The 137th staging of the Wimbledon Championships began today, with first-round matches kicking off moments ago. Who are the favorites, the spoilers, the sure bets, the wild cards? Let’s look at the women’s tournament first.
If men’s tennis was, until recently, dominated by the so-called Big Three (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, with only the latter still playing—more below), the women’s tennis world seems to be slowly solidifying into its own Big Three, with some combination of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Aryna Sabalenka dominating most—but certainly not all—tournaments. That first one, though, is in a league of her own lately: Swiatek has won 45 of the 49 matches she’s played this year, is coming off winning her fourth French Open title, and seems utterly indomitable…except, for some reason which nobody has yet nailed down, Wimbledon. Almost incomprehensibly, she’s never gotten past the quarterfinals here. Is this going to be the year she breaks the spell? Nobody—but nobody—knows that answer, but here’s the thing: Swiatek faces unseeded—but potentially giant-killing—American Sofia Kenin in the first round. (Last year, Kenin knocked Gauff out of the tournament in the first round.) If she gets past her, she could face her nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko, in the fourth round. (Swiatek is 0-4 against Ostapenko.)
Fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina won here two years ago, but a repeat would seem unlikely: She’s been plagued by illness in recent months, and even recent weeks. Which brings us to Sabalenka and Gauff: The former seems to have moved beyond her moody inconsistency and is reaching the semifinals at majors consistently—but she pulled out of her final Wimbledon warmup with a shoulder issue. If that was merely precautionary, watch out for her here—but if that was anything significant or ongoing, it’s going to be a struggle for her. (Update: On Monday morning, Sabalenka, “heartbroken,” withdrew from the tournament because of that shoulder.)
Which leaves Gauff, seeded second: She’s the reigning US Open champion, she has made the semis at this year’s two previous majors, and, honestly, the draw seems to favor her. Barring an upset, her path to the fourth round seems secure—but it’s there that she could face four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, who’s been looking more and more fearsome in her (still-evolving) comeback.
Assuming what’s so far never happened—that Swiatek makes it to the final here—and assuming that the seeds play (in the way that they almost never quite seem to do), she’d play Gauff for the title. If that actually comes to fruition, we’re in for a barnburner. (And if it doesn’t, we’re likely along for the rise of a new star, so count us in in either case.)
As for the men: This Wimbledon marks Jannik Sinner’s first major as the world’s reigning number-one player, and if anyone’s on a roll and seems ready to consolidate, manifest, and generally dominate, it’s him. That said, he’s got a potential threat as early as the second round in Matteo Berrettini, who’s unseeded here and ranked a mere 65th after a long time away from the tour due to foot surgery, but who—when healthy—punches above his weight and is always dangerous on grass. Fifth-seeded Daniil Medvedev, also in his quarter, will likely have to get through Gregor Dimitrov—either of the above can dominate a tournament, but they rarely do so on grass.
It’s tough to see third-seeded Carlos Alcaraz—the defending champion here—having much trouble until the round of 16, or even the quarterfinals—but then again, he didn’t make it past the second round of the Queen’s Club Championships (the traditional grass-court Wimbledon warmup) a few weeks ago. But if we’re playing this as it lays, Alcaraz would likely meet Norway’s Caspar Ruud (fresh from attending Vogue World: Paris) or American Tommy Paul—and while Ruud’s eighth seed would seem to trump Paul’s 12th seed, we’re calling this one for the American and Paul’s relative prowess on grass.
There are, of course, a host of other players—Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev among them—capable of a surprise winning streak here, but the true wild card is the second-seeded legend Novak Djokovic. Three weeks after surgery on his knee for a torn meniscus, the seven-time Wimbledon champion, who’s now 37, will return looking for an eighth title here and another notch in his record 24-major-titles career. “Just the thought of me missing Wimbledon was just not correct,” Djokovic said a few days ago—and the tournament’s draw would seem to allow him a few more days of taking it easy, with his early matches all seemingly walks in the park. Come quarterfinal time, though, a player who’s not yet a household name unless you’re a tennis person—Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz, seeded seventh here—may present a real challenge for Djokovic (assuming Hurkacz gets by England’s favorite, Andy Murray, playing his last tournament at the All England Club this year).
Which brings us to the semifinals. As for who takes whom in the Sinner-Alcaraz-Djokovic sweepstakes…that’s beyond our pay grade here, and it’s why we watch tennis. Any combination of the above is capable of producing another classic. Push comes to shove, we’ll take Sinner to win it all.
