With the Oscars 2024 now fast approaching, the frontrunners for the top prizes are slowly emerging—though a few jaw-dropping surprises are still possible. Here’s the Vogue verdict on who will win, who should win, and who should’ve been a contender in 13 key categories, from Best Director to Best Original Song.
Best Picture
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things
Should’ve been a contender: May December
Christopher Nolan’s eye-popping epic is as close to a lock for Best Picture as it’s possible to be—it’s so far taken home the top prizes at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTAs and SAGs. Its presumed frontrunner status could lead voters to place other releases ahead of it on their ranked ballots, but even so, the support for its competitors is scattered and no other consensus choice seems to be emerging. If there was, somehow, a shocking final twist on the night—and it would certainly enliven the ceremony if there was—I would love to see Yorgos Lanthimos’s hallucinatory coming-of-age fantasy spoil things. In a post-Everything-Everywhere-All-At-Once Oscar landscape, it would be a fittingly wacky and exciting choice, while Oppenheimer feels like a return to the serious, stiff-upper-lipped status quo.
Having said that though, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and The Holdovers arguably have the same chance of swooping in as Poor Things does (which is to say, a very, very small one). This year’s 10-strong line-up in this category is the strongest it’s been in years, but I would’ve liked to see Todd Haynes’s soapy family drama May December in the mix, too. It proved to be too challenging and provocative for the Academy (particularly in its less-than-flattering portrayal of actors and their profession), but remains one of 2023’s most thrilling cinematic experiences.
Best Director
Will win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Should win: Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things
Should’ve been a contender: Greta Gerwig for Barbie
With the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice award, BAFTA and, crucially, the Directors Guild of America award already in his grasp, there’s no doubt that Nolan will be walking away with the Best Director statuette, and it’s hard to begrudge him—this is the auteur’s eighth Oscar nomination, following nods for Memento, Inception and Dunkirk, and it’s high time he had this particular prize on his mantlepiece, though Oppenheimer isn’t my favourite film in his oeuvre. Meanwhile, there’s Yorgos Lanthimos who has also, over the last decade, proven himself to be one of the most ambitious and provocative filmmakers working today, and does some of his best work to date in Poor Things. Anatomy of a Fall’s Justine Triet would also be highly deserving, as was the unfairly snubbed Greta Gerwig for Barbie.
Best Actress
Will win: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Emma Stone for Poor Things
Should’ve been a contender: Natalie Portman for May December
This race is still too close to call: for her quietly powerful turn in Killers of the Flower Moon, Gladstone has received the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, as well as the SAG (the latter perhaps the most important precursor), while Stone has scored the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, the BAFTA and the Critics’ Choice award. The standing ovation the former received at the SAG Awards shows the immense support she has within the industry, and her moving speech—delivered during the final voting window for the Oscars 2024, no less—should be enough to swing the pendulum in her direction.
But, if Stone does manage to pip her to the post, I’d be over the moon—her effervescent take on a Victorian woman with the brain of a baby is, without doubt, one of the performances of the decade, and far superior to her work in La La Land, for which she won her first Oscar. There’s no one I’d take off this shortlist—Sandra Hüller, Carey Mulligan and Annette Bening would all make worthy winners—but if it’s possible to add two additional slots, I’d award them to Natalie Portman, who is sensational in May December, and Greta Lee, who was sadly overlooked for Past Lives.
