The deal
Mavericks get: Luka Doncic (No. 3 pick)
Hawks get: Trae Young (No. 5 pick), 2019 first-round pick (protected)
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Dallas Mavericks: A
Ordinarily, I'm not a believer in trading up in the draft. When I put together my version of a pick value chart for the NBA draft similar to the ones that are commonplace in football, I found that, when the higher salary was factored in, teams overrated higher picks as compared to lower picks.
Additionally, the results of trading up in the draft have typically not been great. For every situation like Utah last year, which moved up to No. 13 to take Rookie of the Year contender Donovan Mitchell, there are multiple deals like the Chicago Bulls giving up the picks that became Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic (plus a future second-round pick and taking back the bad contract of Anthony Randolph) in order to trade up for Doug McDermott.
Every rule has its exception, though, and this trade appears to be one of them. In moving from the fifth pick to the third pick, the Mavericks assured themselves landing my top prospect in this year's draft, Luka Doncic. Doncic doesn't just have the best statistical projection by my model in 2018 -- he has the best ever (ever in this case being back to 2003, surpassing Anthony Davis, though LeBron James is not included because he came to the NBA out of high school).
If we go by Doncic's consensus projection, taking into account his slide to No. 3 in the draft, he's projected to provide $27 million more value over the life of his four-year rookie contract than Young. The difference in salary jumping up from fifth to third takes out about $5 million of that, leaving Doncic at No. 3 as $22 million more valuable than Young at No. 5. Because that gap is so enormous, it will be impossible for Dallas to lose this trade on paper no matter where the future pick the Mavericks will send to Atlanta falls.
The value of first-round picks will diminish going forward as the rookie scale for first-round picks continues to increase as part of the current NBA collective bargaining agreement, jumping by 15 percent next season along with a bump for the growth in the salary cap. As a result, I project only the No. 1 pick in 2019 as more valuable ($26 million net value) than the difference between Doncic and Young. And if the Mavericks somehow win the lottery next year, they'll keep their pick, which is protected in the top five, according to a Yahoo report.
Now, so far this analysis has assumed that Doncic is indeed the generational prospect my projections suggest. Clearly, at least the Phoenix Suns (who took Deandre Ayton at No. 1), Sacramento Kings (who took Marvin Bagley III at No. 2) and Hawks disagree. It remains to be seen whether his relatively average athleticism will prevent Doncic from becoming the same kind of contributor in the NBA he was in Europe as a teenager.
Doncic's fit in Dallas will be interesting. The Mavericks took their point guard of the future, Dennis Smith Jr., in the lottery a year ago. While Smith's rookie season was uneven, at age 20 he's on track to become a capable NBA starter. That will push Doncic to an off-ball role as secondary ballhandler.
Doncic shot an effective 47.4 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities from the shorter FIBA 3-point line this season -- which isn't great -- according to Synergy Sports tracking. Smith actually showed somewhat more potential as a floor spacer, making 37.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s, per NBA Advanced Stats. (Smith's overall 3-point percentage was pulled down by attempting 2.7 pull-up 3s per game and making them at just a 27.4 percent clip.)
Suddenly, finding a third perimeter player to fit with Doncic and Smith becomes a crucial task for Dallas. That player needs to be capable of defending the opponent's best wing scorer, no matter his size -- a task Doncic should not have to take on -- and spacing the floor for Doncic and Smith with 3-point shooting. For now, Wesley Matthews plays that role, but at age 31 (32 in October) and heading into the final season of his contract, Matthews is unlikely to be part of the Mavericks' mix long term.
If Dallas can find the right fit alongside Doncic and Smith, coach Rick Carlisle should enjoy taking advantage of having two good pick-and-roll options. Much like how former Carlisle assistant Terry Stotts uses Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum with the Portland Trail Blazers, Carlisle can design sets that get Doncic and Smith good opportunities to run pick-and-roll when the ball is swung to them on the weak side of the court after help defenders are distracted by the threat the other player presents.
The other step in this process will be finding Doncic and Smith a lob threat to serve as roll man from the center position. Moving up from No. 5 to No. 3 cuts slightly into the Mavericks' cap space, leaving them with approximately $17 million to spend if they pick up Dirk Nowitzki's team option and retain the rights to free agents Seth Curry, Yogi Ferrell and Salah Mejri.
Shedding some of those free agents could put Dallas in position to make a max offer to Houston Rockets restricted free agent Clint Capela, who would be an ideal fit with Doncic and Smith. Alternatively, the Mavericks could make a run at DeMarcus Cousins if the New Orleans Pelicans are unwilling to offer anywhere close to his $30.3 million max, though Cousins wouldn't fit as ideally with Doncic and Smith in terms of game or age, not to mention his health as he returns from an Achilles tear.
Make no mistake, Dallas is taking a risk here. If Doncic proves just a decent NBA player, and not a star, giving up a potential lottery pick to move up two spots will look like a mistake in hindsight. Still, I'm enough of a believer in Doncic's potential to view this trade as well worth the risk.
Atlanta Hawks: D
There's certainly a way to justify this trade from the Hawks' perspective. If they weren't sold on Doncic's potential, picking up a future first-round pick and getting the player they really wanted is a much better move than simply picking Young at No. 3.
After all, if we look at the average values of the two picks, this is surely a huge win for Atlanta. The typical difference between the value provided by the No. 3 pick and the No. 5 pick over their first two contracts is less than $3 million, and even with the rookie scale increasing next season, all 30 first-round picks are worth more than that. So from that standpoint, the Hawks can't lose!
Of course, for all the reasons I just laid out, Doncic isn't a typical No. 3 pick, so Atlanta had to aim higher than just winning the trade by a value chart that is incapable of considering such distinctions (or accounting for a 2019 draft that appears relatively weak at this point). I would have preferred simply taking Doncic to making this deal.
None of this pessimism should be construed as a knock on Young, who landed at No. 3 in my draft projections behind Doncic and Ayton. Aside from the inevitable comparisons to Doncic because of this trade, going to the Hawks looks like an ideal scenario for Young, assuming they trade starting point guard Dennis Schroder sooner rather than later.
Atlanta's rebuild, still in the early stages, has produced some solid contributors (John Collins and Taurean Prince foremost among them) but has lacked a star. Young can play in an offense built around his ability to pull up for 3s and distribute out of the pick-and-roll, with Collins as a terrific roll man. And with the Hawks still very much thinking long term, there's little pressure on him to produce right away.
Having added this draft pick from Dallas to two extra ones in this year's first round and potentially another in 2019 or 2020 from the Cleveland Cavaliers (top-10 protected both years), Atlanta should be able to add plenty of young talent to supplement the pieces already in place.