is grim testament to his character that in some ways the most startling aspect of testimony in the five‑week trial was about his fear of the electoral impact that the adult film star Stormy Daniels’ allegation of extramarital sex might have. It was a reminder of how far he has lowered the political bar. Eight years on, critics have been forced to acknowledge that no scandal or shame seems to weaken the attachment of his core voters or the craven bond of Republican politicians. Each fresh revelation has seemed to almost reinforce his aura of impregnability to political controversy.
This trial too was in some ways grist to his mill, raising funds and firing up supporters. Some said they were more likely to vote for him if he were convicted. He continues to play the martyr: “Our whole country is being rigged right now,” he lied to supporters. He says he will appeal against his “scam” conviction.
Yet no one doubts that his anger, and his glum post-verdict demeanour, were real. Polling suggested that some supporters would think twice if there were a conviction. The hearings have cost him time and focus ahead of a closely contested election. With the outcome hanging on turnout and a small number of waverers in a handful of battleground states this November, even marginal effects could prove significant. Joe Biden now has an opportunity – albeit one which must be used carefully, and which will not on its own erase shortcomings within the Democratic campaign.
The three criminal cases Trump still faces – over the alleged mishandling of classified documents and attempts to overturn the 2020 election – are graver by far, but are not expected to be heard before election day. While this may not have been the case that his opponents wanted, it has proved that he breaks the law for political advantage. Failing to pursue it for fear that he would exploit the charges would have meant tacitly caving in to his bullyboy tactics.
Having wreaked devastation upon US politics, Trump seeks to undermine the rule of law too. He has assailed the prosecutor, the judge, the jury and the legal system itself. He broke a gag order 10 times. The damage he has caused must not be underestimated or overlooked. But the judicial process has held.
While so many powerful Republican politicians have quailed and fallen into line, 12 ordinary men and women have held him accountable. Their verdict has confirmed once more that this man is unfit to run the country. Their peers should take heed when they issue their own verdict at the ballot box in November.