Kpler

Is it time for the market to reevaluate its geopolitical risk premium? Despite strong summer demand, #oil prices are bearish due to weak economic data from China, Europe, and the US. However, rising tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Libya could change the market dynamic. Libya's potential supply disruption, removing nearly 1 Mbd, has already pushed Brent above $80/bbl. If the shutdown is enforced, prices could rise further, boosting light sweet crude differentials and tightening the WTI-Brent spread, with US exporters potentially benefiting even as Europe’s demand peaks for the year. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/dG8sA4Gg #kpler

Kpler VP Power Emeric de Vigan will be speaking at the upcoming London Winter Symposium hosted by Atmospheric G2. After a few years off, this highly regarded event is making its return on 24 October, and we are pleased to be part of it. Emeric will be sharing his specialist market insights alongside Todd Crawford's European Winter Seasonal Forecast. Registration is now OPEN, but space is LIMITED. Don't miss out—secure your spot today: https://lnkd.in/eNV7DXqZ

Kpler Identifies Third Vessel at Arctic LNG 2 Train 1 Using radar satellite imagery, Kpler has identified a third vessel moored at Arctic LNG 2’s Train 1 as of August 25. We believe this vessel to be the newly sanctioned Everest Energy, which spoofed its position during the port call, falsely reporting to be 1,300 km west of the installation where it was actually located. This follows previous loadings aboard Pioneer and Asya Energy. As highlighted in our recent Kpler Insight webinar on Arctic LNG 2, Everest Energy was clearly identified as the next loading candidate. Current positioning shows the vessel is in the Gulf of Ob. We continue to closely monitor vessel positions using a combination of #AIS, satellite, and radar imagery. With Train 1 operating at 50% capacity, Arctic #LNG 2 is currently limited to a maximum of four loadings per month. Stay tuned for more updates. #kpler

LNG carrier Pioneer (9256602), which loaded cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, recently met with New Energy (9324277) just north of the Suez Canal to perform a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer. While STS transfers at sea are uncommon and more complex for #LNG, they are often observed with Russian crude oil tankers. Pioneer travelled past Norway into southern Europe and circled near Egypt’s Port Said before manipulating its AIS transponder on August 22. New Energy arrived from the south via the Suez Canal but has been off the AIS range since August 26 - and it doesn’t appear on satellite imagery along its reported trajectory. Kpler data science team has identified and located both vessels performing an STS operation, as shown in the image below. While Pioneer was included in the U.S. State Department’s sanctions on August 23, New Energy remains unsanctioned but is likely to attract U.S. authorities' attention. Kpler tracks such events extensively as part of our dedicated risk and compliance services. #kpler

Kpler Head of Oil Analysis Viktor Katona notes that the engine failure of the Sredina this morning could affect Libya’s fuel supply. "In addition to clogging a crucial waterway, the immediate impact will likely be on Libya's fuel consumption," Katona commented on the incident involving the 22-year-old Panama-flagged tanker, which caused delays through the Bosphorus Strait. The Sredina is owned by Srediste Shipping LLC, a UAE-headquartered shipping company that also owns the Magni Alexa product tanker. Both have been carrying exclusively Russian origin goods in 2024 to date.

China's coal imports limited by record hydro output and higher domestic production China's #thermal power output declined for the third consecutive month in July, driven by record hydropower output. Meanwhile, #coal production in key regions such as Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia continues to trend upward. With hydropower output expected to stay elevated until winter, #China's coal import potential is likely to remain limited. #kpler

Laden LNG tanker approaches Plaquemines LNG ahead of its start-up The Qogir #LNG carrier, with a capacity of 174,000 m³ and loaded with cargo from Norway’s Snohvit, was seen approaching the Plaquemines LNG terminal in Louisiana. Venture Global has received approval from FERC to import up to three LNG cargoes for the purpose of cooling down the terminal facilities in preparation for cryogenic operations. Any unused LNG from this process will be re-exported. These LNG imports are a crucial step in commissioning the facility, which is on track for completion this autumn. As of last week, the project is 80% complete. Stay ahead of the market. Learn more about Kpler Insight here: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #kpler #lngmarket

Navigating the future of energy markets Join Us at the APAC Insight Forum 2024 in Singapore next month Change is a constant in energy markets, and staying ahead of the curve is crucial. The Kpler APAC Insight Forum 2024 in Singapore will bring together industry experts to discuss how recent developments—from geopolitical shifts to economic uncertainties—are shaping the future of commodity markets. This is your opportunity to gain critical insights on the trends that will define the next year and beyond. Date & Timing: September 9, from 8.45am to 1.00pm Venue: Andaz Hotel, 5 Fraser St, 189354 Singapore, SGP Don't miss out. Register now: https://lnkd.in/dNq-Gm5s. #kpler

2025 term-supply negotiations in Asia may tilt in favour of buyers As 2025 term-contract negotiations approach, Asian buyers, particularly China, are likely to have the upper hand with Middle Eastern oil producers. The era of high refining margins is over, and demand is softening, especially as China’s economic momentum slows. China’s seaborne crude imports have hit a 18-months low, with sluggish refinery margins and reduced operational rates leading to lower feedstocks demand, even for Iranian and Venezuelan crude. As the Yulong refinery ramps up, it could worsen oversupply in the region. Amid weak spot prices, Asian refiners may prefer smaller contracts for greater spot market flexibility, signalling a shift in global oil trade dynamics. #kpler

Join Kpler at #Coaltrans Asia Visit us at Stand 30 from 8-10 September 2024. As the world’s top thermal coal exporter and a key supplier of critical minerals, Indonesia is a central player in shifting energy markets and a major driver of dry bulk shipping demand. Our team will showcase how integrated trade intelligence and analysis from Kpler empowers our customers to stay ahead in changing global markets. Book a meeting with our team: https://lnkd.in/dviiCuVd #Coaltrans #SupplyChain #CoalTrade #Kpler