Oscars 2017: five things we've learned about this year's race from Toronto

La La Land is a major contender

Since it world-premiered as the opening night film of the Venice film festival, Damien Chazelle’s big hearted love letter to Los Angeles has continued to buzz as a major awards contender. Reviews were largely glowing out of the gate (in Venice, The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw declared it a “sun-drenched musical masterpiece”). Even Tom Hanks, an Academy member, is a fan: while attending the Telluride film festival, he acted as La La Land’s unofficial mascot, when he was supposed to be touting his performance in Clint Eastwood’s Sully.

La La Land cemented its status as the major breakout this festival season with Sunday’s win of Toronto’s People’s Choice award which, while decided by cinemagoers, has become a reliable indicator of Oscar glory. Previous winners have included American Beauty, Silver Linings Playbook, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, 12 Years a Slave, Precious and last year’s Room, which went on to score a surprise four nominations at the Oscars and a best actress win for Brie Larson.

The Academy has been known to love films about its own industry, and in that regard, La La Land fits the bill. Emma Stone plays a struggling actor, whose relationship with her jazz pianist boyfriend (Ryan Gosling) becomes strained when his career begins to overtake hers. Chazelle’s swooning execution makes it the most audacious ode to Hollywood since The Artist, which swept to success in 2012. It’s still early to gauge if La La Land will follow in that silent film’s footsteps. So far, the chances appear to be in its favour.

The best actress race is stacked

Out of La La Land’s lovesick pair, Stone has emerged as the MVP. She anchors the film as the feisty Mia, showcasing all of her best assets as an actor: she’s wry when the script calls for it, devastating in a final number, and altogether charming. It’s a winning performance – and the best of her already impressive career.

Stone beat Natalie Portman (who’s also drawing her best-ever reviews for her terrific portrayal of Jacqueline Kennedy in Pablo Larraín’s Jackie) for best actress honours at Venice. But as potential Oscar narratives go, the two are being pegged as this year’s major rivals.

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Portman hasn’t acted much since winning her Oscar for Black Swan in 2011. She proves that victory was no fluke with a galvanising turn as Kennedy immediately before and following John F Kennedy’s assassination, that’s sure to impress voters for its technical proficiency (Portman thoroughly nails Kennedy’s breathy and docile-sounding voice, without letting the affectations get the better of her), while also appealing to their emotions.

The two aren’t the only to impress this season. Rebecca Hall did a victory lap in Toronto months after debuting her dark character Christine in Sundance. Hall is fearless as Christine Chubbuck, the news anchor who achieved notoriety in the 70s for killing herself on live TV. The filmwill probably prove too grim to factor strongly into the discussion, but Hall deserves a major shot. The same goes for Rooney Mara in Una. The two-hander about a confrontation between a woman and the man who sexually abused her as a child didn’t set Toronto aflame. Her performance, however, is too charged to ignore.

Amy Adams meanwhile had a fabulous week, earning major plaudits for her varied work in Denis Villeneuve’s brainy sci-fi Arrival and Tom Ford’s sleek thriller Nocturnal Animals. She’s sure to have a busy few months ahead.

The Birth of a Nation is still on shaky ground

Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation entered Toronto so clouded in controversy it probably never stood a chance of reclaiming the glory of its Sundance debut, where it sold to Fox Searchlight for a record sum and ignited Oscar buzz as the film that would combat recent #OscarsSoWhite controversy at next year’s ceremony.

For a moment, however, the Nat Turner biopic seemed poised to come close. Similar to Sundance, The Birth of a Nation was greeted by a lengthy standing ovation in Toronto, even amid the rape allegations that have threatened to derail the film’s chances of entering the awards race.

Everything appeared to be going so smoothly – that was until Parker took part in a press conference following its rapturous screening, where he uncomfortably chose to evade any questions regarding the 17-year-old case. Ultimately for Parker, there’s no escaping his past.

Moonlight is soaring

With The Birth of a Nation floundering, Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight stands to become the needed lighting rod to put an end to #OscarsSoWhite. It’s a tougher overall sell: it tells a micro story, focusing on a black gay man at three stages over his life. But ecstatic reviews prove it’s a hit with discerning audiences. There’s no denying its power.

Harvey Weinstein is back in the mix

The producer, once considered the king of awards season, has in recent years been flailing a bit. Last year, he failed to earn Todd Haynes’s Carol a best picture nomination. In fact, no films from his company made the cut in a major blow for Weinstein, who hasn’t seen a film from his company net the industry’s biggest honour since The Artist.

By all accounts, Garth Davis’s directorial debut Lion will bring Weinstein back into the fold. The Academy gravitates towards inspirational and fact-based stories, and Lion has a great one: Dev Patel plays a young man adopted as a child who uses Google Maps to track down the family he left in India. The film generated a prolonged ovation at its premiere, as well as enthusiastic reviews from critics usually immune to such tales. It proved its hold by coming in as the runner-up for the People’s Choice award. If Weinstein plays his cards right, he’ll be back on terra firma in no time.