Get ready for a monumental iPhone 16 super cycle, says Wedbush
William GallagherRenders of the forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro
Investment firm Wedbush now expects what it calls a massive upgrade cycle for the forthcoming iPhone 16 range, and even an end to Apple's problems in China.
Wedbush has been bullish about Apple since WWDC. In particular, the firm is excited about Apple's chance to grow iPhone sales.
Its analysts are going further in their expectations for Apple's growth, however. Citing their own supply chain checks in Asia, Wedbush is saying that demand for the iPhone 16 looks likely to be "monumental" and "a massive upgrade cycle."
Based also on better than expected figures in March 2024, Wedbush says that it believes China has seen its last negative growth quarter for the iPhone. It expects that there will be a growth turnaround in the September quarter, when the new iPhones are launched.
Wedbush also continues to argue that Apple has made itself the consumer gatekeeper of AI features. With its implementation of Apple Intelligence, and in particular its 2.2 billion active devices worldwide, Wedbush says other AI firms will need to integrate with Apple.
That would entail AI developers following the same integration model that Apple has announced with OpenAI's ChatGPT. Wedbush thinks that other firms joining in this way will make for a "multi-pronged AI revenue stream," that will add growth of $10 billion for Apple annually.
The company also says that it believes AI being integrated into Apple's ecosystem should add $30-$40 to the share price. That's because it will bring unspecified monetization opportunities, and drive up both Apple Services and hardware sales.
Separately, Apple has been candid about discussing with Google to integrate its Google Gemini feature. It has reportedly rejected a potential integration of Facebook owner Meta's AI software.
In May 2024, Wedbush raised its Apple target price to $275. It is now retaining that figure.
Christine McKee
Charles Martin
Malcolm Owen
3 Comments
I'm sure the launch of AI will create a super cycle in the English speaking US market responsible for probably 1/3 of all revenue. The remaining 2/3 of customers won't benefit from this. Some might delay a decision while others could decide to skip iPhone 16 due to a lack of features available to them. With iOS 18 supporting the same devices as iOS 17 there is no rush for upgrading outside EN-US.
IMO people will use any excuse to upgrade their iPhone. AI is the ultimate excuse. I agree with Wedbush that a monumental upgrade cycle is on its way.
On one hand I will be upgrading to a 16. Not because of any AI, or anything like that, but because my iPhone 11 is getting to be rather long in the tooth and it’s time.
BUT
As far as this particular report, it’s July. It’s time for the ‘pump’ part of analysts reports. We get reports that ‘this year will be a supercycle’, backed up by supply chain leaks every July and August.