The decision by the Lib Dems to form a coalition government with the Conservatives in 2010 torpedoed the party’s electoral support for years. Yet senior figures from both parties have now confirmed that they seriously considered the option of backing an audacious second coalition deal and putting it to voters at the 2015 election.
Lib Dem and Tory leaders discussed the idea of turning the 2015 vote into the next “coupon election” – a reference to the 1918 general election when a Liberal coalition headed by prime minister David Lloyd George endorsed pro-government Liberal and Tory MPs.
George Osborne, the then chancellor and a driving force behind Tory political strategy during the coalition years, was most interested in what would have been another controversial political pact. He still wonders if such a deal, which may also have prevented the EU referendum from taking place, could have secured electoral success.
Details of the plan are discussed by senior figures from the coalition government in Right to Rule, a new book covering 13 chaotic years of Conservative-led government by the political journalist Ben Riley-Smith. It states that both parties turned to the idea amid faltering political fortunes. Lib Dem support halved in nine months after forming the coalition government, while the Tories were deeply unpopular by the midterm of that administration.
All four figures from “the quad” of ministers that oversaw the coalition government – Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Cameron and Osborne – considered the idea. “Osborne, a keen reader of history, became fascinated by the idea,” the book states. “If both coalition parties were heading for defeat, why not team up? Tory MPs seeking election would be given a free run in their constituencies with the Lib Dems not entering a candidate, and vice versa. ‘Vote for the coalition in your area’ would be the message.”
Alexander said there were some “very specific conversations” about the idea. “Purely from an electoral, arithmetical point of view, it could be a very attractive proposition,” he said. “George and I discussed it a couple of times, and we could both see some advantages to both parties and also to the programme that we were pushing through on the economy.”
Interest in the concept reached a peak at a private dinner held by the quad in Downing Street, where it was discussed by both Cameron and Clegg. “The appeal was quite clear: this is a very big turnaround and recovery job for the country and it’s going to take at least one parliament and maybe more,” Cameron said. “This government seemed to be working. We were fulfilling a lot of their manifesto while fulfilling a lot of our manifesto. It seemed like this was a perfectly sensible conversation to have.”
However, the idea quickly ran into political problems on both sides. The Tories concluded that such a deal would have effectively ended their hopes of securing an overall majority – which they went on to claim in a campaign in which they turned their fire on the Lib Dems, winning many of their seats.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems were soon dealing with internal anger about forming the coalition government in the first place, with members and some of their own MPs becoming increasingly unhappy with having to work with the Tories and take the blame for policies they did not support.
However, Osborne reveals that he still believes the concept could have been electorally successful. “Within around a year of the 2015 election, Clegg had lost his job, Cameron had lost his job, and I’d lost my job,” Osborne said. “Was there another way through? Potentially, I think being the re-elected coalition with the simple message ‘the job’s not finished’ would have worked. I think we would have held the Tory party together.”
A new coalition government might also have avoided the need for the EU referendum – a Tory manifesto pledge that Cameron had to honour when his party unexpectedly secured a majority at the 2015 election.