Institute for the Study of War

NEW: Major Publication: Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War Ukraine’s unfolding Kursk Campaign shows that the battlefield is not fully transparent despite pervasive surveillance by both sides and that concealing operational intent can still achieve operational surprise. The war in Ukraine has seen the most advanced use of offensive and defensive electronic warfare (EW) in history. Pervasive reconnaissance drones have made the battlefield nearly transparent — except when the adversary has been able to blanket it with effective defensive EW. Despite this formidable technological obstacle (and many others, discussed below), the Ukrainians, against great odds, were able to conceal their intent for long enough to launch a successful penetration attack and subsequent exploitation into Russian territory. In a new paper, “Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War, ISW President Kimberly Kagan and Director of the Critical Threats Project at American Enterprise Institute Frederick Kagan offer a new framework within which Ukrainian forces and their Western backers can break the current positional warfare and allow Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlefield. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/ezqYY7HX

NEW: Russia conducted one of the largest combined series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure to date on August 26. Read more in the August 26, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: https://lnkd.in/eqizYp-y Additional Key Takeaways: Ukraine issued a warning to Belarus amid the recent buildup of Belarusian forces at the Ukrainian border in Belarus' Gomel Oblast. The current Belarusian build-up along the Ukrainian border is likely intended to divert and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider frontline, as ISW continues to assess that Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to constraints facing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to strike Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast and an oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast with drones on the morning of August 26. Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations within their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 26, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any significant confirmed or claimed advances. The Kremlin may be leveraging the leadership of the prominent Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel to set cultivate increased Russian influence in Iraq. Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko was reportedly in charge of a Kremlin think tank that tried and failed to establish rhetorical justifications for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine after the fact, underscoring the Kremlin's rhetorical failures in the first months of the war and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued prioritization of loyalty over competency in officials. Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City, north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and west of Donetsk City. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to recruit foreigners to fight with the Russian military in Ukraine.

NEW: CTP-ISW continues to assess that an Iranian drone and missile strike targeting Israel is the most likely Iranian course of action. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri said on August 26 during a ceremony for the new Iranian Minister of Defense Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh that Iran and the Axis of Resistance will retaliate against Israel “separately and independently.” Iran will likely take lessons from Hezbollah’s attack to tailor its retaliatory strike to fulfill Iranian objectives. Read more from the August 26, 2024 edition of the Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/ebY3ucfX The IDF assessed that Hezbollah launched less than 50 percent of the number of munitions it intended to launch during its August 24-25 attack on Israel. Iran is engaging with international mediators in the most recent round of ceasefire-hostage negotiations. Hamas launched a single rocket targeting Tel Aviv on August 25 from northern al Qarara, Khan Younis. The IDF was operating in al Qarara, possibly indicating that Hamas was faced with a decision to use its remaining rocket or lose it to Israeli ground operations.

Russia’s prioritized effort to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and Ukraine’s incursion into Russia represent two very different approaches to warfare. The Russian offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk is emblematic of the Russian approach to the war in Ukraine that embraces positional warfare for gradual creeping advances. Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, meanwhile, illustrates how Ukrainian forces can use maneuver warfare to offset Russian manpower and materiel advantages. In a new Briefing Room video, Russia Analyst Riley Bailey discusses a framework for assessing the significance of the current Russian and Ukrainian operations for the course of the war. Watch the full video here: https://lnkd.in/e77GwYg3

The Institute for the Study of War, a leading think tank, said the Chinese military conducted a 30-hour patrol of the Taiwan Strait that ended Wednesday in a possible bid to extend its legal claims over the waterway. “The increase in maritime traffic in the Taiwan Strait risks accidents and other incidents involving PRC and [Taiwanese] vessels, which the PRC may use as a pretext to expand the scope of its law enforcement activities against Taiwan,” the institute said in a report. https://lnkd.in/epaCwB7n Report | China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 23, 2024: https://lnkd.in/egjvExwQ

NEW: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a drone and rocket attack on Israel in response to Israel killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah meant for its attack to be much larger than it was. Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance have indicated that the Hezbollah attack is only the beginning of their retaliation. The Axis of Resistance will likely learn lessons from the Hezbollah attack in order to improve the efficacy of future attacks on Israel. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/e3kTizDK Key Takeaways: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei referenced the Axis of Resistance’s war against Israel during a prayer ceremony in Tehran. Hamas rejected Israel’s “new ceasefire conditions” following negotiations between US, Egyptian, Israeli, and Qatari officials in Cairo.

