Thrilled to share that the BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook 2024 is out today!
Our updated global base case, the Economic Transition Scenario, now sees renewables making up 70% of electricity generation by 2050, alongside significant uptake of EVs and a major shift towards more flexibility in the power system. This puts the world on track for 2.6 degrees of global warming - far better than a world with no further energy transition, but far short of international climate commitments.
The Net Zero Scenario, which is consistent with global warming of 1.75 degrees, requires an immediate peak and decline in emissions from all sectors starting today, and a simultaneous peak and reduction in use of each fossil fuel - coal, oil and gas. To get on track for this trajectory, renewable energy must be tripled by 2030, EVs must reach 100% of sales by 2034, and a huge increase in carbon capture and storage is needed in this decade.
Clearly, time is running out to stay within the global heating limits set by the Paris Agreement.
Our global modeling includes detailed country-level analysis for 12 countries covering two-thirds of energy sector emissions. Our team found that only 18% of global emissions are covered by NDCs that are as ambitious as the Net Zero Scenario for their respective countries; 14% are as ambitious as the base case Economic Transition Scenario, and 34% even fall short of the base case. This indicates significant headroom for increased ambition in the run-up to COP30.
The report also quantifies the scale-up needed in nine key technology pillars to achieve net zero: renewables, EVs, storage, grids, nuclear, CCS, hydrogen, SAFs and heat pumps. All nine pillars must succeed if we are to get to net zero - if one falters, another will need to take up the slack.
Strikingly, energy-related investment in the Net Zero Scenario is only 19% higher than the base case, and yet the two pathways are fundamentally different choices. This highlights the need for stable, long-term policy to rewire investment flows into clean energy projects, even where there is a cost premium.
Finally, I'd like to highlight the new land-use analysis our team has prepared for this year's report, which shows how three-way competition for land needed for food production, biodiversity protection and energy transition will be a key issue to be managed in the decades to come.
Bloomberg/BNEF clients will find the full report and data set on our portal. All others can see the summary here: https://lnkd.in/gxvPtjP
Most importantly: many congratulations to David Hostert, Matthias K., Ian Berryman, Amar Vasdev, Rodrigo Quintero, Seohee Song, Andrew Turner and Konstantinos Filippos Pegios, and a wider team of dozens of BNEF analysts who helped bring this important piece of work to life.
