The big news as Wimbledon kicks off today in London? Serena Williams is back! The longtime world’s number one—now ranked 1204th after not playing a singles match since injuring her hamstring at last year’s Wimbledon—makes her 21st appearance in the world’s most legendary tennis tournament tomorrow against 115th-ranked Harmony Tan of France. And even though a record-tying 24th Grand Slam title might seem like a long shot for Williams, a seven-time Wimbledon champion who’s now 40 and playing with a new coach but not a lot of recent court time, it’s safe to say we can throw out the numbers, the rankings, the seedings, the odds, and the conventional wisdom. Has Williams ever done the conventional thing?
Her road to the finals won’t be easy, though. She’ll likely face seventh seed Karolina Pliskova in the third round, 12th-seeded Coco Gauff (who’s been on a bit of a roll lately) in the fourth round, fourth-seeded Paula Badosa in the quarters, and number one-seeded Iga Świątek in the semis. But Williams will be swinging for the fences and for history. Asked a few days ago by a reporter what she thought would be a good outcome for her Wimbledon return, Williams responded: “You know the answer to that—c’mon now.”
The other big news this year: After the tournament announced that Russian and Belarusian players (meaning, most prominently, Daniil Medvedev and Victoria Azarenka) wouldn’t be welcome this year—a controversial decision in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the ATP and WTA tours (the governing bodies of men’s and women’s pro tennis respectively) announced that they wouldn’t allow any ranking points to be given out at Wimbledon. Translation: If you win the tournament or do well this year, it won’t improve your ranking. Perhaps to assuage the burn, they’ll be giving out substantially more prize money this year. Such a move led a few players, including Naomi Osaka, to hesitate before committing to playing this year’s iteration (as it happens, though, Osaka soon sustained an injury that made the decision not to play an easy one).
So, after all that qualifying and throat clearing: Who are the favorites? Everything would seem to point to Świątek, who’s fresh from her second French Open title, losing only a single set along the way (and who’s on an astounding 35-match winning streak this year). That said, Świątek hasn’t played a tournament since Paris (she withdrew from the German Open with shoulder discomfort), and so comes into Wimbledon with no grass court warm-up, making a title far from a slam dunk.
Other players to keep an eye on are Gauff, who loves playing at Wimbledon and has enjoyed a great grass court season so far, and Ons Jabeur—Serena’s doubles partner on the grass at Eastbourne until a knee issue led to her withdrawal—who’s likely rested and ready. Looking for a Cinderella story akin to Emma Raducanu last year? (Raducanu is seeded 11th this year, and is on the opposite side of the bracket from Świątek, so keep your fingers crossed.) Keep an eye on Beatriz Haddad Maia, from Brazil, who emerged fairly from nowhere to go 13-1 on grass this year.
On the men’s side, with Roger Federer still not back on the tour, conventional wisdom has this as an inevitable Novak Djokovic–Rafael Nadal showdown. A possible match between the two of them would be beyond great, but Nadal’s chronic foot injury may very well hamper him here. And let’s face it: Although Nadal has won at Wimbledon twice, that was in 2008 and 2010. Never ever count Nadal out, but if he wins, it’ll be after a monumental struggle.
Other players to follow are Matteo Berrettini and Hubert Hurkacz. Both thrive on grass and come into Wimbledon with promising seasons on the surface so far. Fifth seed Stéfanos Tsitsipás seems almost cursed on grass, but he comes in riding some early season success. And if you haven’t yet witnessed the phenom that is Carlos Alcaraz, now’s the time to tune in. Some sort of elbow issue has prevented Alcaraz from playing since his quarterfinal loss at the French, and he’s not a grass specialist by any means, but if he’s playing his absolute best, there may be no one capable of stopping him.