NEW: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently regained lost positions in Kursk Oblast amid reports of continued Ukrainian attacks in the area on August 25. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/e4Md2xmv Key Takeaways: The Russian military likely continues to redeploy forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. French authorities arrested Telegram founder Pavel Durov on August 24, prompting concern among Russian ultranationalist milbloggers about their ability to report freely on the war in Ukraine. ISW has not observed any direct evidence indicating that Durov's arrest will affect Telegram operations in the near term, however. Russian milbloggers reacted to Durov's arrest by focusing on how Russian soldiers rely on ad-hoc communications, including Telegram, for organizing operations in Ukraine and called on the Russian military command to establish an adequate official communication system. Russian forces recently advanced near and within Toretsk and southwest of Donetsk City.

NEW: Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian military targets within Russia’s rear are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities throughout the theater, and the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons would allow Ukrainian forces to strike a wide range of significant targets undergirding Russia’s war effort. An unnamed senior Biden administration national security official reportedly stated that Ukrainian strikes with Western-provided weapons against targets within Russia would not be effective because the Russian military has redeployed military aircraft from Russian airbases near Ukraine — but this assessment ignores how Russian forces are leveraging sanctuary space in deep rear areas within Russia for a wide array of infrastructure besides airfields to support military operations against Ukraine. Assessment: https://lnkd.in/evtf-GS6 More: The redeployment of Russian air assets from Russian air bases in range of ATACMS does not remove the utility of using ATACMS against other Russian military targets. Ukrainian forces do not have to strike every single Russian military and paramilitary object in Russia within range of Western-provided weapons to start generating significant operational pressures on the Russian military. Recent successful Ukrainian strikes against Russian military targets within ATACMS range with Ukraine’s own domestically produced precision weapons demonstrate that Ukraine still has a requirement to conduct strikes that lifting the US restrictions could help fill. Some US officials assess that the Russian military will likely need to redeploy significant forces from Ukraine and/or operational reserves to repel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations within their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 24, and neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any significant claimed advances. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on some of the objectives of the Ukrainian operation into Kursk Oblast on August 24. Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner of war (POW) exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Kursk Oblast officials announced the creation of the BARS-Kursk volunteer detachment on August 24 and stated that the detachment will fight solely within Kursk Oblast.

NEW | Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, August 24, 2024: A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on August 24 to “listen to the results of the negotiations” between US, Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari mediators. CIA Director William Burns, senior Biden administration adviser Brett McGurk, Mossad director David Barnea, Egyptian General Intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani are expected to attend the talks in Cairo. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eSVRuH2e Key Takeaways: Iran: The newly appointed Iranian foreign affairs minister reiterated that Iran will retaliate for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh and other senior Axis of Resistance leaders. IRGC-affiliated media claimed that Israel could not counter a multi-front attack by Iran and the Axis of Resistance.

Key takeaways from the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for August 23, 2024: https://lnkd.in/e2WxpKCZ Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast on August 23. Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukrainian forces can leverage tactical and technological advantages to offset Russian materiel advantages. US President Joe Biden announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on August 23. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted another drone strike against the oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast on August 23. Islamic State (IS)-affiliated inmates took prison employees and other inmates hostage at a penal colony in Surovikino, Volgograd Oblast on August 23. Russian milbloggers reacted to the hostage crisis with criticisms of the Russian prison system and migration policy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed India's support for peace in Ukraine on the basis of India's participation in Ukraine's July 2024 peace summit and signed several bilateral cooperation agreements during a visit to Ukraine. Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. Russian authorities continue efforts to leverage conscripts to free up manpower elsewhere for combat operations in Ukraine.