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emmys 2018
Television’s biggest night is almost here. The Emmys are just one week away, and that means it’s time to start speculating about who will take home a coveted statue — and who will spend their evening downing whiskeys at the bar in the Microsoft Theater. This year, there are quite a few contentious races, particularly in the show-specific categories. Which series will step in to replace Veep as Best Comedy? Will Game of Thrones nab yet another Best Drama statue, or will The Handmaid’s Tale win for the second year in a row? And what the hell is going on in the Best Limited Series race?
Sure, we could give you some of our best guesses, but we’d prefer to let the numbers speak for themselves. We’ve collected the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Scores for each Emmy-nominated show — and the score of each season nominated, because that’s really what’s important — to estimate which shows will reign supreme in the Outstanding Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series races. In some cases, the difference between the winning show and the second- and third-place finishers was just one or two percentage points, but despite facing tough competition, a clear victor (or victors) emerged in each category.
Will Rotten Tomatoes accurately predict this year’s Emmys winners, or has the ratings aggregator led us astray? Tune into the 70th Emmy Awards on Monday, September 17 to find out.
Outstanding Drama Series
The Nominees Are:
The Americans
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
This Is Us
Stranger Things
Westworld
And The Winner Is:
The Americans Season 6: 99%
Stranger Things Season 2: 94%
Game of Thrones Season 7: 94%
The Crown Season 2: 91%
The Handmaid’s Tale Season 2: 91%
This Is Us Season 2: 91%
Westworld Season 2: 86%
The Americans‘ sixth and final season was, as Rotten Tomatoes points out, absolutely amazing (we’re not sure why Season 6 isn’t at 100%, but we’ll take a one-point difference). The FX drama will face some stiff competition from the likes of Game of Thrones, the 2016 Outstanding Drama winner, and Netflix’s Stranger Things, but ultimately, it should pull out the win — and and incredibly well-deserved one, at that.
Outstanding Comedy Series
The Nominees Are:
Atlanta
Barry
black-ish
Curb Your Enthusiasm
GLOW
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
And The Winner Is:
Atlanta Season 2: 98%
Barry Season 1: 98%
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Season 4: 97% *Overall RT score. Season 4 Critic Score is unverified
black-ish Season 4: 95% *Overall RT score. Season 4 Critic Score is unverified
GLOW Season 1: 95%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Season 1: 94%
Silicon Valley Season 5: 88%
Curb Your Enthusiasm Season 10: 75%
It shouldn’t surprise you that this year’s Outstanding Comedy race is coming down to a tie. Veep‘s absence has made this category the biggest question mark of the night, although it can generally be summed up as a toss-up between Atlanta and… everyone else. While Rotten Tomatoes gives Barry the upper hand, there’s also a strong case to be made for Golden Globe-winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. If both Atlanta and The Americans can pull ahead of the competition, FX is going to have quite an after-party.
Outstanding Limited Series
The Nominees Are:
The Alienist
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Genius: Picasso
Godless
Patrick Melrose
And The Winner Is:
Patrick Melrose: 89%
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story: 88%
Godless: 87%
The Alienist: 64%
Genius: Picasso: 56%
Last year, the combined power of Big Little Lies and FEUD: Bette and Joan added some serious juice to the Outstanding Limited Series race. This year’s nominees are considerably less exciting, and the low ratings for The Alienist and Genius: Picasso seem to confirm that the Limited Series category is experiencing some whiplash after last year’s heated race. The Assassination of Gianni Versace deserves to win for its nuanced portrait of LBGT prejudice, both internal and external, but Rotten Tomatoes suggests that it will fall to Benedict Cumberbatch’s Patrick Melrose by just one point.
We’re hoping that Rotten Tomatoes is wrong on this one, but if their prediction proves true, keep your fingers crossed that Versace still gets some love in the Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie category, where Darren Criss is nominated for his starring role as serial killer Andrew Cunanan.
