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The state of independence

This article is more than 19 years old
The sticky question of Quebec sovereignty means few are contesting the leadership of the separatist Parti Québécois, writes Anne McIlroy

Quebec separatists are looking for a new leader, someone who will be able to build on the growing support for independence in the predominantly French-speaking province.

Recent polls show that support for sovereignty is higher than it has been in a decade, with 55 percent in favour. The surge appears to be driven by dislike for Liberal premier and strong federalist, Jean Charest, and by a scandal over federal government attempts to win the affection of voters in the province after they narrowly voted against secession in the 1995 referendum.

So it came as a shock last month when Bernard Landry, leader of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), resigned after getting only 76.2% support in a leadership review. His decision to quit is a sign of how difficult it is to govern a political party in which hardliners on independence battle with pragmatists who favour offering voters a new partnership with Canada, short of full independence.

It has never been clear what exactly this new partnership would entail, or how or even if it would be achieved. But the idea, however vague, is more palatable to voters in Quebec than outright independence. To many people in English-speaking Canada, the whole idea seems outrageous. If Quebecers vote to break up the country, the rest of Canada may not be amenable to a new arrangement that involves a shared military or monetary policy for example. On the other hand, some sort of deal would eventually have to be struck on the federal government's assets in Quebec.

Perhaps because the job of PQ leader is so difficult, a number of high-profile candidates decided not to seek the party's top job. Although new candidates could come forward this summer, the race appears for now to be largely between Pauline Marois, a former finance minister and deputy premier, and Andre Boisclair, a much younger, and some say more charismatic politician.

A recent poll shows that Mr Boisclair, 39, may be more appealing to Quebec voters. A survey published in the Montreal newspaper La Presse found that 35 percent of those questioned said he was more likely to lead the party to victory in the next election. He is young, but not inexperienced. He was first elected for the PQ at the age of 23 and held several cabinet posts when the party was in power. He recently studied at Harvard University in the United States, and is also openly gay.

Ms Marois, 56, is one of the most powerful women in a party in which women hold many of the top posts. She is formidable, but has also made many enemies within the PQ, and doesn't appear to have the trust of those who want to push hardest for outright independence.

The vote will be held in mid-November. The winner will have to wait at least two years before calling another referendum on sovereignty, the third in the province's history. The PQ is now in opposition in Quebec, and the governing Liberals have until 2007 or 2008 to call an election. Only if the PQ wins, can it call another vote on sovereignty.

When the first referendum was held in 1980, the sovereigntist forces were soundly beaten. The second vote, in 1995, was almost too close to call, but in the end the shaken federalists prevailed and Canada remained whole.

The third vote, if it is held, promises to be different. The federal government has passed the Clarity Act, which stipulates that the question put to Quebecers must be clear. In the past two votes, ambiguous questions about "sovereignty association" and new partnerships with Canada have left many Quebec voters muddled on what exactly they were voting for. During the 1995 campaign, polls showed many voters believed that even if Quebec declared independence, they would still be able to carry Canadian passports and send members of parliament to Ottawa.

The PQ has also taken its own steps towards a clearer future. It recently passed a resolution that means the next referendum question will be less ambiguous - a vote for sovereignty, not for "sovereignty association". The problem is, public support for outright independence is much lower than for some kind of ambiguous new sovereignty partnership with the rest of Canada. Whoever wins the PQ leadership may have a much tougher option to sell voters than his or her predecessors.

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