Are There Too Many Netflix Originals?

They say you can never too much of a good thing, and that’s certainly true about this era of television. However, sometimes it feels as though Netflix’s ever-expanding library is challenging this age-old expression. As the streaming service releases more and more shows and movies within a shorter time frame, it’s hard not to wonder if these new titles are getting enough time to find their audiences or if the factory mindset of Netflix is jeopardizing the streaming service’s own premieres.

Because Netflix is notoriously secretive about its numbers, we don’t know which Netflix originals are hits and which are flops. In this nebulous ratings-free world, any show or movie can be an overwhelming success or a colossal failure, and unless there’s awards attention or a giant marketing push form Netflix’s side, it’s difficult to tell which is which. The Get Down’s surprise cancellation is the best example of the confusing liminal state Netflix’s original content lives in, as first pointed out by The Ringer’s Victor Luckerson. In his article “In Netflix’s Upside-Down, Stranger Things Is A Hit Before It Even Premieres,” Luckerson mentions how seven months before the show’s cancellation, Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos spoke about how well the show performed during an earnings call. It’s odd that during a time when one company has so completely revolutionized the world of entertainment we still know so very little about who’s watching its shows and movies. And with more content being released by the day, the question of who’s watching what becomes even more interesting.

Over the past six months, Netflix has released 144 new originals. This number includes everything from star-studded freshman shows, returning seasons of beloved classics, stand up specials, children’s programming, niche interest titles, and indie film gems. They run the gambit from Orange Is the New Black to ID-0. That’s a staggering amount of new content, but what’s even more interesting is how that content is released. It’s not unusual for Netflix of premiere multiple originals on the same day. On May 30, the streaming service premiered three big-name titles at once — Season 5 its flagship original drama House of Cards, Season 2 of its cult comedy F Is for Family, and a likely expensive stand up special from Sarah Silverman. A little more than a week later, it premiered Season 5 of Orange Is the New Black. That’s a lot of expensive must-see TV in a short amount of time.

And it’s possible that these multiple title premiere dates may be hurting some of Netflix’s big-budget projects. Because Netflix doesn’t release its numbers, we have no concrete metrics on this. However, we do have a relatively accurate measurement that monitors overall internet engagement — Google Trends. In May, the same month that Netflix released new seasons of House of Cards, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Bloodline, Master of None, and Sense8, the streaming service also released its Brad Pitt comedy War Machine. Filled with big stars and filmed on a $60 million budget, War Machine was a big get for Netflix as well as one of the first movies the company released as part of its big blockbuster push. Search results for the film were completely eclipsed by searches for Master of None, Sense8, Bloodline, and House of Cards:

You see that trend again for one of Netflix’s most-discussed documentaries of the year, Jerry Before Seinfeld. Though Netflix typically releases titles flashier than its consistently spectacular collection of documentaries, the Seinfeld doc was big as it is part of the $100 million deal Netflix has with the comedian. However, even with Seinfeld’s name attached, search results for the documentary were overshadowed by American Vandal, BoJack Horseman, Fuller House, and Narcos:

Based on reviews it seemed that War Machine disappointed, which could have led to the lack of interest around the movie, but it certainly didn’t help that these two big-budget projects had to compete for attention with Netflix’s other originals. When Netflix already has such a strong arsenal of established shows and in a television landscape that watches like an embarrassment of riches, it seems reasonable to assume that it’s becoming more difficult for new shows to break through the noise.

Of course Google Trends isn’t a perfect measurement. There are some shows and movies that are greatly enriched by additional research, like 2017’s Death Note or GLOW, and others that you can comfortably watch without diving into an internet rabbit hole, like Wet Hot American Summer: Ten Years Later. Likewise, just because there’s more competition than ever, that doesn’t mean new Netflix originals aren’t able to become breakout successes.

During its more recent earnings call, Sarandos said that three of Netflix’s most recent movies would have been hits at the box office — Death Note, Naked, and To the Bone. Without numbers, it’s unclear what exactly this means, but the fact that Sarandos specifically called out these movies without being directly asked about them implies they are success stories. Likewise, Netflix’s gritty Jason Bateman-led drama Ozark was arguably the show of this slow summer.  There have been other, smaller successes as well. GLOW, American Vandal, Atypical, Big Mouth, 13 Reasons Why, and Mindhunter have gain devoted fans. Okja and The Meyerowitz Stories have both been heavily praised by critics and are being mentioned in awards season conversations. However, I can’t help but wonder how these successes compare to Netflix successes in the past.

It would be difficult to find a better unconventional success story than Netflix’s BoJack Horseman. Largely written off at first by critics, the series quickly became a critical darling that demonstrated the long creative leash the streaming service was willing to give its creators. Four years later, the show has a highly devoted fan base and is often mentioned in the same breath as other great Netflix shows. Though its origin story is certainly more formulaic, House of Cards, which dominated media conversations when it first premiered, similarly broke through the mold. Both of these shows — one deeply unconventional, the other created with Netflix subscribers’ specific preferences in mind — were praised because they were great but also because they were part of a handful of Netflix originals.

Now the streaming landscape has changed, and an overwhelming amount of mixed quality Netflix originals have become so common, South Park devoted an episode to mocking the company. Big Mouth, American Vandal, and Mindhunter may be small to medium hits now, but if they were released a couple of years ago, it’s easy to imagine them being all-consuming media sensations like their Netflix peers. This is especially true of Mindhunter, a show that seems to have a strong, solid audience now, but comes from the same mind that created Netflix’s first big hit — David Fincher. That’s without discussing the pop culture flash-in-the-pan that seemed to be Marvel’s The Defenders.

But perhaps I’m thinking about this incorrectly. Traditional network and cable stations have always planned their schedules with both critical favor and mass audience appeal in mind. It’s the reason that the cult comedy Last Man on Earth and the runaway ratings hit The Orville can live on the same network. However, Netflix has been focusing on those goals as well as one other huge one — quantity. In September of 2016, Netflix Chief Financial Officer David Wells announced that in the next few years the company wants 50 percent of its library to be original content. That’s a big shift and one that justifies Netflix’s push for more and more new titles. It’s also one that should alter how we think about Netflix’s long list of original programming.

Right now, Netflix is filling out its gaps and experimenting with what does and doesn’t work. The streaming service’s early investment in stand up specials obviously paid off enough for it to dominate the space, and you can see a similar pattern in Netflix’s recent and disruptive focus on anime. If it feels like there’s too many Netflix originals for you to keep up with, that’s probably the point. The streaming service expects that you’ll miss things so that you have new undiscovered content to watch later. However, those new shows that fly under the mainstream radar, so to speak, do find audiences. It’s unclear how many of these niche investments have taken eyes away from big Netflix premieres like Narcos, The Get Down, or even House of Cards, but it’s likely not an insignificant amount. However, you could also argue that some subscribers may come to Netflix solely for this niche content.

No network has ever been in the position Netflix is in now, simultaneously responsible for changing an entire industry while uncertain about where its future lies. As Netflix invests more and gets closer to that 50 percent goal, we’ll likely have a better idea of how successful this grand plan is. In his recent cover story for Variety, Sarandos seemed very confident with the direction the company was heading in as he denounced the notion of peak TV. In the meantime, it’s as fascinating to watch Netflix grow as a company as it is to binge the hundreds of new titles bearing its name.

Netflix was reached for comment about this article. Decider will update if and when the company responds.