When Tsipras meets Putin: an opportunity for fruit diplomacy?

The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, will meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow today while the west is left guessing as to whether the pair will hammer out an economic deal.

Financial aid from the Kremlin would give Athens breathing space in its debt repayments, but analysts say that the countries may be more interested in grandstanding than a dramatic diplomatic realignment.

“Moscow could give Greece money … but it won’t solve either Moscow’s or Athens’ problems,” said Vasily Koltashov, head of the Institute of Globalisation and Social Movements’ economic research centre.

History does not favour a Greco-Russian deal: the last time representatives from a Mediterranean country visited Moscow under pressure from European creditors they went home empty-handed.

Back in 2013 Cyprus tried to secure Russian financial aid as the island’s capital Nicosia watched its banking system teeter on the verge of collapse.

This time around Russia’s current economic problems make it unlikely the government will commit large sums. Inflation has reached levels not seen since the early 2000s, and experts predict a 2015 economic contraction of up to 5% after a collapse in the value of the rouble in December.

Strawberries and peaches

But while expectations of a lasting solution for either side may be low, there is one area in which an easy victory is possible: Putin may agree to a partial lifting of Moscow’s food embargo on European imports – allowing this year’s Greek fruit harvest to find buyers in Russia.

Moscow could grant Greece privileged import access, thereby generating revenue for struggling companies back home and allowing Tsipras to present a concrete result to his voters.

“This would be a colossal present for Greece,” said Koltashov.

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Greece’s economy has suffered from the food embargo imposed by Moscow in August, with farmers describing harvests left to rot. The export relationship is particularly close in terms of fruit: Greece accounts for 40% of Russia’s total strawberry imports and 25% of peaches.

A spokesperson for Russia’s food safety watchdog, Rosselkhoznadzor, said that the agency was preparing to begin the necessary inspections in Greece on 20 April.

Greek assets

Tsipras’ visit is designed to please a domestic audience and bolster his standing in the EU, according to Thanos Dokos, director of the Athens-based Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.

“But there are also more material expectations in the sectors of trade, investment, energy and defence cooperation,” he added.

Russian companies have expressed interest in several key Greek assets in recent years, and Tsipras has said that energy and tourism are areas with the greatest economic potential.

State-owned gas giant Gazprom was one of the leading bidders for Greek natural gas infrastructure assets in 2013 in a privatisation deal that was eventually shelved.

Last year, state monopoly Russian Railways announced it was looking to buy a majority stake in the Greek port of Thessaloniki.

Any major new Russian investment in Greece would raise concern in Brussels. The EU and US have previously expressed concern over Russian companies being given control of key Greek infrastructure.

Greco-Russian ties

The relationship between Moscow and Athens has traditionally been close, partly because of their shared Orthodox faith. Greece has sided with Moscow in several international disputes: Athens doesn’t, for example, recognise independent Kosovo, whose US-backed status Russia condemns.

There are approximately 190,000 ethnic Greeks and Pontic Greeks in Russia concentrated along the country’s Black Sea coast and in the North Caucasus Stavropol region.

Russian investment in Greece has racked up in recent years, rising from $33 million in 2007 to $98 million in 2013, according to the latest available Central Bank data.

Experts, however, point out that Greco-Russian relations have often promised more than they deliver and that Athens is restricted by its affiliations to both the EU and Nato.

“The probability of Greece repositioning itself closer to Russia is practically zero for as long as Greece remains a full member of European institutions,” said the Hellenic Foundation’s Dokos.