2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Harris vs Trump Now Pick ‘Em
U.S. presidential election odds remain a major topic as summer rolls along. And it appears there could be a new favorite soon.
In mid-July, Donald Trump was pulling away from President Joe Biden. But since Biden dropped out and Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, odds to win the U.S. presidential election have continued to tighten.
Here's everything you need to know about 2024 US presidential election odds: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from sportsbooks in Canada and the United Kingdom/Ireland, where betting on politics is legal.
US Presidential Election Odds
Market on the Move
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY, AUG. 8: When Harris first replaced Biden on July 21, Ladbrokes had her as the +225 underdog in its odds to win the presidential election. Slowly but surely, Harris closed the gap.
Now, a week into August, both Harris and Trump are -115 to win the office.
"This is the biggest price Trump has been since the end of May," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said, while noting that on Aug. 1, Trump was still at -162. "I think this is a combination of the market taking a little while to correctly respond to Kamala Harris, and also, over the last 24 hours, the selection of Tim Walz (as VP nominee). That's certainly given her chances a favorable boost."
And that's eliminated a significant chunk of Trump liability at Ladbrokes.
"We are still very much cheering Harris, but our liability on Trump isn't nearly as bad as it was even a month ago," McGrath said. "We've seen a flood of money for Kamala Harris over the last few weeks, offsetting a lot of the money on Trump over the last few months."
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY, JULY 29: A week after moving into the role of presumptive nominee, Harris continues to shorten as an underdog in presidential election odds. Since July 23, she's moved in from +163 to +140. And Harris was +225 on July 21, immediately after Biden withdrew.
On the flip side, Trump has slightly dipped over the past week, from -187 to -175. He was -200 on July 21, after Biden's exit.
"Ever since Biden's withdrawal, Harris has been very popular in presidential election betting. Over 90% of the bets struck [since July 21] have been on her," Ladbrokes' Thomas Young said.
And yet, the Vice President remains a good outcome behind the counter.
"Harris would be very good for us, despite the money that's come recently. We keep all the money on Biden, as it is a futures market," Young said.
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY, JULY 23: With the dust settling after Biden's withdrawal Sunday – though he remains in his role as president – odds have tightened up a bit between Trump and Harris over the past 48 hours.
At Ladbrokes Politics, Trump is the -187 favorite in 2024 US presidential election odds. That's in slightly from -200 on Sunday. Harris is the +163 second choice, after sitting at +225 following Sunday's announcement.
"I think it was expected in the markets that Biden would drop out of the race, even if it took a while for him to realize it for himself," Ladbrokes' Adam Williamson said. "He was odds-against to be the Democratic candidate for a couple weeks now. I think it was his disastrous debate with Trump that was the first time he went to a bigger price than Harris. Calling Volodymyr Zelensky 'Putin' and getting COVID kept on [lengthening] his odds."
Williamson said Ladbrokes' Yes/No market on Biden dropping out was all the way to Yes -600 before the book finally took it off the board. Trump vs. Harris is already seen as much more competitive.
"Trump drifted slightly in odds after the announcement, probably based on the fact that almost any Democratic candidate would stand a better chance of being next president than Biden," Williamson said.
Biden's endorsement of Harris also helped improve her odds. But while bettors are mostly looking at Harris or Trump, others are in the conversation.
"We’ve seen some interest in Michelle Obama and Hilary Clinton, as well," Williamson said. "Reading into the odds, it would seem the best hope of a Democratic victory is probably Michelle Obama. But she's still very unlikely to be the candidate."
Obama is the +1400 third choice in presidential election odds, and she's +1600 in Democratic nominee odds. Clinton is +5000 to win the election/+3300 to be the Dem nominee. Harris is massive -5000 chalk to be the nominee.
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY, JULY 21: The shoe finally dropped this afternoon. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the party's nominee.
By late last week, Ladbrokes Politics already had Harris as the second choice in 2024 presidential election odds. Moments after Biden's announcement, about an hour ago, Harris was +375. Now, she's at +225, with Trump the -200 favorite.
But the Democrats could have a contested convention next month in Chicago. That would throw this process open to other comers, further shaking up odds to win the presidential election.
Ladbrokes has Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama and Gretchen Whitmer all at +2000 to win the election. Hillary Clinton is +4000.
Paddy Power has presidential election odds at Trump -200/Harris +225. Newsom and Michelle Obama are +2500, Whitmer is +3300 and Clinton +4000.