Best Actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
Should win: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
Should’ve been a contender: Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers
The story for Best Actor is remarkably similar to Best Actress, with two hopefuls surging ahead: Cillian Murphy took the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama, along with the BAFTA and the SAG, and Paul Giamatti secured the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy as well as the Critics’ Choice award. The former’s SAG win suggests he has the edge, though his understated awards campaign could leave room for Giamatti to squeeze past him at the very last minute. The latter, in my view, deserves it more for his lovable, curmudgeonly portrayal of a New England professor, as well as for his more than three-decade-long career as a whole, though I of course wouldn’t be sad to see Murphy emerge victorious either. They’re up against three formidable opponents—Bradley Cooper, Colman Domingo and Jeffrey Wright—but I still lament the absence of Andrew Scott, who is nothing short of incredible in All of Us Strangers.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Should’ve been a contender: Rosamund Pike for Saltburn
Another race which feels like a done deal. The breakout star of Alexander Payne’s heartwarming Christmas movie has taken almost every award going, including—deep breath—the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice award, BAFTA, SAG and Independent Spirit award, so it’d be a truly staggering result if the night doesn’t go her way. She’s wonderful in The Holdovers—hilarious and touching, sharp-tongued and deeply vulnerable—and this is, unquestionably, the coronation she deserves. She’s up against Danielle Brooks, Emily Blunt, Jodie Foster and America Ferrera, but I would’ve liked to see Anne Hathaway among them, too, for her glamorous and supremely confident turn in Eileen, as well as Rosamund Pike, who is a deadpan delight in Saltburn.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Robert Downey Jr for Oppenheimer
Should win: Robert Downey Jr for Oppenheimer
Should’ve been a contender: Charles Melton for May December
Oppenheimer’s Best Supporting Actor contender is in a comparable position to Randolph, having clinched the Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG and Critics’ Choice award, though Barbie’s Ryan Gosling is admittedly hot on his heels. Given the general dominance of Oppenheimer, though, it’s unlikely that he’ll have time to catch up now, and nor will his other competitors, Mark Ruffalo, Robert De Niro and Sterling K Brown. In this field, Downey Jr feels like the right victor. It would’ve been a different story, however, if Charles Melton had been recognised here—the rising star is simply extraordinary in May December, more than a match for his Oscar-winning co-stars Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, and emerged as this awards season’s dreamiest heartthrob, navigating red carpets and award shows with the ease and charm of a seasoned veteran. He could’ve given Downey Jr a real fight had he made it through the nominations process but, alas, it was not to be.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Should’ve been a contender: Emma Seligman and Rachel Sennott for Bottoms
Triet and Harari, one of my favourite couples on the 2024 awards circuit, gave an impossibly charming speech when they won their BAFTA recently, and the former was equally delightful when receiving her Golden Globes earlier this year. Considering that her Palme d’Or-winning, César-sweeping thriller has massively overperformed at the Oscars, garnering five nominations (for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Editing as well as Original Screenplay), it’s very likely that she and her partner will take this prize, and they’re definitely my choice to win for their masterful script. It’s also the only statuette the film has a decent chance of securing, and it’d be a crime if it went home empty-handed. The competition is stiff, however: The Holdovers and Past Lives are next in line, followed by May December and Maestro, though it would have been fun to see Emma Seligman and Rachel Sennott’s madcap comedy get a look-in here, too.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Cord Jefferson for American Fiction
Should win: Cord Jefferson for American Fiction
Should’ve been a contender: Ottessa Moshfegh and Luke Goebel for Eileen
Cord Jefferson’s audacious feature debut, which roared into the awards race after it received the prestigious People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, has made him a star, and earned five Oscar nods to boot: for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Score, as well as Adapted Screenplay. Its script is side-splitting and incisive, and has a lot to say about Hollywood and the publishing industry’s commodification of Black pain. It ought to take this prize, which is also the only award the film could feasibly pick up. In recent years, the Academy has often used its screenplay prizes to anoint exciting new writer-directors (or those reaching an exciting new phase of their career)—Emerald Fennell, Jordan Peele, Sarah Polley, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert—and presenting this to Jefferson would continue this tradition.
His screenplay wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTAs and Independent Spirit Awards suggest he has it in the bag, but this is one of the year’s toughest categories: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach are close behind him with Barbie (and this is probably the only prize the director could secure for her billion-dollar blockbuster), as is Poor Things’s Tony McNamara, and Nolan if Oppenheimer sweeps in the way that some expect. With the inclusion of The Zone of Interest in this line-up, Killers of the Flower Moon was a surprising omission, but I’d personally have liked to see Ottessa Moshfegh in there for her brilliantly slippery reimagining of her 2015 novel Eileen. Adapting one’s own work and making it feel so fresh and dynamic? It’s no easy feat.
Best International Feature
Will win: The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Should’ve been a contender: The Taste of Things
With the absence of Anatomy of a Fall in this line-up, after France failed to select it as its entry, Jonathan Glazer’s icy Holocaust drama has a clear path to victory, given that it’s also in the running for Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Sound. It could very well win that latter prize, but everything else seems to be beyond its grasp, meaning this is the only opportunity to reward the auteur for what is a unique and towering achievement. So far this awards season, it’s earned three BAFTAs, and only lost major prizes when facing Anatomy. It’s up against Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, and The Teachers’ Lounge—all of which are strong choices, but I do think Tran Anh Hung’s utterly ravishing The Taste of Things (the film France actually submitted) should have made this list as well.
