Stephen Harper and his Conservative party have a solid lead in the Canadian federal election campaign, and, unless there is a dramatic shift in public opinion between now and voting day, January 23, he will become Canada's next prime minister.
The prime minister, Paul Martin, and his Liberals are trailing by about 10 percentage points in the polls. They held a small but steady lead for the first half of the winter campaign. But, during the Christmas break, the Royal Canadian mounted police announced a criminal investigation into whether the government had leaked details of an important financial announcement.
It was a turning point and reminded voters how angry they had been about another Liberal scandal that saw millions in government funds intended to boost the federal presence in the French-speaking province in Quebec go to advertising firms who did very little for their lucrative contracts. They funneled some of the money back to the Liberal party.
The talk of corruption also came as voters were assessing the first half of the campaign. Mr Harper made a detailed policy announcement every day, on daycare, increased military spending, tax cuts for families. The Liberals and Mr Martin did little more than react to the Conservative proposals. Their strategy was to let the then unpopular Mr Harper - who could come across as angry and discontented - inflict damage on himself.
But they underestimated him. The 46-year-old performed superbly, spelling out his plans for Canadians who want a change in government after 12 years of Liberal rule, but are suspicious about what he would do in power.
But a Conservative victory will not signal a dramatic shift to the right for the country, at least according to Mr Harper's campaign announcements. The Conservatives are a merger of two parties, the more populist and socially conservative Canadian Alliance and the more mainstream Progressive Conservatives, who were all but destroyed in the 1993 election after the deeply unpopular Brian Mulroney stepped down as prime minister.
Having a fractured opposition guaranteed former prime minister Jean Chretien his three majority governments. But when Mr Martin, his long-time rival and successor, finally took over as prime minister, he faced the united right in his first election, in June 2004.
He clung to power, but without a majority of seats in the Commons, and was defeated in a motion of no confidence late last year. He was forced to call a winter election, the first one in a quarter of century.
The Conservatives surged during the 2004 campaign as well, but the Liberals were able to frighten Canadians about what the rightwingers would do in power. That scare tactic doesn't appear to be working this time.
The Liberal advertisements link Mr Harper to rightwing groups in the United States, and say he will cosy up to the US president, George W Bush, who is despised by many Canadians. This time around, the Liberal attack ads have prompted parodies, including a fake internet campaign that says Mr Harper kills kittens. (According to a front-page profile in the Globe and Mail on Saturday, he was so distraught when his own cat was struck by a car and killed that his staff sent him a condolence card.)
The media has softened on Mr Harper, who says he has evolved. The Globe and Mail, a respected national newspaper, endorsed Mr Harper at the weekend.
The paper noted that he has moved to the middle of the political spectrum and that policies he has spelled out on health care, other social programmes and tax cuts are reasonable. The Conservative leader has managed to defuse concerns that he has a socially conservative hidden agenda. He insists the Conservatives will not reopen the abortion debate, for example.
The Liberals are frantically campaigning, and are hoping Mr Harper and the Conservatives have peaked too soon. If Canadians fear the Conservatives might win a majority rather then a minority, they may change their minds about how they will vote. But, after almost 13 years of Liberal rule, Canadians appear ready to give Mr Harper the chance he has been waiting for.