SPC AC 121724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
   TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible
   across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   The remnants of TC Francine will begin the day somewhere across
   eastern Arkansas and slowly drift east through the day while
   weakening. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will persist across the
   southern periphery of this remnant low. Farther west, a strong
   mid-level trough across the northern Rockies will weaken and move
   into the Canadian Prairies. A remnant surface cold front will
   traverse the Northern Plains through the day on Friday.

   ...Portions of the Southeast...
   A plume of tropical moisture will remain from the Florida Panhandle
   into central Tennessee on Friday. A mostly uncapped airmass is
   expected through the entire convective period. However, some greater
   instability is likely during the afternoon with some surface
   heating. However, given the limited inhibition, convective
   overturning is expected before more substantial instability can
   develop. Nonetheless, an extended period of 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear will support some multicell
   clusters or occasional supercells. This may result in a brief
   tornado or two and the potential for locally damaging wind gusts,
   primarily during the afternoon/early evening on Friday.

   ...Northern Plains into the central Plains...
   A line of thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front in
   North Dakota and South Dakota on Friday. However, instability will
   be relatively limited and elevated (500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This weak
   instability combined with limited upper-level synoptic support,
   should mitigate any severe weather threat.

   Farther south, a few thunderstorms are possible in the Texas
   Panhandle and into western Oklahoma in the vicinity of a
   dryline/weak surface low where temperatures are expected to warm
   into the low 90s. While a few storms may develop, significant
   inhibition/dry air entrainment will likely keep the threat for more
   robust/severe convection muted.

   ..Bentley.. 09/12/2024

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