NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds: Public Bettors Eye New Quarterbacks

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

NFL preseason Week 1 odds have helped reveal an unsurprising theme: Bettors are intrigued by new quarterbacks, whether rookies or those who changed teams since last season.

Also not surprising in odds for NFL preseason Week 1: Bettors are intrigued by the Baltimore Ravens. For several years now, the Ravens have been a SU and ATS machine in exhibition play.

Here’s everything you need to know about NFL preseason Week 1 odds for a few notable matchups: opening lines, spreads and betting trends, as multiple oddsmakers provide insights. Check back regularly for updates and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds

In-Progress Games for NFL Preseason Week 1

Completed Games for NFL Preseason Week 1

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings Odds

• Opening point spread: Vikings -1.5
• Opening moneyline: Vikings -125/Raiders +105
• Opening total: Over/Under 36 points scored
• Time: 4 p.m. ET Saturday (NFL Network)

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This line has been all over the place this week, demonstrating the volatility of NFL preseason Week 1 odds. And it's all about who's starting/how long they're playing, particularly at quarterback.

Sam Darnold will start for the Vikings, but rookie J.J. McCarthy is expected to see significant time. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a QB battle between veteran Gardner Minshew and second-year quarterback Aidan O'Connell, who will both get time today with other starters, it appears.

The SuperBook opened at Vikings -1.5 on Aug. 1, and over the next few days, the line sprinted toward the Raiders. Las Vegas got to 5.5 by Monday afternoon, then fell back to -3.5 Tuesday afternoon.

The Raiders went to -4 for a few hours Thursday, then dipped to -3. This morning, Las Vegas went to -3.5 again. In just the past 20 minutes or so, the Raiders got back to -4, but there was immediate pushback with Vikings play, and it's now at Raiders -3, 90 minutes before kickoff.

"Every wiseguy is on the Raiders. It sounds like the starters could play up to the whole first half," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. "We are getting some takeback on Minnesota now. In preseason, you've gotta recalibrate what constitutes a major move. A full point in preseason is like nothing.

"These games move 4-6 points from the opener all the time."

After opening at 36, the total made a steady climb at The SuperBook. On Monday, it went to 38/38.5/39, then on Wednesday receded to 38.5. Thursday brought moves to 39/39.5, and this morning, the total reached 40, where it sits now.

"It's one-way traffic on the Over," Michaelson said.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This matchup is among the most volatile in NFL preseason Week 1 odds. TwinSpires Sportsbook opened at Vikings -1.5 and moved all the way to Raiders -5.5 earlier this week.

The line has since receded a bit to Raiders -3.5. As noted in the previous update (see below), both teams have intriguing QB situations contributing to the betting interest.

Las Vegas is landing 70% of early spread bets/80% of early spread money at TwinSpires.

"The Raiders are a popular side here, despite the uncertainly on who will be playing for both sides," Lucas said. "The Raiders are the biggest preseason liability for us this week."

The total has seen notable movement, as well, stretching from 36.5 to 39. The Over is getting 55% of bets/63% of money.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy's Minnesota debut should come in this contest. Sam Darnold might not play at all for the Vikings.

But Las Vegas seems more eager to get its QB competition started, leading to a big move today in NFL preseason Week 1 odds. The Vikings opened -1.5 at The SuperBook, but the number is now all the way to Raiders -5.5. The last 3 points of that move came today, from Raiders -2.5 to -4.5/-5/-5.5.

"This is another example of how information moves the lines so dramatically in preseason games," Michaelson said. "It came out this morning that the Raiders will be giving Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew a chance to compete in this game, which means more starters offensively. That's how you get a 6-point line move."

Correspondingly, the moneyline saw a big shift at The SuperBook. It opened at Vikings -125/Raiders +105, and it's now Raiders -230/Vikings +195.

"It appears the Raiders' offense will be going full bore for the first half. It sounds like Minnesota will be playing mostly backups, including McCarthy. The sharps will always fade a backup rookie against a team that is playing more of its starters," Michaelson said.

