6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin

It's been a busy few days for politics in the Midwest. Last Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on the Democratic ticket, the fourth time in the last 60 years that a Minnesotan will be the Democratic vice presidential nominee. And this week, Minnesota and Wisconsin will hold primaries for federal and state legislative offices, dominating the slate of primaries happening on Aug. 13 (Connecticut and Vermont also have primaries but don't have any major contests).

Paul Bunyan's Axe won't be on the menu, but six high-profile primaries for U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin feature yet another progressive incumbent whose views on Israel have helped spark a primary challenge, intraparty conflicts between establishment-inclined and insurgent-minded Republicans and a smattering of controversy as a cherry on top.

Minnesota

Races to watch: U.S. Senate; 2nd, 5th and 7th congressional districts
Polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern

In the day's most-watched race, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar faces a primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels in the solidly blue 5th District. Omar fended off Samuels by just 2 percentage points in 2022, and the rematch is also part of a larger intraparty conflict over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. As a member of The Squad, an informal group of progressive House Democrats, Omar has been a prominent critic of Israel's policies. Such views have already played a role in the primary defeats of two Squad members in 2024: Pro-Israel groups, particularly United Democracy Project — a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — spent heavily to oust New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman in June and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush last week.

However, Omar holds a stronger position than she did in 2022. For one thing, she's built up a much larger monetary edge by raising $6.8 million as of July 24 — almost three times as much as she'd raised in 2022 — which is far more than the $1.4 million Samuels has brought in. Samuels has also received almost no outside spending support, whereas a group partially funded by AIPAC's super PAC spent $625,000 to back him in 2022. By comparison, Omar has received about $517,000 in outside support, according to OpenSecrets. Additionally, AIPAC and other major pro-Israel groups haven't endorsed Samuels or served as conduits for individual contributors to donate to his campaign, as they did for the two challengers who defeated Bowman and Bush.

Omar has used her financial advantage to full effect, outspending Samuels nearly six-to-one, compared with around two-to-one last time. Whereas she didn't run any TV ads in 2022, Omar is taking Samuels much more seriously this time by spending $2.6 million on spots to just $32,000 by Samuels, according to AdImpact. The little polling we've seen also points to an Omar primary win: The only recent survey was a poll conducted on behalf of Omar's campaign in late July by Lake Research Partners that found her ahead of Samuels 60 percent to 33 percent. Still, Samuels did get a late surge in contributions to his campaign, a reminder of why we're keeping an eye on this contest.

In Minnesota's race for Senate, Republicans might go for a more controversial choice as the party's nominee, potentially curtailing their already-meager chances of defeating Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar. At the state party's convention in May, GOP delegates surprisingly endorsed Royce White, a former professional basketball player and onetime Black Lives Matter activist who has transformed into a populist, pro-Trump figure. White has embraced various conspiracy theories while using antisemitic, misogynistic and homophobic language.

Party activists preferred White over former U.S. Navy intelligence officer Joe Fraser, who looked like a potential favorite, but it remains to be seen whom the larger primary electorate will back. Fraser originally planned to "abide" by the party's endorsement — local parlance for a candidate withdrawing if someone else is endorsed — but he decided to run in the primary due to White's controversies and concerns among party leaders about White's ability to compete with Klobuchar. Still, neither candidate has raised much money: White has brought in $133,000 and Fraser just $68,000 — a far cry from Klobuchar's nearly $19.0 million. Moreover, no outside groups have gotten involved in the primary. The only polling we've seen tests potential general election matchups, all of which show Klobuchar well ahead of either Republican.

Minnesota's most competitive House seat is the somewhat blue-leaning 2nd District in the suburbs and exurbs south of Minneapolis-St. Paul, where Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is seeking a fourth term. Now, the GOP nomination contest appeared to be done in mid-July when attorney Tayler Rahm announced he would withdraw to join former President Donald Trump's campaign as a senior adviser. Rahm had won the district endorsement convention in April over former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, a more establishment-aligned candidate, but Teirab continued to campaign rather than abide by the endorsement. Rahm's departure seemed to put the party in a position to avoid a potentially ugly primary, as Teirab has the backing of the Congressional Leadership Fund — the leading super PAC for the House GOP — and had outraised Rahm $1.7 million to $420,000 as of July 24.

Yet bizarrely, this primary isn't over. Although Trump and the National Republican Campaign Committee have backed Teirab, neither the district party nor Rahm have followed suit. In fact, the the Star Tribune reported last week that Rahm may still be running a phantom campaign — his campaign mailers have still arrived in voters' mailboxes — and that local conservatives believe Rahm will actively run in the general if he wins the primary (his name remains on the primary ballot). Since Rahm dropped out, neither the district party nor Rahm have endorsed Teirab, and Rahm's mailers have still arrived in voters' mailboxes. Still, Rahm has raised little since moving to the Trump campaign — his total receipts were in fact negative due to refunded donations — not exactly a sign of a still-active campaign. But were Rahm to win, the GOP would need him to fully engage as a candidate and would have little recourse otherwise — the primary victor will be on the general election ballot barring death, incapacitation or becoming ineligible.

