Landing Spots for Donovan Mitchell If Cavs Trade Star Guard During NBA Offseason

Eric Pincus@@EricPincusX.com LogoFeatured Columnist IApril 5, 2024

Landing Spots for Donovan Mitchell If Cavs Trade Star Guard During NBA Offseason

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    NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 1: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers smiles during the game against the New York Knicks on November 1, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE  (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
    Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

    If it were up to the Cleveland Cavaliers, trading All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell this offseason would be a non-starter. Even if Mitchell requests a trade, Cleveland has no obligation to say yes since he's under contract for $35.4 million in 2024-25.

    However, Mitchell is all but certain to decline his $37.1 million player option for the 2025-26 season to explore unrestricted free agency next July. Mitchell could accept a maximum extension before then—one which multiple sources have indicated the Cavaliers would happily pay. But if he doesn't, what then?

    The buzz in NBA circles suggests that barring a run to the NBA Finals, Mitchell will decline an extension and look elsewhere, and the Cavaliers are more likely than not to move him well before he can leave outright as a free agent.

    Cleveland gave up three first-round picks, two first-round swaps, a future All-Star in Lauri Markkanen, the just-drafted Ochai Agbaji and Collin Sexton for Mitchell. The Cavs can't let that turn into two or three brief playoff runs, followed by Mitchell walking in free agency for nothing in return.

    For now, the franchise should focus entirely on winning. If the Cavs go on a deep playoff run and they can convince Mitchell to sign an extension, then all of the speculation about his future will be much ado about nothing.

    But if Cleveland's season ends before June, the next set of decisions will come fast and furious. Stars are typically moved in the offseason, when teams are flush with cap and roster flexibility and plenty of draft picks.

    Here, we've highlighted five potential landing spots for Mitchell this offseason if he and the Cavs do decide to part ways. All five can offer Mitchell a chance at remaining in contention and have enough draft picks and/or players to entice Cleveland.

Lakers Add Mitchell to LeBron/AD

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    LeBron James
    LeBron JamesCole Burston/Getty Images

    The Los Angeles Lakers could have a big free-agent question of their own if LeBron James declines his $51.4 million player option for the 2024-25 season. But if James continues his career in L.A. with Anthony Davis, the Lakers reportedly plan to go hunting for a third star this summer, according to Jovan Buha of The Athletic.

    Any team that trades for Mitchell would need assurances that he'll sign an extension after the mandatory six-month waiting period or re-sign as a free agent in 2025. Given the Lakers' market and James' age, the franchise would probably feel confident about selling a Mitchell/Davis long-term pairing.

    The Lakers are hard-capped the first apron ($172.3 million) through the rest of this league year, so any Mitchell trade must wait until July. The New Orleans Pelicans have the right to take either the Lakers' 2024 or 2025 first-round pick, but the Lakers can trade the other one. They can also offer two additional first-rounders (2029 and 2021) and up to five second-rounders after this year's draft.

    In terms of outgoing players, the Lakers can reach Mitchell's salary with D'Angelo Russell (if he picks up his $18.7 million player option) and Rui Hachimura. Other combinations could include players like Austin Reaves, Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt, along with lower-paid players like Jalen Hood-Schifino, Maxwell Lewis, Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayesand Cam Reddish. To be dealt, the last three would have to pick up their respective player options.

    The Lakers must send at least $35.4 million in outgoing salary to avoid a 2024-25 hard cap at the first apron (projected to be $178.7 million). That outgoing amount can dip to $28.1 million if they're willing to be hard-capped, but that might be impractical if James returns in the $50 million range.

    The NBA's new collective bargaining also generally eliminated teams' ability to throw in more than one minimum contract for salary-matching purposes during the offseason. For example, the Lakers can only send one of Lewis, Wood, Hayes or Reddish to reach the $28.1 million or $35.4 million outgoing salary to take back Mitchell.

Heat Trio of Jimmy, Bam and Spida

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    Jimmy Butler
    Jimmy ButlerMegan Briggs/Getty Images

    While Mitchell has no formal means to block a trade, any franchise willing to go against his wishes faces the same dilemma as the Cavaliers. Damian Lillard may not have had Milwaukee on his original list of trade destinations, but the Bucks were guaranteed to get three years out of him since he's under contract through at least 2025-26. Mitchell has only one more year left on his current deal.

    The Heat are a generally attractive destination. Miami has beautiful weather, no state income tax, a long-tenured front office and one of the league's top head coaches in Erik Spoelstra. Mitchell is also said to have a strong relationship with Heat All-Star Bam Adebayo.

    Miami is not especially overflowing with picks. But it could trade its 2024 first-rounder (after the draft) along with its 2029 and 2031 first-round picks and up to four second-rounders.

    The Heat must send one or two of Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson in any deal for Mitchell. Cleveland would undoubtedly covet rookie wing Jamie Jaquez Jr. as well.

    Assuming Jimmy Butler and Adebayo aren't moving in a Mitchell deal, other salary-matching possibilities include Nikola Jović, Caleb Martin, Orlando Robinson (minimum), Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant (minimum) and Josh Richardson (minimum). The last four have player options that they'd have to pick up to be included in any trade.

Can Houston Lure Mitchell?

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    Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks
    Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet and Dillon BrooksMelissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images

    The Houston Rockets are a slightly out-of-left-field contender for Mitchell. But this past summer, they made a significant pivot to try to compete, signing or trading for veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. In recent weeks, the Rockets have been one of the hottest teams in the league.

