Monday, July 22, 2024
How to evaluate HR-saving plays, part 3 of 4: Speed
Having discussed Presence or Attentiveness plays, as well as Timing plays, we now turn our attention to the third kind of HR Saving plays: Speed
Setting aside the fence, Catch Probability is largely focused on how much Distance an outfielder has to run (from his starting point) and how much Time the ball is in the air for the outfielder to catch. Distance over Time is Speed. This is how we evaluate outfield defense. We intuitively understand this, even if we don't explicitly say it. That's because we don't have any easy reference points to say how many feet and how much time the play is. Until Statcast.
With Statcast, we know the Opportunity Time, and we know the Opportunity Distance. And so, we know the Opportunity Space.
The wall presents an extra challenge for us. The outfielder sees the fence as an impediment because in these particular HR saving plays, they are about to crash into a wall. This is unlike the Presence and Timing plays where the outfielder won't crash into the wall.
Even within the Speed plays involving the wall, there's a subset of plays as to whether the outfielder has to run-and-jump into the wall, or run-thru the wall. Each presents their own challenge. When it comes to tracking a ball 400 feet away, how high the ball is up the wall is sometimes difficult. Each foot matters a great deal vertically much more than it means horizontally. A ball measured 5 feet closer or deeper has a much smaller impact in our evaluation than a ball measured 5 feet higher or lower.
These speed plays are analogous to the 1-run save for a relief pitcher who comes into the game with the bases loaded and 0 outs being much different than a 3-run save with the bases empty.
There is probably no play more at odds between the eye test and the value conclusion than the HR saving play. And it all comes down to distinguishing about the different kinds of HR Saving plays.
Part 4 of 4?