Lastly, we're keeping an eye on the GOP primary in Minnesota's solidly red 7th District in the western part of the state. On paper, Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach looks like a safe bet to win. After all, she's raised nearly $1.6 million, far more than the $182,000 brought in by businessman Steve Boyd. She also has Trump's endorsement. But Boyd tapped into anti-establishment fervor at the district's party endorsement convention in April, where the delegates decided against formally endorsing any candidate — a move Boyd deemed a victory for his upstart campaign. Yet while we're monitoring this contest, Fischbach seems more likely than not to win renomination. After all, polls conducted on behalf of her campaign found her polling around 50 points ahead of Boyd.

Wisconsin

Races to watch: 3rd and 8th congressional districts
Polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern

Earlier in the 2024 cycle, Wisconsin's Senate contest looked like a race that could feature a highly-competitive GOP primary to decide who takes on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. However, the general election matchup is all but set because Republican businessman Eric Hovde has essentially cleared the field, making him a shoo-in to win the nomination. Instead, we have to look down the ballot for races of interest, specifically two House elections. (Wisconsin's redrawn state legislative maps could also provide interesting primary fodder, as could the vote for two constitutional amendment questions with implications for the balance of executive and legislative powers in the state.)

The most competitive House seat in Wisconsin is the 3rd District, slightly Republican-leaning turf in the Driftless Area held by GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden. In the race to face Van Orden, the Democratic primary has become a two-way contest between businesswoman Rebecca Cooke and state Rep. Katrina Shankland. Cooke finished second in the 2022 primary for this seat, while Shankland has represented a blue-leaning area in the north-central part of the district for more than a decade. Cooke has the upper hand in fundraising, having brought in $2.0 million to Shankland's $868,000. But we haven't seen any publicly available surveys measuring the state of this primary race since last year, so it's unclear who has the upper hand.

In the final weeks, the two candidates have traded blows over experience and political positions. Hailing from a dairy farming family, Cooke has cast herself as an outsider with working class values who isn't a career politician — an implicit shot at Shankland. Meanwhile, Shankland has played up her accomplishments as a legislator while arguing that Cooke lacks the legislative know-how to ably represent the district in Congress.

There's some ideological distance between the two candidates, as the moderate Blue Dog PAC has endorsed Cooke while Shankland has more backing from progressive and labor groups. Outside groups known for supporting moderate Democrats or opposing progressive ones have spent $357,000 to boost Cooke and attack Shankland, while the progressive group Leaders We Deserve has spent $194,000 to help Shankland. Controversy has particularly arisen over an ad run by New Democratic Majority, an anti-Shankland group, which contends that the legislator blocked an expansion of state health care benefits — an attack Cooke has also deployed. Meanwhile, Shankland's camp has hit back by pointing to Cooke's previous work as a political fundraiser, which belies her outsider credentials.

Wisconsin's only open-seat race is in the comfortably Republican-leaning 8th District in the northeastern part of the state. Establishment-aligned GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher surprisingly announced in February that he wouldn't seek reelection and then later resigned in late April. A three-way Republican primary to succeed Gallagher has developed, involving businessman Tony Wied, former state Sen. Roger Roth and state Sen. André Jacque. Wied has led the way in fundraising with $859,000, but he's self-funded more than half of that. By contrast, Roth has brought in $728,000 without dipping into his own pocket, while Jacque has trailed behind with $244,000. Roth has some history here, having finished second in the 2010 primary for this seat while also being the nephew of former Republican Rep. Toby Roth, who held a previous version of this district for many years.

The candidates have all portrayed themselves as conservative fighters closely aligned with Trump. Helpfully for Wied, Trump endorsed him in April, and Wied has run ads featuring the former president speaking straight to the camera, in which he praises Wied as an "America First warrior" while knocking Roth as a "RINO" who is "no friend of MAGA." But Roth has also tried to link himself to Trump, calling himself a "Trump conservative" who'll fight to help Trump finish a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. An outside group, Speak Free or Die PAC, has spent $1.0 million to help Roth or attack his opponents, with much of that spending going to ads criticizing Wied as a "slick" oil and gas executive who supposedly tried to raise gas prices for his own benefit. For his part, Jacque has played up his anti-establishment credentials and was the only candidate at a July debate who agreed with Trump's claims that the 2020 election had been "stolen."