In Democratic nominee odds, here's the breakdown at Ladbrokes:
- Harris -800
- Newsom +1400
- Whitmer +1400
- Obama +1400
- Clinton +2000
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY, JULY 19: This market continues to be volatile. In just the 36 hours, U.S. presidential election odds at Ladbrokes Politics have seen the following adjustments:
- Biden from +600 to +1600
- Harris from +600 to +250, now +275
- Trump from -300 to -175
Those moves are in large part due to multiple reports of renewed calls for Biden to drop out of the race. Wednesday's announcement that Biden has COVID probably didn't help matters either.
As Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said Wednesday: "Bettors believe that Trump has a better chance of beating Biden than a potential replacement."
So the VP is the beneficiary of all the latest news and subsequent betting/odds movement.
"The majority of business we're seeing is on Kamala Harris, with a smattering of bets for various outsiders," McGrath said. "The brave bet is obviously on the incumbent, Biden, at a now double-figure price (16/1). But it does appear that his race may be run now."
In Democratic nominee odds, it's looking just as bad for the incumbent Biden. He's now a +400 underdog, while his VP Harris is -222 chalk.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JULY 17: Ladbrokes Politics briefly suspended its US presidential odds market after Saturday's shooting. Kyle McGrath, head of political betting for Ladbrokes, said that upon reopening, the market was volatile.
Things have since stabilized, with a bigger favorite emerging.
"Betting markets would seem to suggest that this has dramatically increased Trump's chances of winning the presidency. He is now -300," McGrath said. "It has also had a massive impact on the Democrat side. Joe Biden is now +600 to win the Presidency."
After getting as short as +400 last week, Harris fell back as far as +1000. However, with more speculation this week on whether Biden ends up as the nominee, Harris joins Biden at +600 in Ladbrokes' odds to win the presidential election.
"I think we can presume that the betting markets believed that this [shooting] story would pause the campaign and dominate the news headlines for long enough to stall any momentum that had built up surrounding Biden's replacement," McGrath said. "We've also seen over the course of the last few weeks that there is a direct correlation between Biden's chances improving and Trump's.
"In other words, bettors believe that Trump has a better chance of beating Biden than a potential replacement."
And a Trump win would be a win for Ladbrokes customers.
"As a company, purely from a fieldbook perspective, a Trump victory would be a bad result for us. As a general rule, we tend to see more money for populist right-wing candidates, but even more so when that candidate is Donald Trump," McGrath said.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JULY 15: On Friday, Biden not only trailed Trump, but also Vice President Kamala Harris. BetMGM UK's 2024 U.S. presidential election odds had Trump at -225, Harris at +325 and Biden at +425.
Following a lot of market movement over the weekend, BetMGM UK is now at Trump -400/Biden +400/Harris +1000. At other sportsbooks across the pond, there's a range of odds on all three:
- Trump is generally in the -300 to -400 range, including -333 at Paddy Power. Ladbrokes Politics is on the lower end of the spectrum, at -275.
- Biden ranges from +400 to +500, including 5/1 on Ladbrokes and +450 at Paddy Power.
- Harris has a wider range, from +800 to +1200, including +1000 at both Ladbrokes Politics and Paddy Power.
In Ontario, Canada, which represents one of the newest betting jurisdictions in North America, political odds are a legal market. However, FanDuel Sportsbook took a different tack in Saturday's aftermath, releasing this statement:
"In light of recent events, FanDuel has made the decision to suspend its US election markets."
To be determined: When/if FanDuel will put presidential election odds back on the board. At the moment, all bets are live action, unless otherwise specified.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY, JULY 11: Today brought more changes at Ladbrokes Politics, where Biden is once again trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in odds to win the presidential election and odds to be the Democratic nominee.
"It's been a busy few hours. Harris is now into even money to win the nomination and 4/1 to win the presidency," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said.
Correspondingly, Biden slipped to +150 to be the Dem nominee and is +800 in US presidential election odds. That makes him the third choice, behind Trump – still in the -200 range as favorite – and Harris.
Interestingly, BetMGM UK's presidential election odds vary from Ladbrokes' numbers. Trump is the -225 favorite, Biden is the +450 second choice and Harris the +600 third choice.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY, JULY 5: It's getting messier by the day at the White House and for the Democratic Party. And that mess is showing up in presidential election odds.
The Fourth of July holiday did nothing to help Biden's prospects, which in fact worsened. The beneficiary: His Vice President, Kamala Harris.
"We've seen sustained support for Kamala Harris over the last 24 hours. She's now just +110 to win the nomination and +400 to win the Presidency, in from +168 and +600, respectively," said Kyle McGrath, head of political betting for Ladbrokes. "Gavin Newsom continues to drift as it looks more and more likely that it could be a straight shootout between Biden and his VP."
Earlier today, Biden was +600 to win the election and +138 to be the Dem nominee at Ladbrokes. He's now out to 8/1 to get a second term and the +175 second choice to be the nominee.
