So much for ‘Victory Day’ – Putin looked weak & his depleted army could soon tire of being cannon fodder and take him on
NOTHING is going to plan for Vladimir Putin – not even his Victory Day parade.
Having failed in his doomed attempt to score a rapid submission of neighbouring Ukraine, the Russian dictator needed a show of military might in Moscow’s Red Square yesterday.
The march through the capital every May 9 is a way to warn the world not to mess with the Russian Bear and to reassure watching citizens.
But while those 11,000 troops stepping in unison and convoys of ballistic missile launchers looked impressive, many key elements were missing.
Firstly, the sun didn’t shine.
It might sound unreasonable to blame Putin for the weather, yet the Kremlin does try to control the elements on Victory Day.
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Just like the Chinese seeded the clouds to make it rain before the opening ceremony at the Beijing Olympics, so the Russians like to make them burst ahead of May 9.
Despite that, bad weather seems to have prevented what should have been a fear- inducing flypast taking place.
There were going to be MiG-29 fighter jets in a Z formation, nuclear-capable bombers and Putin’s massive nuclear command plane, the IL-80.
Also notable by his absence was the Russian chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov.
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It was Gerasimov’s troops who were marching past the Lenin Mausoleum, so he should have been there.
Last week it was rumoured that the brutal Gerasimov had been wounded in Izyum, a Ukrainian city under Russian occupation, when he got too close to the front.
Several other officers were killed in the attack, with him supposedly only suffering a minor leg injury.
Embarrassingly, only two of the three T-14 Armata tanks made it on to Red Square on Monday.
Famously, when the hi-tech tank first made an appearance during the Victory Day parade in 2015 it broke down.
It looks like this supposedly world-beating weapon of war failed again.
This perfectly encapsulates Putin’s problem — his military machine is stalling badly.
And that is the reason why his speech was short on triumphalism or a proclamation of victory.
He must have been hoping to have been able to declare success in taking the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol.
The last of the civilians were allowed to leave the encircled complex last week, which indicated that was a prelude to an all out final assault on the remaining Ukrainian troops holding out.
STALLING BADLY
Somehow, the indomitable locals fight on against the odds.
So Monday’s “victory” parade was a low-key address to the nation, with no declaration of all-out war against Ukraine or a mass mobilisation of forces.
That is simply delaying the inevitable because the Russian military will need to replenish their troops if they are going to keep this war going.
If the Kremlin calls up another 130,000 conscripts it will take six months to have them ready for combat.
What was in the speech was an admission that the “special military operation” was proving to be difficult by talking about losses of life on the battlefield.
He also called the Donbas a “war zone”, which seems like a concession to the truth.
In Russia, describing the invasion of Ukraine as a war had been punishable by imprisonment.
On Sunday, Putin softened up the public for future action, by talking about liberating “our country” from “Nazi-filth”.
He is casting the whole invasion as a defence of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region from attack.
This is a way of limiting the scope of the current operation.
The hesitation about declaring all-out war against Ukraine may reflect the fact that the Kremlin finally realises it is getting its own way.
It is possible the generals are reining in Putin or that their leader now knows he doesn’t have the resources to push harder and faster.
BLIND ALLEY
Instead Putin is framing the special military operation as a defence against Western aggression.
He talked about defending our “own soil” — which means he considers Ukraine to be Russian territory.
Putin also described his invasion as a means to “pre-emptively” repulse “an aggression”, which can be legal under international law.
By using the phrase “pre-emptive” he is probably trying to put forward his excuse for bombing Ukraine.
In reality there was no chance of Ukraine attacking Russia.
Just like the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, the current president is blaming everyone but himself for his blunders.
If it is not President Zelensky or the West it is Putin’s own security services and military.
How long his generals and the siloviki, the men responsible for the nation’s security structures, put up with their failing leader is unclear.
Every day that passes without significant ground being captured imperils Putin.
His National Guardsmen are not happy about being used as cannon fodder and nationalist strongman Igor Girkin has been an open critic of Putin’s war record.
The oligarchs, whose business interests are being destroyed by sanctions, may also turn against Putin.
Only a change of military fortune can save him politically and there is little chance of that.
He is in such a blind alley and burned so many bridges that he has no way back.
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The longer this goes on the more Russia is going to suffer, which means he is finished.
But it could be some time before the dagger plunges into his back.