    This offseason, the Rockets need to decide on whether to sign Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün to rookie-scale extensions. If they don't, they'll become restricted free agents in July 2025. Could Houston use one of those two to convince Mitchell to head southwest?

    The Rockets have the Brooklyn Nets' fully unprotected first-round picks in 2024 and 2026, swap rights with the Nets in 2025 and 2027, and all of their own first-rounders from 202 through 2031. Houston doesn't have many second-rounders to offer (up to four), but it has plenty of first-round capital to dangle.

    If the Rockets keep Jabari Smith Jr., VanVleet and Brooks, they may need to build a deal around Green, who's arguably the best young player featured here. Other young players could include Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason or even Şengün, although he seems to be a keeper in Houston. The Rockets could include veterans Steven Adams, Jeff Green (team option), Jock Landale (nonguaranteed) and Jae'Sean Tate (team option) for salary-matching purposes.

    The Rockets have plenty of ready-to-play young talent and a substantial assortment of picks. That should make them an appealing trade partner for Cleveland or any other team that's willing to hear offers on a star player.

Brunson/Mitchell Backcourt in New York?

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    Jalen Brunson
    Jalen BrunsonMegan Briggs/Getty Images

    Mitchell grew up in New York. His father is a longtime executive with the New York Mets. He's represented by CAA Sports, an agency with strong ties to the New York Knicks. Team president Leon Rose was formerly a CAA agent.

    Some in NBA circles believe Mitchell wanted the Utah Jazz to trade him to the Knicks, and that the Cavaliers are merely a temporary layover. It's unclear whether that's truly the case, but the Knicks can make a viable offer to Cleveland either way.

    The Knicks have all of their own first-round picks, along with future first-rounders from the Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons (heavily protected), Washington Wizards (protected) and Milwaukee Bucks (lightly protected). They also could have as many as nine second-round picks through 2031. The Stepien Rule limits how many of their first-rounders they can offer, but they're flush with draft capital regardless.

    If the Knicks re-sign OG Anunoby and keep Jalen Brunson, a trade for Mitchell would probably be built around players like Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and/or Bojan Bogdanović (who has only $2 million of his $19 million salary guaranteed). They could also include Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, Miles McBride, Jericho Sims (minimum), Mamadi Diakite (minimum), DaQuan Jeffries (minimum, team option) for salary-matching purposes.

    The Knicks may need to find a third team to swing a deal for Mitchell, assuming the Cavaliers are committed to their current frontcourt of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Cleveland would have little use for Randle, who would be the main salary heading out of New York.

Bridges and Mitchell Together in Brooklyn

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    Mikal Bridges
    Mikal BridgesStephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

    The Knicks aren't the only NBA team in New York. The Brooklyn Nets are also a viable Mitchell destination. General manager Sean Marks has strong CAA ties as well, and Mikal Bridges is said to have a strong relationship with Mitchell.

    The Knicks, Lakers, Heat and Rockets were more competitive than the Nets this year, but All-Stars tend to believe that they will turn a team into a winner wherever they go. The Nets have some solid building blocks with Cam Johnson, Cam Thomas and Nicolas Claxton (free agent) along with Bridges.

    The Nets still owe multiple first-round picks to the Rockets from the James Harden trade, but they restocked their coffers by sending Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers, Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns and Kyrie Irving to the Dallas Mavericks. They now project to have two first-rounders in 2025, two in 2027, three in 2029 and one apiece in 2028 (TBD by protections), 2030 and 2031. Brooklyn also projects to have 10 second-rounders through 2031.

    Ben Simmons' expiring $40.3 million contract could have some salary-matching value, perhaps with someone like Georges Niang also joining the Nets. Assuming Bridges isn't available, other medium/higher-salaried players include Dorian Finney-Smith, Dennis Schröder and Johnson. The Nets have several younger players like Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead, Day'Ron Sharpe, Jalen Wilson (minimum) and Thomas. Finally, Keita Bates-Diop has a player option for a minimum salary ($2.6 million).

Honorable Mentions

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    PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 02: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles during the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Wells Fargo Center on April 02, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
    Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

    Since Mitchell has only one year left on his deal, he's likely to dictate his list of preferred trade destinations should he and the Cavaliers agree to part ways this offseason. The Cavs may be forced to choose from the best of those options, lest they lose him for nothing in a year.

    Other suitors could enter the fray, including the Philadelphia 76ers, who project to have significant cap room this summer. The Sixers don't have a ton of picks to offer, but they can also take Mitchell's contract off Cleveland's books without sending much salary (if any) back. A significant trade exception and financial flexibility, with some pick considerations—or perhaps a multi-team trade—could make some sense for Cleveland.

    Could the San Antonio Spurs, who have already been linked to Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks, turn to the Cavaliers with all of their future picks? Might the Hawks go after Mitchell and send Young to a third team? The Oklahoma City Thunder have more draft picks to offer than any other team and could thus outbid anyone, too.

    The first step is sussing out Mitchell's intentions one way or another. After this season ends, the Cavaliers need to figure out whether he's willing to stay in Cleveland beyond 2024-25. If not, they may need to work with a trade partner who feels secure enough about Mitchell's future to make a deal worthwhile.

    Email Eric Pincus at [email protected] and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.

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