The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number

Epidemiology. 2014 Mar;25(2):203-6. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000055.

Abstract

Background: There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed.

Methods: Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states.

Results: The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%).

Conclusions: Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / transmission*
  • Linear Models
  • Pandemics*
  • Schools*
  • Seasons*
  • Sentinel Surveillance
  • Time Factors
  • United States / epidemiology