A decade ago, an Englishman, Irishman and Scotsman walked
into a pub... One said ‘I’ll have a bitter’, another said ‘I’ll have a stout,’
the other said ‘I’ll have a lager’. Those were the three default choices you
knew would be on tap, and while some drinkers had a brand preference (or, more
likely, brands they wouldn’t drink,
with the bitter drinker dismissing the keg taps and the lager guy not even
acknowledging the handpulls), many ordered by these categories – it’s just what
people knew of as beer.
Today, three people walk into a pub and it’s likely one of
them will ask for a pale ale or IPA without looking at what’s on – and that’s a
significant change. These styles are now part of the wider beer vocabulary and
part of new drinking habits and I think this is the one significant trend for
British beer in 2016.
Pale and Hoppy
Hops have created a new interest in beer specifically with
the aroma and flavour of new world varieties – that citrus and tropical fruit burst
that so many people enjoy. These hops have been used for a long time but now knowledge
of them has become far more mainstream, as has their use, so I think pale ales,
IPAs and their off-shoots (pale and hoppy session beers, Session IPAs, hoppy
lagers) are going to dominate drinking for a long time because, for many people, these qualities are new and interesting.
I do think the profiles of pale ales
et al will evolve – less malt (but still balanced balance), more aroma and lower bitterness (see
Tropical Fruit Juice for
more), a trend towards lower alcohol – these lower alcohol versions will, I
believe, start to see Best Bitters updated or phased out. It’s already
happening with the pale and hoppy session beers and many new breweries aren't having a traditional bitter in their range.
I can’t see there being any other mainstream or widespread beer trend beyond
more hoppy beers. When you can walk down any British high street and can
drink these beers on tap in any Wetherspoon then that’s a big deal and I expect
we’ll see more of the larger groups following this.
There are further things which I think will be of interest
in 2016…
Cloudwater’s
blog on their Double IPA, featuring feedback,
comments and recipes from some top brewers, shows a new openness in brewing and
a smartness that’s refreshing to see. It’s great that techniques are being talked
about and brewers are sharing their thoughts and experiences. The better end of
British brewing is getting smarter and using different techniques to get better
brews, which will hopefully spread through the industry and raise the overall
quality (because there really is still too much poor quality beer being brewed).
Likewise,
this forum thread from Ryan Witter at Hill
Farmstead is great: it’s open and honest and deals with technical issues in a
smart way.
Smashing Pale Ales
and IPA
Related to everything I’ve said so far, I reckon 2016 will
be the year of the experimental pale ale. Not experimental as in weird or
brett-fermented or different colours or anything like that, but experimental in
terms of techniques, ingredients and processes. This may see more single-hopped
beers (and SMASH – single malt and single hop – beers), beers using more aroma
hops, hopefully more of the newer UK hop varieties, utilising hop oils, focusing on different malts (and getting a good depth
of malt without caramalt or chewy, heavy profiles), different yeasts and
fermentation profiles (hopefully cleaner ones). Basically, I think hoppy beers will get smarter and the
qualities will evolve.
The Style of 2016
There have been bursts of styles and processes in the last
few years, whether it’s big barrel-aged beers, saisons or fast sours, but they
aren’t trends as much as they’re trials – trials in the brewery (can we brew
it?) and trials in the market (will people drink it?). Those beers will hang
around but only as small-scale brews. The only one style that I can see
standing out in 2016 is Session IPA (it pretty much owned the second-half of
2015 as well) and that fits in the pale hoppy area I’ve mentioned above –
it’s just another way to brew a bright, well-hopped beer and it may well be the
beer that brewers use to try out different techniques.
Say Hello To…
We can already see this happening in the
US and the UK (Bloody Ell, High Wire Grapefruit), but
fruit looks to be an increasingly used additional ingredient in hoppy beers and also beyond. Fruit works
because it adds an extra level of accessibility to a beer because people know
what mango tastes like even if they’ve never had a saison before. It also helps
to add an extra juicy, fruity quality to a beer. You want that IPA to actually
taste like tangerines? Then add actual tangerines.
Say Goodbye To…
What about styles we won’t see? Black IPA might be done for.
Does anyone drink them anymore? The generic brown British bitter is going to be
replaced by paler, brighter, hoppier beers. I think we’ll see less saisons,
though the breweries who specialise in them will continue to make great
versions – I think it’ll stop being in a brewery’s limited edition rotation
because it’s not necessarily a widely popular beer. And there’ll be fewer sour
beers this year, though, like saisons, those who already do a great job of
making them will continue. The dry-hopped sour could increase in popularity –
look at Chorlton, Beavertown, Buxton and Siren for their success with this.
More Breweries Means Adjusted
and Focused Beer Ranges
There are now a huge number of breweries, meaning pubs have a crazy amount of beers to pick from. This could signal breweries
limiting their range to nail the consistency instead of focusing on brewing
20-odd different beers in a year (though special beers remain important), where having some beers they sell repeatedly is crucial. Breweries will also possibly re-work their ranges to take in new styles and
swap out less-popular ones. Also, as the beers reach into the mainstream,
brewers have to be careful not to put off drinkers with weird or not-delicious
beers. Quality has to become more important than variety.
I’m interested to see if there’ll be more breweries who are
very niche and specific in what they do – someone like Chorlton specialising in
British sour beers. The opposite of this is the Cloudwater approach: a
seasonally-rotating range of beers which produces a wide range of styles to a
good quality – wheats, dark ales, lagers, IPAs, and more. I like this approach.
These little pockets of British brewing are interesting to follow.
The Event Beer
The ‘event’ releases – limited-run beers released on one day
to be drunk in a small range of places – will continue and increase. Cloudwater’s
next DIPA will be an event, likewise BrewDog’s Born To Die, and some of the
bigger, stronger stouts like Buxton’s Yellow Belly. These are for the hardcore
geek end of the market.
Murky Gets Clean
One key point is beer clarity, which also links to quality. I’m very happy with
unfiltered, hazy beer but there’s a point at which hazy becomes murky and
that’s not cool. I think – and hope – we’ve passed peak murk. Beavertown are one
of the more prominent (in terms of scale and popularity) brewers of unfiltered
beer and open a can of theirs today and it’s certainly not murky – they are hazy, for sure, but they aren’t soupy and thick. A
year ago some of them were soupy, so this is already changing. Very cloudy beer
is not a good thing and it needs to disappear because it’s not a difficult
thing to sort out.
Takeovers
Hard to ignore this given
Camden Town’s sale and what’s
happening in the US. I’m sure there’ll be more changes in ownership. I expect
there are on-going discussions with breweries happening right now. Heineken
will be looking for a UK brewery that they can make national and then global.
They might take on Meantime if it’s true that ABI/SAB no longer want them – it
at least guarantees them a large London facility with lots of taps around the
capital. A more significant purchase would be someone like St Austell or Adnams
– regional breweries, already with big reach, great beers and pub estates. Or established
mid-sized breweries like Purity. What about Sam Smith – big in the US,
well-regarded for their beers, lots of pubs and potential to make them a bit
sexier? Smaller brewers might seem appealing, but they are also long-term
projects compared to an existing large brewery and very few breweries are
already at a significant-enough scale, reach and quality to be considered yet.
Consolidation
In many ways I think this could be a year of consolidation and maturation.
We’ve had an uncontrolled explosion of beer and it’s time to figure out what
the hell is happening in British brewing right now. There will be openings,
closings and changes. There’ll be new beers, updated recipes and beers being
retired. Breweries will be looking at what they make and trying to work out
what the best approach is for their future. And there’ll be lots to drink and
talk about as this whole craft beer thing really hops forward into the
mainstream.