Robert Renfro PhD

Purpose: This paper analyzes the North Korean sanctions problem from a quantitative approach and makes objective conclusions based solely upon empirical research.

Design, Methodology, Approach: In this article, the author uses Hierarchical Clustering to examine the balance of trade between North Korea and its trading partners as well as these partners’ partners.

Findings: North Korea is isolated economically. This is a result of both sanctions and North Korea’s own… عرض المزيد

Purpose: This paper analyzes the North Korean sanctions problem from a quantitative approach and makes objective conclusions based solely upon empirical research.

Design, Methodology, Approach: In this article, the author uses Hierarchical Clustering to examine the balance of trade between North Korea and its trading partners as well as these partners’ partners.

Findings: North Korea is isolated economically. This is a result of both sanctions and North Korea’s own isolationist policies. China is by far North Korea’s largest trading partner for both imports and exports; however, economic coercion to meter China’s trade will impact its other trade partners. First among these othervtrade partners is the United States. Congo is the route for trilateral trade with North Korea. Trilateral trade mayv circumvent sanctions even by signatories to such economic regimes. South Korea is safely nestled economically with the United States, China, and Germany protecting its economy from sanctions on North Korea.

Practical Implications: North Korea’s own isolationist policies and long history of sanctions make expanding sanctions upon them by the Western World irrelevant except perhaps in terms of domestic political gains.

Originality, Value: This is a non-traditional application of Hierarchical Clustering to macroeconomics which overcomes the analytical challenges of scale between large and small countries and asymmetric relationships.

Key Words: North Korea, Sanctions, Economics, Trade, Hierarchical Clustering
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The interconnectedness of global trade influences international relations. The complexities of this
interconnectedness may be better understood through quantitative analysis of the balance of trade within the global economic system. Economics is an instrument of national power affecting international
relations. Transnational trade relationships offer both risk and opportunity in the pursuit of national
objectives. Globalization has increased the interconnectedness of national economies… عرض المزيد

The interconnectedness of global trade influences international relations. The complexities of this
interconnectedness may be better understood through quantitative analysis of the balance of trade within the global economic system. Economics is an instrument of national power affecting international
relations. Transnational trade relationships offer both risk and opportunity in the pursuit of national
objectives. Globalization has increased the interconnectedness of national economies around the world.
This interconnectedness potentially enables international coalition building based upon common
economic interest. Likewise, such interconnectedness potentially deters, moderates, and constrains
nations from actions, which would negatively affect their economy. Analysis of such relationships
presents decision makers both risk and opportunities in terms of international support, influence and the potential success of economic coercion.
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Influence campaigns seek to achieve political objectives through conveyance of information that affects behaviour. Further developing connections between Social Science's interpersonal influence theory and Operations Research's (OR) network flow formulation, the resulting methodology explores courses of action seeking to influence an inaccessible target audience using their indigenous social network as a conduit. A notional clandestine organisation using the Generalized Network Flow (GNF)… عرض المزيد

Influence campaigns seek to achieve political objectives through conveyance of information that affects behaviour. Further developing connections between Social Science's interpersonal influence theory and Operations Research's (OR) network flow formulation, the resulting methodology explores courses of action seeking to influence an inaccessible target audience using their indigenous social network as a conduit. A notional clandestine organisation using the Generalized Network Flow (GNF) problem is analysed. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the sponsors, the US Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the US government. عرض أقل

Social networks describe the complex interrelations, both formal and informal, between individuals and groups. Modeling and analysis of social networks has many practical applications across an array of domains. These include government and military applications. An example is considered in detail for the Iranian government decision making process where relevant individuals and groups, their interactions, and their role in the decision-making process are explicitly modeled. This analysis… عرض المزيد

Social networks describe the complex interrelations, both formal and informal, between individuals and groups. Modeling and analysis of social networks has many practical applications across an array of domains. These include government and military applications. An example is considered in detail for the Iranian government decision making process where relevant individuals and groups, their interactions, and their role in the decision-making process are explicitly modeled. This analysis illustrates a flow model representation of social networks. Flow modeling is a robust and powerful tool for social network analysis.Mapping social network analysis to a flow model representation resolves many of the problems found in existing Social Network Analysis techniques.
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