Trump remains the favorite, in the -175 range.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JULY 3: Other than Donald Trump remaining the favorite in odds to win the US presidential election, everything else has been turned on its head in the past 24 hours.
And really in just the past 60 minutes. The New York Times reported that President Joe Biden told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the race. That's in the wake of a dismal debate performance last week.
The White House is denying the report, but bettors and oddsmakers are off and running, regardless.
"Presumably fueled by the New York Times piece, the odds have changed drastically in the last hour. Biden is now 8/1, from 4/1, to win the election, as well as 2/1, from 1/2, to win the nomination," McGrath said.
Political betting is legal and robust in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and bettors particularly enjoy wagering on U.S. politics. And they're not looking toward Biden at the moment.
"In contrast, Harris is now 4/1 to win the election, from 8/1, and 11/8, from 4/1, to win the nomination," McGrath said.
Trump is currently the -167 favorite at Ladbrokes.
"Trump's price has been largely unaffected, while we've nudged in other Democratic candidates slightly. But generally speaking, Harris appears to be the one bettors are viewing as Biden's natural successor," McGrath said.
Paddy Power spokesperson Rachael Kane said it's a similar story at her shop.
"Customers' interest in Gavin Newsom has quieted the past few days. Most of his interest was seen in the hours following the debate," Kane said. "Twenty-six percent of bets on Kamala Harris have been placed in the past seven days. But it has been fairly spread out, rather than a big spike post-debate.
"Trump is still the most-backed candidate by Paddy Power customers. But it has slowed down since the debate."
Trump remains in the -175 range to win the election.
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY, JUNE 28: Ninety minutes of debate between Biden and Trump definitely made an impression on bettors Thursday night and into Friday. Biden visibly struggled throughout the debate, leading to a surge of action and improved odds on Trump both during and after the contest.
"It's been the busiest day so far for election betting," Ladbrokes' McGrath said. "At the start of the debate, we had Donald Trump -137 and Joe Biden +175 to win the election, with Biden a -700 [favorite] to win the Democratic nomination.
"Shortly after the debate concluded, this had changed to -175 Trump vs. +300 Biden, with Biden out to -175 just to win the Democratic nomination."
Biden eventually slipped as far as +400 to win the election and is at +300 at Ladbrokes a day after the debate.
Paddy Power also made several shifts in its US presidential election odds market. Before the debate, short favorite Trump was toggling between -137 and -150. Post-debate, Trump got to -200, and he's now -175.
Biden was shifting between +150 and +188 pre-debate, and +300/+400 in the aftermath. Biden is currently +400.
Paddy Power also made a significant shift on California Gov. Gavin Newsom's odds to win the U.S. presidential election. Newsom was +2000 pre-debate and moved all the way into +650 afterward.
"It looks like our customers believe Newsom is Biden his time. They're backing Newsom in droves," Paddy Power's Kane said, while apologizing for the Biden pun. "But Trump continues to be the favorite, in betting at least."
The Action Network's Andrew Lynch reported on significant odds shifts at BetMGM UK, as well.
Who Will Be The Nominee?
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JULY 3: As McGrath noted above, Harris is the big beneficiary today in both Democratic nomination odds and presidential election odds.
Last week, in the wake of Thursday's debate, both Ladbrokes and Paddy Power said Gavin Newsom was really the big winner. His odds moved much more than the prices of either Trump or Biden.
But Harris now appears to be in the driver's seat for the nomination, amid heightened speculation/reporting that Biden might drop out.
A week ago at Paddy Power, Harris was +1400 to be the nominee. Now, she's the +110 favorite, followed by Biden at +225 and Newsom at +700.
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY, JUNE 28: As McGrath previously pointed out, Democratic presidential nominee odds also got a jolt. Prior to the debate, Biden was the -700 favorite to be his party's nominee, a virtual lock as the incumbent.
But as the debate rolled on, and in the aftermath Friday, Biden's odds took a hit, while other Democrats started seeing action at Ladbrokes.
"Such was the business we were seeing on a range of Democratic candidates, we made the decision to suspend the betting on next Dem nominee overnight," McGrath said. "The [shortest] price Biden hit today as Dem nominee was -162. This has now settled down to -200 for the nomination."
Biden's odds pain proved to be an odds gain for the current governor of California.
"Gavin Newsom has been the biggest winner so far, in now to 7/1 from 25/1 to win the presidency, and 3/1 from 10/1 to win the nomination. We've also seen support for Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer," McGrath said.
There's been some buzz in political circles about Michelle Obama – wife of 44th President Barack Obama – as a possible nominee. But Ladbrokes isn't seeing much on that yet, with long odds on the former First Lady.
"Any sort of indication she would even consider running, though, and I'd expect her price to plummet instantly," McGrath said.
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