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On Tuesday, June 25, 2019, Netflix confirmed the sad news that The Office would be leaving its streaming library in 2021. The show’s original distributor, NBC Universal, had outbid Netflix to take exclusive streaming rights for $100 million per year for five years.
The news wasn’t totally shocking, as NBC Universal sales chief had promised that Jim and Pam would be “coming home” during her most recent upfront celebration. Nevertheless, some industry analysts had previously predicted that NBC Universal would not want to give up the money they made from their lucrative licensing deals. And Decider’s own Scott Porch is skeptical about the impact this will even have on the streaming wars. Sure, NBC Universal needs popular content in order to launch a rival streaming service, but is it enough to get the average homeowner to subscribe? Much less cancel Netflix?
Still, the news that NBC Universal had decided to pull the trigger sent shockwaves through the industry because it meant that the so-called streaming wars were officially. Disney+, Apple+, and WarnerMedia’s unnamed streaming service have yet to launch, but taking The Office off Netflix — even 18 months in the future — is perhaps a portend of how bitter these marketplace rivalries are about to get.
It also means that other library favorites might not stay on Netflix much longer. It’s no secret that some of Netflix’s most popular content is the syndicated programs they borrow from other production houses. Last December, Vox reported that about 75% of the streamer’s most watched shows came from rival parties. The most popular title? The Office. The next five? WarnerMedia’s Friends, NBC Universal’s Parks & Recreation, ABC Disney’s Grey’s Anatomy, new Disney acquisition Fox’s New Girl, and WarnerMedia’s Supernatural.
So what’s the likelihood that those next five shows will be yanked off of Netflix in heated bidding wars? We already have some clues that at least one of those titles is being aggressively eyed by its parent company, but what about the others? Here’s how likely it is that these popular shows will be taken off Netflix in the next few years.
'Friends'
Who Owns the Rights?: WarnerMedia
Why It’s Leaving Netflix: As far back as January of this year, WarnerMedia execs have been hyping their in-development streaming service by explaining that it will feature quality over quantity. And at Winter TCA, Warners exec Kevin Reilly told reporters: “I think you can expect that sort of the crown jewels of Warner will ultimately end up on the new service. So pulling [Friends] away? [I]t certainly is something that we’re going to be looking to do. And I think for the most part, sharing destination assets like that, it is not a good model to share them. My belief is that they should be exclusive to the service.” So, it sounds very much like Friends is leaving Netflix.
Why It’s Not Leaving Netflix: Now that Netflix has lost The Office, they may have all the more incentive to double down on Friends. Additionally, it has been suggested that Friends could be licensed to both Netflix and WarnerMedia. You know, like a compromise. Plus, Netflix has already gone to the mattresses to save Friends; they could do it again.
Our Prediction: Friends will leave Netflix. It’s not so much that Netflix won’t fight for it, but it sounds like for WarnerMedia execs, Friends is their great white whale. They want to poach it from Netflix.
'Parks and Recreation'
Who Owns the Rights?: NBC Universal
Why It’s Leaving Netflix: NBC Universal’s already thrown down the gauntlet and taken The Office from Netflix, suggesting they are going to be bullish on reclaiming their IP, and Parks and Rec is arguably the next biggest title that NBC Universal is going to want exclusively on their streaming service.
Why It’s Not Leaving Netflix: Well, maybe…and just maybe…NBC Universal isn’t going to want to pony up another enormous paycheck for the exclusive rights to a comedy series. Maybe, money-wise, they can’t afford it.
Our Prediction: It’s up in the air, but we’re leaning towards it leaving Netflix. NBC Universal has already declared war on Netflix in this area; they’re going to want to finish what they started
'Grey's Anatomy'
Who Owns the Rights?: Disney
Why It’s Leaving Netflix: Combining the Disney, Marvel, Lucasfilm, National Geographic, and Fox catalogues in one place, Disney+ is considered Netflix’s biggest competition – and it hasn’t even launched yet. Plus, Disney has already announced that it’s not re-upping its current deal with Netflix, so that Disney+ will be the exclusive home for Disney films. Ergo, it’s coming for those ABC favorites.
Why It’s Not Leaving Netflix: In April, Deadline published a tip sheet that Disney provided to investors. There’s a lot of hype for original content, classic Disney titles, and the Disney channel library, but no mention of ABC shows hitting the service. Plus, it seems that Disney+ is being curated as a family-friendly streaming service. They don’t need Grey’s Anatomy.
Our Prediction: Disney will let Netflix keep Grey’s for now, but don’t be surprised if Hulu, which is mostly owned by Disney now, eventually gets the exclusive rights.
'New Girl'
Who Owns the Rights?: Disney
Why It’s Leaving Netflix: Because Netflix is going to lose all of its borrowed content?? And because every streaming service needs binge-able comedies like New Girl?
Why It’s Not Leaving Netflix: For much of the same reasons Disney likely won’t bother with Grey’s Anatomy. They have bigger fish to fry — for now.
Our Prediction: Again, it’ll likely stay on Netflix, and if it goes anywhere, it’ll wind up being Hulu. Disney+ is not going to be the place for playing True American.
'Supernatural'
Who Owns the Rights?: WarnerMedia
Why It’s Leaving Netflix: As we mentioned with regards to Friends, WarnerMedia has singled that it wants to aggressively wrestle control of their library back from Netflix. Supernatural is one of the CW’s most popular and successful shows, making it potential crown jewel content for WarnerMedia.
Why It’s Not Leaving Netflix: Going back to Reilly’s comments in January, he didn’t seem as bullish on Supernatural as he did on Friends. In fact, Supernatural wasn’t mentioned by name, even when the success of CW shows on SVOD were cited. Reilly also said that Netflix’s current deal for CW content was for older titles and that going forward, they would reassess if they would share the licensing. So maybe Supernatural isn’t a priority.
Our Prediction: …it will leave Netflix, but probably not for a long while. WarnerMedia is more interested in pulling current and future CW hits from Netflix’s grasp — think Katy Keene — than older hits. Still, we doubt that WarnerMedia won’t eventually go to bat for one of its most feverishly beloved hits.
