There is tension in the Munich air. True to form, Pep Guardiola is stalling on signing a new contract, thus calling his future at the club into question. With a deal reportedly lined up for him to join Manchester City, this may be Guardiola’s last chance to deliver the Champions League to Bayern Munich. But whether he wins it or not, should he swap the Allianz for the Etihad?
On one hand, Manchester City would offer Guardiola an opportunity to shape the club from top to bottom. Having been chased for so long, and as the most sought-after coach in the game, Guardiola could enjoy bucket loads of goodwill from fans and the board, giving him the time to work with the team unshackled by a prerequisite number of trophy wins in so many years. By appointing Guardiola you are signing up to a style of football, not just a crammed trophy cabinet.
He might be tempted by the idea of fashioning their footballing environment. With the club’s new City Football Academy, a man with the right plan and farsighted view could put something special in place and leave indelible marks on the club. Of course, there is also his relationship with City executives Ferran Soriano and Txiki Begiristain, who seem to have been employed with the sole purpose of bringing Guardiola to the club.
What’s more, in England, Guardiola would have a different domestic football landscape to navigate. Bayern Munich have little sustained competition in the Bundesliga and, although Borussia Dortmund are on their way back and Wolfsburg are trying to build something, Bayern look set to dominate for the foreseeable future. The Premier League is a different story. Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United appear to be in a position to challenge for years to come, and Liverpool fans will be hoping Jürgen Klopp can bring some swagger back to Anfield. A move to the Etihad would appeal to anybody looking for a challenge. And, of course, the financial rewards would also be significant.
But what if Guardiola chose to stick, and play the hand he is holding. Bayern Munich are one of the best teams in Europe and Guardiola could make this side into one of the game’s great teams. There may even come a time when his Munich team are more synonymous with his legacy than those he created at Barcelona.
History, however, may suggest that Guardiola is more inclined to twist than stick. Throughout his era-defining spell at the Camp Nou, Guardiola famously worked under a rolling one-year contract. Alongside this, his obsessive nature and meticulous attention to detail appeared to take their toll on him physically and even led some to voice concerns over his health. Despite everything being in place at Barcelona for him to create a dynasty, he stayed just four seasons and took a year off before being wooed back into action by Bayern Munich. They were never going to stand for such a laissez-faire approach to employment and immediately slapped a three-year contract on the table.
In today’s game, three years is long-term. But by adding a few more pages to his contract, Guardiola and Bayern Munich could achieve so much more. If he was sold on the Manchester City project, he would be there already. And despite the presence of Soriano and Begiristain, something doesn’t sit right about Guardiola and City. In Munich he still has unfinished business, namely the Champions League. For all his domestic dominance and tactical artistry, he has failed to emulate the treble-winning side he inherited from Jupp Heynckes. If he leaves Germany without winning the trophy, he will have failed. Most top-level trainers would have won at least a couple of Bundesliga titles in three years with this team.
Guardiola was brought to Bavaria to win the Champions League and take the club to the next level. He has developed their style of play but, without a European title, can it really be called success? If Guardiola is as self-critical as his manner suggests, he will dissatisfied with a season of becoming champions in March, winning the German Cup, but falling short on the European front.
Guardiola is only 44. Why not invest another three, four, or even five years in the Bayern project and see what can be done? If he harbours a desire to manage in England, then it will wait for him. It would take something dramatic for his stock to fall so low that he wouldn’t be a candidate for any top job in the Premier League. A Bayern exit a few years down the line might easily coincide with Arsène Wenger leaving north London. And if not, how long would he realistically have to wait for a top four job to come up?
Where else is he going to find a squad like the one he has now? Guardiola has a lot of young, exquisite footballers who are able to operate in multiple areas of the pitch. As well inheriting an excellent team and, even more importantly, sitting at the end of a fruitful conveyor belt of homegrown talent, Guardiola and the club have generally made studied and decisive moves in the transfer market, whether cherry-picking from their domestic rivals or identifying elite players on the continent and bringing them to the Bundesliga. What the coach has at his disposal, coming into his third winter at the club is a special blend of talent.
Players such as Philipp Lahm, Xabi Alonso, David Alaba, Thiago Alcântara, Juan Bernat, Javi Martinez and Mario Götze are moved around the pitch almost at will. In the absence of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribéry, Kingsley Coman and, in particular, Douglas Costa have hit the ground running in the wide positions, while Arturo Vidal and young talent Joshua Kimmich have climbed on to Guardiola’s tactical merry-go-round without stumbling. And what better way to bookend the team than with the undoubted class of Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Müller at one end, and Jérôme Boateng and Manuel Neuer at the other.
Bayern cut down their opposition on a frequent basis and Guardiola’s fingerprints are all over the murder weapon. When watching this current Bayern side it is easy to be drawn into ignoring the opposition and enjoying and even attempting to figure out the way the Bayern team approach the game, swirling around the pitch in formations that resemble mind-maps at brainstorming meetings. With a little more time, they could comfortably be called the best team in Europe, and could become serial winners of the Champions League.
Of course, it is completely conceivable that neither Guardiola nor Manchester City is interested in the move. Manuel Pellegrini may win another league title, and maybe more, and extend his stay in Manchester after this season. But, however successful the Chilean has been or will prove to be, the shadow of Guardiola has been looming over Manchester for a while.
Fans of Bayern Munich, and maybe every Premier League club aside from City, may hope that Guardiola stays in the Bundesliga. As much as it would be intriguing to see him work in the England – and particularly if at the same time as an increasingly spiky José Mourinho – the Premier League isn’t going anywhere. If Guardiola stays, he will have to overlook the lack of immediate challenges domestically and see that his Bayern Munich side transcend the Bundesliga and become a true European giant of this generation, an iconic side. Having seen what he did with Barcelona in four seasons, it would be compelling to see what he could create given a few more years in Munich.
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