Best Original Song
Will win: Billie Eilish and Finneas for “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Should win: Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt for “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Should’ve been a contender: Dua Lipa for “Dance the Night” from Barbie
It’s looking like recent Golden Globe recipients Billie Eilish and Finneas will take home their second Oscar in just three years for their mournful Barbie ballad—one of the pastel-pink romp’s big hits has to win here, given their immense popularity, and this is the most serious, Academy-friendly choice. However, I’d love to see Ryan Gosling’s Critics’ Choice award-winning viral earworm “I’m Just Ken” triumph here, purely because it seemed to define the utterly chaotic year that was 2023, and would be hilarious to look back on as a Best Original Song winner (in the same way that past victors like “Man or Muppet” or “It’s Hard out Here for a Pimp” are, for instance). Gosling’s upcoming Oscar performance is also guaranteed to be pure gold—as is his reaction if his song wins. Its writers, Ronson and Wyatt, have also won fairly recently though, for “Shallow” from A Star is Born.
They’re competing with “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Jon Batiste’s “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, and the 15-time-nominee Diane Warren (for “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot) who has an honorary Oscar but has never won a competitive award. Conspicuous in her absence, however, is Dua Lipa who made the shortlist but missed out on a nomination because the Academy doesn’t allow more than two songs from the same film to be recognised in the final five. More’s the pity—her song is arguably catchier than any of her rivals’.
Best Production Design
Will win: Shona Heath, James Price and Zsuzsa Mihalek for Poor Things
Should win: Shona Heath, James Price and Zsuzsa Mihalek for Poor Things
Should’ve been a contender: Tamara Deverell and Patricia Cuccia for Priscilla
The work Shona Heath, James Price and Zsuzsa Mihalek have done to bring Yorgos Lanthimos’s mind-bending world to life is astonishing both in terms of scale and detail, from the vast Lisbon soundstage to the phallic windows and moulded brass clitoris light switches on the Parisian brothel set (yes, really). Its wins at the BAFTA and Art Directors’ Guild Awards give it the edge over Barbie, as does the general enthusiasm around Poor Things, which has 11 Oscar nods to Barbie’s eight. Still, the latter’s sets are spectacular, too, and earned the film the Critics’ Choice award for Best Production Design, meaning it could easily spoil things here. Rounding out the nominees are Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon, but sadly missing is Priscilla, which was entirely ignored by the Academy but is meticulously designed throughout, painting a gloriously detailed picture of the titular icon’s girlhood and evolution into the glamorous and isolated wife of the king of rock ’n’ roll.
Best Costume Design
Will win: Holly Waddington for Poor Things
Should win: Holly Waddington for Poor Things
Should’ve been a contender: Sophie Canale for Saltburn
Another race in which Poor Things and Barbie are going head to head, Best Costume Design is difficult to call—both films won their respective categories (Excellence in Period Film for Poor Things, and Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film for Barbie) at the Costume Designers Guild Awards, while Poor Things took the BAFTA and Barbie the Critics’ Choice award. Yes, Jacqueline Durran’s recreations of Barbie’s decades-spanning looks were exquisite and the double Oscar winner would be a worthy victor here, but for their pure imagination and exuberance, first-time nominee Waddington’s elaborately ruffled creations would be my pick—and she’s the one I’d put my money on, too, given the love for Poor Things across the board. (Barbie faced some notable snubs in the nominations process, while the latter did not.)
It’s worth adding that Killers of the Flower Moon’s Jacqueline West has an outside chance here, too. She’s facing Oppenheimer’s Ellen Mirojnick, and Napoleon’s David Crossman and Janty Yates, but I’m mourning the absence of Priscilla’s Stacey Battat and, especially, Saltburn’s Sophie Canale who received the Excellence in Contemporary Film prize at the Costume Designers Guild Awards, and deserves more credit for bringing the mid-Noughties back to life in such rollicking fashion.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling
Will win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell for Maestro
Should win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell for Maestro
Should’ve been a contender: Ivana Primorac for Barbie
This is the only statuette that Maestro, once presumed to be an Oscar frontrunner, is likely to get, and it more than deserves it. There’s been endless chatter about the nose, but what’s truly remarkable is Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell’s work on both Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan as they age over the course of more than three decades, slowly becoming almost unrecognisable. At the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards, the film scooped Best Period Make-Up and Best Special Make-Up Effects over Poor Things, though the latter did win the BAFTA and could certainly swoop in here, as could Society of the Snow with its impressively gory prosthetics. Pour one out for Barbie, though, which took home the Critics’ Choice Award in this category, but was snubbed here.
This article first appeared on Vogue.co.uk
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