Trump Picks J.D. Vance for VP—As Predicted by Crypto Bettors

When it comes to former President Donald Trump’s number two, Polymarket traders successfully centered around Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) before the lawmaker officially became Trump’s vice presidential pick at the Republican National Convention on Monday.

Traders on the blockchain-based prediction platform had wagered a total of $94 million leading up to Trump’s announcement, delivered days after a failed assassination attempt on the former president’s life added a jarring twist to the 2024 presidential race and conservative confab.

Vance’s odds of becoming Trump’s running mate swelled from an 8% chance in January to 36% on Sunday. Swinging throughout the day, his odds fell to as low as 45% on Monday before climbing higher in anticipation of Trump’s green light in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

“I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance,” Trump said in a statement on Truth Social. 

While North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum had comparable odds at 37% Sunday, other members of Trump’s so-called short list, such as Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), had failed to attract traders’ backing. Some $3.2 million had been bet on Rubio specifically, with traders giving him a less than 1% chance that Trump would call his name before Republican voters.

For Rubio, a nail in the coffin came Monday afternoon. Trump waited until Monday to inform the Senator that he would not be picked as the former president’s running mate, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the conversation.

The market for Burgum soured quickly on Polymarket after publications such as Politico reported that the governor had been passed over as well. Collapsing to a 1% chance almost instantaneously, the former candidate attracted $2 million in wagers after the first GOP debate.

Among 34 distinct names, plus a “Trump family member,” the political calculations that came to a head Monday represented a high-stakes moment for Polymarket’s accuracy. Leveraging the free market in search of truth, many politics-centric bets exist that are primed for November’s presidential election, predicting odds across candidates and key battleground states.

A total of $259 million so far has been wagered on the winner of 2024's U.S. presidential election, with a 71% chance of victory currently ascribed to the former president. For Pennsylvania’s election winner alone, Polymarket traders have so far ponied up $700,000 predicting who could win.

While Polymarket traders were well positioned on Monday, they aren’t always known for having their finger on the pulse, especially when it comes to crypto and politics. 

For example, traders penciled in a 61% chance last month that “Bitcoin” would be mentioned during the debate between President Joe Biden and Trump. Indeed, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization went unmentioned during the verbal sparring match hosted that night.

Edited by Andrew Hayward