Weakness is Lethal: Why Putin Invaded Ukraine and How the War Must End

Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, not out of fear of NATO, but because he perceived NATO as weak and that installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv would be easy.

How Delays in Western Aid Gave Russia the Initiative

ISW Russia Analyst Riley Bailey and Frederick Kagan examine how Russia has exploited the lack of US security aid to seize the theater-wide intiative in Ukraine.

Defeating Russia’s Kharkiv Operation Requires Eliminating Russia’s Sanctuary

Current US policy bans Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in Russia, severely hindering Ukraine's defense against Russia's renewed invasion in Kharkiv Oblast.

Closing the Skies, Liberating Ukraine

ISW Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova's testimony before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe from May 16, 2024.

From Coercion to Capitulation, How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War

By Dan Blumenthal, Frederick W. Kagan, Jonathan Baumel, Cindy Chen, Francis de Beixedon, Logan Rank, and Alexis Turek

Latest from ISW

Iran Update, July 7, 2024

Jul 7, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas is continuing to resist Israeli and US efforts to create a phased ceasefire deal that would secure the release of Israeli hostages, end the war, and begin major reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip. The remaining gap in ceasefire negotiations is significant because agreeing to the most recent Hamas language would effectively commit Israel to the permanent ceasefire Hamas has been demanding before Hamas released all remaining hostages. Hamas’ current demands could also enable Hamas to drag on negotiations indefinitely with no mechanism to compel it to release the remaining hostages.

Iran Update, July 6, 2024

Jul 6, 2024 - ISW Press

Moderate politician Masoud Pezeshkian won the Iranian presidential runoff election on July 5. Iranian media reported that Pezeshkian received over 16 million votes, while his opponent, ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili, received approximately 13.5 million votes. Pezeshkian and Jalili won approximately 10.4 million and 9.5 million votes respectively in the first round of voting on June 28. Pezeshkian will be inaugurated on an unspecified date between July 22 to August 5. Pezeshkian’s presidency will mark a departure from hardline President Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency.  Pezeshkian has repeatedly criticized Raisi’s presidency in recent weeks.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 6, 2024

Jul 6, 2024 - ISW Press

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to posture himself as a potential mediator to end the war in Ukraine despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's rejection of mediation or serious negotiations. Orban is likely aiming to shift Western focus towards possible peace negotiations as part of his overarching effort to undermine European support for Ukraine.