MLB trade deadline candidates — Arms

Don’t expect the fever dream that was last year’s deadline (Aug. 2), but there are still some impact pitchers who could be on the move.

Last year, the MLB trade deadline was a flurry of knockout punches hitting teams over and over. Big names were flying off the shelves left and right. Teams were solidifying their roles as contenders before our very eyes. It felt like big trades were happening every 15 minutes. By the time the deadline finally hit, baseball fans needed to take a break, maybe smoke a cigar, because the deadline was fast, epic, heartbreaking, and riveting all in one.

That won’t happen this year. Here’s a look at the starters and relievers that could/should be on the move.

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The starting pitching market is pretty thin this year. There’s no Max Scherzer tracker that everyone needs to keep their eye on. That said, the best pitcher available this year is Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo. Castillo may have missed some time this year due to injury, but after a few weeks of reduced velocity, Castillo has built himself back up to the tune of a 166 ERA-plus, the best of his career.

Castillo has done all this despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in America. That success makes him an ideal target for the New York Yankees, who have seen Nestor Cortes start coming back down to Earth, Gerrit Cole experience inconsistency, and Luis Severino return to the IL for the 50th time this month.

The Toronto Blue Jays are another team that could make a run at Castillo. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Berríos have all struggled mightily this season. Castillo would provide a spark to a rotation that has been pretty mediocre whenever Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, or Ross Stripling isn’t pitching. The Twins and Cardinals could be in the running as well, but no team in dire need of pitching can put together the same offer that the Yankees can. Perhaps the prospect of having to cut his hair will steer Castillo away from the pinstripes, but if not, the Yankees should be the favorite to land him.

Best Fits: Yankees, Blue Jays, Twins, Giants, Cardinals

Prediction: Castillo cuts his hair and heads to the Bronx

While Montas has dealt with inflammation in his elbow this year, he is scheduled to start for the Athletics tonight. Montas was a hot topic last spring while teams were scrambling to get their rosters together after the lockout ended. The Twins were heavily linked to Montas then, and they’re still linked to him now. Montas, who is under team control until 2023, certainly isn’t the same talent that Castillo is, but the Twins are looking for more stability in their rotation, and as long as Oakland’s price isn’t that high, I can’t imagine a world where the Twins don’t attempt to bolster their rotation with Montas. Knowing Oakland, some team can probably grab him for $6, some warm gummy bears, and a copy of Paddington 2 on Blu-Ray.

Best Fits: Yankees, Twins, Blue Jays, Giants, Cardinals, Braves

Prediction: The Twins land another steady arm to lock down the AL Central

An unlikely All-Star, Blackburn could turn his success into massive profit for the A’s if the team plays their cards right. That said, don’t look at that All-Star tag and assume the A’s are going to get some solid prospects. 2022 is Blackburn’s first year as a full-time starter, and while he’s been solid, he’s still unproven. The team that theoretically trades for Blackburn would be taking a massive risk hoping that Blackburn can remain a high-end starter.

Because of that risk, it’s unlikely the A’s receive an offer that they consider worthy of Blackburn’s talents. While Blackburn is up for arbitration after the season, there is also a chance that the A’s extend him. A multi-year deal would elevate Blackburn’s trade value to a whole new level. There is a chance that he gets traded in the upcoming weeks, but only for something absurdly in the A’s favor. I find it much more likely that Blackburn gets traded during the offseason after he’s agreed to a new deal. Sure, he might be more expensive, but it’s better than taking a risk on a rental.

Best Fits: Blue Jays, Giants, Phillies, Cardinals

Prediction: Blackburn stays in Oakland

Syndergaard has done surprisingly well for his first season since 2019. He hasn’t been spectacular, posting a 4.00 ERA and 5.00 since May 16, however, the development of his sinker has turned him into a reliable option in the middle of the Angels rotation. That’s what any team looking to trade for Syndergaard should expect — a middle-of-the-rotation guy with upside. Any team looking for an ace will be sorely disappointed, but a team looking for stability will be pleasantly surprised.

Syndergaard’s skill set would fit best with a team known for making the most out of their pitching staff, and that makes me think of the Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, and Giants. Each of those teams would do well with Syndergaard as their number 3 or 4, but the Cardinals are arguably the most desperate for the stability that Syndergaard would bring, seeing as they have just three pitchers with more than 10 games started this year.

Best Fits: Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Giants

Prediction: Syndergaard lands in St. Louis

The best lefty on this year’s market is none other than... Martín Pérez? Who could’ve seen that coming? That makes him a prime candidate to draw a lot of attention. However, I’m not sold on the Rangers giving up on their current roster. They didn’t shell out oodles and oodles of cash for Marcus Semien and Corey Seager just to be sellers at the trade deadline this year. There have been talks of an extension coming between Pérez and the Rangers. Rumor has it, there’s even mutual interest in that deal.

