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Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire speaks at a campaign rally in Gilford, N.H., Sept. 22, 2020/New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire speaks at a campaign rally in Gilford, N.H., Sept. 22, 2020/New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware
Sep 10
Robert F. Bukaty, Mary Schwalm/AP

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4 hours ago

What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election

The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
4 hours ago
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
4 hours ago

What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
4 hours ago
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
September 10

6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware

Both states pick their next governors this year.
September 10
Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire speaks at a campaign rally in Gilford, N.H., Sept. 22, 2020/New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
September 09

What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate

Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
September 09
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off in their first head-to-head presidential debate on Sept. 10.
September 09

Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast

Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
September 09
See how 538's presidential forecast would change if Harris or Trump win a specific state.
September 07

What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
September 07
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
September 07

3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
September 07
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
September 06

The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion

High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
September 06
People wait in line for early voting for the midterm elections at Ponce De Leon Library on Nov. 4, 2022 in Atlanta.
September 05

Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?

We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
September 05
ActiVote is a voter-education tool that also conducts polls via its smartphone app.
September 04

What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
September 04
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
September 04

How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast

Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
September 04
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
September 04

Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 04
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
September 04

Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?

Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.
September 04
How popular are Vice President Kamala Harris and her policy positions?
September 03

Is the Democratic Party a strong party?

Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle.
September 03
Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepts the presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024.
August 30

Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after

Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
August 30
Vice President Kamala Harris's position in the polls has remained steady since the Democratic National Convention
August 30

How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race

538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
August 30

How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast

Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
August 30
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
August 30

Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
August 30
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
August 28

How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?

The party played to its strengths on issues like abortion rights and democracy.
August 28
Attendees hold freedom signs on the second day of the Democratic National Convention, August 20, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
August 28

How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump

We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling.
August 28
How 538's Harris-Trump forecast differs from its Biden-Trump forecast.
August 27

3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire

Data and research suggest they could cost Trump support.
August 27
Former President Donald Trump participating in a Q&A with Rachel Scott, senior congressional correspondent for ABC News, during the National Association of Black Journalists Annual Convention and Career Fair at Hilton Chicago July 31, 2024.
August 27

What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
August 27
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
August 27

Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast

The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
August 27
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
August 27

How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
August 27
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
August 26

What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?

Democrats could lose a seat in the Evergreen State but make national gains.
August 26
House primary results in Washington state tend to predict general election trends both locally and nationally.
August 23

How much momentum will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump?

Polls show Kennedy's supporters only slightly favor the former president.
August 23
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during the Freedom Fest at the Caesars Forum Conference Center, July 12, 2024, in Las Vegas.
August 23

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works

Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model.
August 23
How 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast works.
August 23

Harris says she will 'fight for America's future' on final night of the DNC | 538

The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
August 23
The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
August 22

What you might've missed at the DNC

Democrats have leaned into themes of "joy" and "freedom" this week.
August 22
SlackChat quote from 538's contributor, Meredith Conroy
August 21

Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
August 21
Chicago's young voters voice their opinion on 2024 presidential election
August 21

Yes, party conventions matter

Most viewers are partisans, but the events help energize the party bases.
August 21
Political conventions tend to attract viewers who are already politically engaged and partisan-affiliated.
August 21

The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast

The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
August 21
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
August 19

Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
August 19
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
August 19

How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast

538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
August 19
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies?
August 19

Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?

538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
August 19
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
August 19

Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago

538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
August 19
538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
August 16

How do voters pick a candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
August 16
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
August 16

How important is the border for Latino voters? | 538 Politics Podcast

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
August 16
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
August 16

Democratic support among Latino voters has shifted since Biden dropped out

538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
August 16
538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
August 13

Do voters think of Harris as a DEI candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik discuss polling around the belief that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be a DEI candidate.
August 13
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik discuss polling around the belief that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be a DEI candidate.
August 13

What does poll denialism reveal? | 538 Politics Podcast

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich play another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling?"
August 13
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich play another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling?"
August 13

Trump’s line of attack for the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about former President Donald Trump’s latest strategy to win votes.
August 13
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about former President Donald Trump’s latest strategy to win votes.

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