The Raiders' commitment to starters also led to a notable movement on the total. It opened at 36 and is now out to 39, with stops at 38/38.5 along the way.

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -1
• Opening moneyline: Bills -115/Bears -105
• Opening total: Over/Under 36.5 points scored
• Time: 1 p.m. ET Saturday (NFL Network)

UPDATE NOON ET SATURDAY: An hour before kickoff, Buffalo is out to a 3-point favorite in BetMGM's NFL preseason Week 1 odds. The Bills opened -1.5 on Aug. 8, but the number flipped to Bears -2.5 last Saturday and spent time at Bears -3 Sunday and Monday.

The line made its way back toward Buffalo during the week. On Thursday, it got to Bills -1/-1.5/-2, then returned to -1.5. Friday brought moves to Buffalo -2/-2.5, and the line went to Bills -3 this morning.

In BetMGM's digital market (mobile/online betting), action is heavy to the Bills, at 69% of spread bets/82% of spread money.

The total is at 38, after opening at 37.5, dipping to 36.5 last Saturday and peaking at 38.5 Thursday. The Over is seeing 69% of tickets/64% of cash in BetMGM's digital sphere.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This is yet another game with fence-jumping movement, though modest. Buffalo opened -1.5 in TwinSpires' odds for NFL preseason Week 1. It's now at Chicago -1.

The Bills are seeing 60% of early spread tickets, while 65% of early spread cash is on the Bears.

"Sharp play on the Bears at +1 and pick," Lucas said.

The total is up to 38 from a 36.5 opener at TwinSpires. But 55% of tickets/71% of dollars are on the Under.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: This is the game many bettors and fans are looking forward to most. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams could make his much-anticipated debut for Chicago, after not playing in last week's Hall of Fame Game.

It seems less likely that Josh Allen and other key Bills players will play much if at all in the preseason opener for Buffalo. As such, this line also saw fence-jumping movement in odds for NFL preseason Week 1.

The SuperBook opened at Bills -1 on Aug. 1 and spent time at Bills -1.5 early on. But there was a run of movement on Aug. 3, first to Bears -1.5, then -2.5 and a couple of trips to -3. Today, the line receded to Chicago -1.5.

"There's been action all over the place on this one. We opened Buffalo -1, had sharp action move us as high as Chicago -3, then had a sharp group [on the Bills] play it back to the current number of Chicago -1.5," Michaelson said. "This is a good example of how the books are playing defense on preseason NFL. Sharp groups will be able to get ahead of the market and get good numbers on either side.

"I'm sure the public will be excited to see Caleb Williams play, and you could potentially see some support for the Bears based on that. But it's going to get overwhelmed by the sharp action."

The total in this game is on the rise, going from 36.5 to 37, then 38, all on Aug. 3.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

• Opening point spread: Steelers -2.5
• Opening moneyline: Steelers -145/Texans +125
• Opening total: Over/Under 37.5 points scored
• Time: 7 p.m. ET Friday (NFL Network)

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM pegged Pittsburgh as 2.5-point chalk when this game opened a week ago. Since then, the line has jumped the fence a couple times, and it's now out to Houston -3, 90 minutes before kickoff.

"We'd prefer the Steelers, but it's pretty mixed at the moment," BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.

BetMGM opened the total at 36.5 in its NFL preseason Week 1 odds market. On Monday, the number advanced to 37.5, and this afternoon brought another jump to 38.5.

However, the Under is seeing the majority of play. Still, Cipollini said there's not much liability on the total.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: As is often the case in preseason, significant line movement hit this matchup. TwinSpires Sportsbook opened at Steelers -2.5 and is now at Texans -2.5, making stops along the way this week.

Houston is netting 59% of spread tickets/72% of spread dollars in TwinSpires' NFL preseason Week 1 odds market.

"It's a mix of public and sharp money siding with the Texans," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. "I’m expecting the Texans to be a big public team this season."

The total is up to 37.5 from a 36.5 opener, with 53% of early tickets/59% of early dollars on the Over.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Pittsburgh has a quarterback competition, though at the moment, there's only one QB partaking. Justin Fields, traded from the Bears to the Steelers in March, is healthy and should play Friday night.