Even at 31 years old, Pérez is throwing harder than he ever has before, and that uptick in velocity is making the Rangers salivate at the thought of putting him in a rotation surrounded by one or two other high-end talents. Pérez won’t make the Rangers’ rotation great on his own, but he’s a good first step, especially if the Rangers can land him at a cheap price.

Best Fits: Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Giants

Prediction: Pérez remains deep in the heart of Texas

Quintana isn’t the must-have talent he was in Chicago, but a 106 ERA-plus is nothing to scoff at. Normally, teams wouldn’t be pressed to grab someone as old and mediocre as Quintana, especially considering he’s on just a one-year deal. That said, the lack of a market for left-handed starters this year makes Quintana and his 3.32 FIP all the more desirable.

The Blue Jays do have two southpaw starters on their roster, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but both are on the IL. If the Blue Jays want to continue competing for a wild card spot, they’re going to need to insert a lefty into the middle of their rotation. Quintana is likely the best available after Pérez, but Quintana will come at a much cheaper price. He’ll also provide a veteran presence and durability down the stretch.

Best Fits: Yankees, Twins, Blue Jays, Giants, Cardinals, Braves

Prediction: Quintana gets his passport ready as he heads north of the border

At 37 years old, David Robertson has emerged as a legitimate closer option this year. It’s shocking that he didn’t earn an All-Star bid given his 220 ERA-plus and 13 saves this season. While every team could use a great reliever on their squad, there is one team in dire need of a closer currently in a position to make the playoffs.

The Minnesota Twins don’t have anyone they can reliably call upon to close out a close game. They have six guys on their team with at least one save this year, and the Twins have the fewest saves of any division leader in MLB... by six. That’s a wide margin. The Twins should be scrambling to put together a deal for Robertson. They could opt for one of the other closer options like Bednar, but Bednar would likely come at a higher price and the Twins don’t have the farm system to make that deal happen.

Best Fits: Twins, Phillies, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers

Prediction: Robertson moves to Minnesota

Once a promising young starter, Fulmer’s career has been plagued with injuries and inconsistency, pushing him to the bullpen, where he’s been... pretty damn good. Since the start of last year, Fulmer has amassed a 2.78 ERA in 103.2 innings pitched. However, unlike Robertson, Fulmer would be best served for a team looking for a late-inning reliever/setup man to fit into their bullpen. That makes me think of the Mets right off the bat.

Edwin Díaz is the team’s closer, certainly, but Seth Lugo isn’t the shutdown setup man they were hoping he would be. He’s allowed multiple runs in three of his past 13 appearances, and his 8.7 K per 9 innings rate is his lowest since 2017. All in all, Lugo isn’t a terrible option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets opt for a better option. The Mets are the same team that originally drafted Fulmer in 2011. A reunion isn’t out of the question.

Best Fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox

Prediction: Fulmer reunites with the Mets

While Bednar might not have the same base stats as Robertson, Bednar is younger, throws harder, and has better control. All that said, the price for Bednar will likely be much higher than Robertson, making him much more likely to fall in the hands of a team rich in prospects. The Dodgers need a closer given how pathetic Craig Kimbrel has been this year. Plus, bolstering the bullpen should be a key for the team while Brusdar Graterol is on the IL.

However, I think the Dodgers are going to be in the market for a bigger fish at the deadline (more on that later), and thus, while the team might have their attention elsewhere, the Philadelphia Phillies are a team that could make a similar offer and have shown interest in the past, and the Pirates will opt for that offer. Bednar would slide into Philly’s closer role rather nicely. Currently locked down by Corey Knebel, Knebel has experience in a setup role before with both Los Angeles and Milwaukee. Knebel has also blown five saves this year, so changing his role is probably a move the Phillies were considering anyways.

Best Fits: Dodgers, Twins, Phillies, Red Sox, Phillies

Prediction: Bednar joins his in-state rivals, Philadelphia

Mantiply dazzled onlookers with his remarkable performance in the All-Star Game. Still, despite the success he’s seen this season, the rumor mill surrounding Mantiply has been barren, to say the least. Teams don’t seem very interested. Perhaps it’s because his price tag has gotten too high ever since he was named an All-Star. However, that shouldn’t matter given everything else Mantiply has done.

Listen to me! He’s walked two guys all year! TWO! His strikeout-to-walk ratio is an absurd 19.0. If your team needs a middle reliever, there isn’t anyone better than Mantiply on the market this year. However, those insane stats are just all the more reason for the Diamondbacks’ to raise his price. Given that Mantiply has never experienced this level of success, it’s not hard to imagine a world where his value comes crashing down after a change of scenery.

For my money, I’d expect several teams to call the Diamondbacks about Mantiply only to hang up the phone moments later when Arizona’s first trade offer doesn’t fall anywhere near where they were hoping.

Best Fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox

Prediction: Mantiply remains a Diamondback