There can be no question about the best rugby story of 2019 so far. For Scotland to have the chance of both its professional teams reaching Europe’s last eight going into the final round of Champions Cup pool matches is as unprecedented as it is great news for a tournament which thrives on diversity. Sure, the leading Irish, French and English candidates are still in the mix but a double-whammy of Edinburgh and Glasgow really would be a collector’s item.
It is not always an easy life as a pro rugby player in Scotland. There are bigger bucks available elsewhere and, until this season, their major teams have reached the European quarter-finals just twice and once respectively in 22 years of trying. When Gregor Townsend names his Six Nations squad this week it will be from a position of collective psychological strength unparalleled since Jim Telfer’s heyday.
Which, of course, begs a familiar question: does European form translate to the international stage? This time last year, when England were – as now – mostly underperforming in Europe, Eddie Jones was unimpressed by a headline in the Guardian – “Premiership’s faltering form in Europe could spell trouble for England” – suggesting it might impact on their 2018 Six Nations prospects. “If they’re not successful at club level, it doesn’t mean you can’t be successful at international level,” said Jones. Fair enough, but England’s fifth-placed finish in the Six Nations did not exactly explode the notion of a legitimate link between European form in January and Test form immediately afterwards.
This does not automatically mean that Scotland are about to win a grand slam, even if three of their first four fixtures are being played at Murrayfield this year. When expectations have been ramped up on Scottish sides in the recent past, they have not always responded positively. And yet. If a Lions party were touring this summer, Hamish Watson, Darcy Graham, Blair Kinghorn, Stuart McInally, WP Nel, Jonny Gray, Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell would all be legitimate contenders. Sam Skinner was excellent again for Exeter on Sunday. Mix in a dash of Edinburgh’s Richard Cockerill-engineered resilience and why would Scotland not be heading into the next couple of months feeling genuinely optimistic?
Was it totally coincidental, too, that Ireland won a grand slam last season when their provinces were also riding high? This time around both Munster and Ulster have stepped up a gear from last season and Leinster, the defending European champions, are nicely placed to grab their customary home quarter-final draw. No one who saw Joey Carbery’s masterclass at Kingsholm on Friday night will need telling that Joe Schmidt has rare strength-in-depth at his disposal.
Which nicely sets the scene for Jones’s Six Nations squad announcement on Thursday. Gone are the days of England coaches naming squads in the breezy knowledge they were pretty much certain to finish in the top half of the table. And where does Jones turn for upbeat, in-form players on a roll with their clubs? Aside from Saracens and Exeter none of the Premiership’s other five European contenders are remotely in the hunt with one round still to play.
What happens, furthermore, if the Chiefs go to Munster this weekend and get munched by the home back row just as Gloucester were last Friday night? It would further strengthen the suspicion that players accustomed to the Premiership, relentless and punishing though it may be, are being outflanked by some of the more dynamic breakdown operators who ply their domestic trade elsewhere. Which is effectively what Jones is acknowledging every time he pointedly omits yet another prominent Premiership back-rower from his plans.
With the unfortunate Sam Underhill out injured that heaps an awful lot of pressure on Sale’s Tom Curry. It is asking a lot to expect him to go to Dublin and single-handedly outplay Dan Leavy, Peter O’Mahony (if fit), Seán O’Brien (ditto), CJ Stander, Josh van der Flier, Rhys Ruddock and the rest of Schmidt’s swarming green army. With Billy Vunipola not having played a lot of rugby recently, it makes Jones’s selection at No 6 all the more crucial. Does he redeploy Courtney Lawes or Maro Itoje or, with Chris Robshaw yet to make a competitive return following knee surgery, rely on the trusty Mark Wilson or Brad Shields?
The answer is probably Wilson (if fit) unless Jones pulls an energiser bunny out of the hat and picks the uncapped Harlequin Alex Dombrandt to provide a bit of pace, bosh and unpredictability. Then again, is the Aviva Stadium on the opening weekend of the Six Nations the ideal place for such a bold selectorial flourish? It scarcely helps that England have barely a week’s preparation together in Portugal before flying to Dublin, with forecasts for icy weather around the start of February already circulating. If Dombrandt makes Thursday’s squad, it will surely be with more distant assignments in mind.
Jones, though, no longer has the luxury of time to experiment. The squad he names on Thursday, give or take the injured Anthony Watson, will not be far removed from the one travelling to Japan this autumn. If Dan Robson, Dan Cole, Chris Ashton, Joe Cokanasiga, Joe Marchant, Danny Cipriani, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Ellis Genge do not make it now, their World Cup prospects really will be slim. Unless, of course, England’s Euro-star opponents prove so irresistible it proves a good Six Nations to miss.
Johnny be good
At the annual Rugby Union Writers’ Dinner in London on Monday night the prestigious Pat Marshall Trophy for personality of the year was presented to Ireland’s Johnny Sexton. The 33-year-old fly-half, already the 2018 world player of the year, made several hundred new friends by flying over from Dublin to receive his award, the latest example of his continuing desire to go the extra mile. Those expecting the outstanding Sexton to step meekly aside and settle for a role as Joey Carbery’s understudy at the World Cup do not know him very well; the competition, if anything, will make him more driven than ever.
One to watch
So far this seasons’s Anglo-Irish Champions Cup results read as follows: Leinster 52-3 Wasps, Bath 10-17 Leinster, Leinster 42-15 Bath, Exeter 10-10 Munster, Munster 36-22 Gloucester, Ulster 24-10 Leicester. None of England’s side managed to win in Ireland in last season’s tournament either. No pressure, then on Exeter as they head for Thomond Park this weekend with Pool Two qualification on the line. England, due to visit Dublin a fortnight later, will be watching closely.