But Russell Wilson, let go by Denver and signed by Pittsburgh, has a calf issue and won't play this week.

Meanwhile, Houston already has an exhibition game under its belt. The Texans were 2.5-point favorites vs. Chicago in the Hall of Fame Game and lost 21-17.

However, QB C.J. Stroud did not play, and further, the game was called due to inclement weather in the third quarter. So at least with the oddsmakers, neither the SU nor ATS result counted for either team. Stroud and other starters will get time for Houston this week.

The SuperBook opened Texans-Steelers on Aug. 1 at Pittsburgh -2.5. Early this afternoon, the line first nudged to Steelers -2, then went down to pick in the NFL preseason Week 1 odds market.

"The market has moved Houston's way this week. It's hard to say if that's a reaction to Fields or just information about how many starters are likely to play for each team," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. "That happens a lot with preseason games, where one team is expected to play more starters than the other, or play starters for longer.

"Right now, we have a small decision needing Pittsburgh, as a result of people playing the market move."

The total hasn't budged off 37.5.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Baltimore Ravens

• Opening point spread: Ravens -3
• Opening moneyline: Ravens -170/Eagles +150
• Opening total: Over/Under 36.5 points scored
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This matchup has seen significant movement on BetMGM's NFL preseason Week 1 odds board. Baltimore opened -3 last Friday and nudged to -2.5 Sunday.

Then came news earlier in the week that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won't play tonight. That in part led to a fence-jumping move Monday, from Ravens -2.5 to Eagles -2. Philly fell to -1.5 Tuesday and -1 Wednesday, but today, the Eagles climbed to -1.5/-2/-2.5, and they're now at -2.

Point-spread count at BetMGM favors Baltimore tonight, surely due in part to the Ravens' years-long trend of being a solid preseason bet. But spread money is running closer, and in fact, Cipollini said the book would prefer the Ravens tonight.

The total opened at 37.5 and bottomed out at 34.5 Monday, with a few stops along the way. This afternoon saw upward moves to 35.5 and the current 36.

That said, more bettors are expecting a lower-scoring affair, though liability is modest, two hours before kickoff.

"More Under bets, for sure, but nothing notable right now," Cipollini said.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: TwinSpires opened Baltimore as 3-point chalk and saw this line roll the other way, to as far as Philadelphia -1.5. It's now Eagles -1, with 55% of tickets on the Ravens/75% of money on Philly.

"Sharp play on Eagles +3 and Eagles pick," Lucas said.

The total fell from a 37 opener down to 34.5, with tickets and money in the 2/1 range on the Under.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: From the beginning of the 2016 preseason through the first game of the 2023 preseason, Baltimore went on a ridiculous 24-0 SU run. The Ravens were a spread-covering ATM, as well, going 20-4 ATS in that span.

Baltimore lost its last two preseason games last season, SU and ATS. Still, the Ravens' long-term trend is quite impressive in the NFL preseason odds market.

"This one is interesting, because the public is aware of how good Baltimore has been in preseason in recent years," Michaelson said. "But it sounds like Philly is expected to play more of its defensive starters this week than expected, which is how you get such a big line move and total."

Indeed, this line has seen a substantial move since opening Ravens -3 on Aug. 1. And most of the movement came today. Baltimore slipped to -2.5 on Aug. 2 and returned to -3 this morning.

But in a span of 10 minutes this afternoon – again, on news of which starters are playing and for how long – the line jumped the fence all the way to Philadelphia -2.5. There were a few stops along the way: Ravens -2.5/pick/Eagles -1.5, and shortly after Philly hit -2.5, the line receded to -2.

"The public won't bet this game until day of, so they never had the opportunity to bet the worse number on Baltimore," Michaelson said, noting the pro bettors drove this line the Eagles' direction. "This will end up with every sharp betting Philly as a 'dog, and every public player betting Baltimore as a 'dog."

The total also saw notable movement today, from 37 to 34.5, with stops at 36, 35.5 and 35.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson